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Old School Prediction Model - Auburn (6-5, 3-4) vs #8 Alabama (10-1, 7-0)
Posted on 11/20/23 at 4:53 pm
Posted on 11/20/23 at 4:53 pm
- Auburn (6-5, 3-4) vs #8 Alabama (10-1, 7-0)
- 3:30 PM EST, CBS
- Alabama by 15.0, O/U 48.5
- Vegas Score : Alabama 32-17
Note : Stats used below and in general are ONLY P5 vs P5 games.
SACKS are included in PASSING YARDS, not RUSH YARDS
ORIGINAL ALL P5 TEAM MODEL
MODEL SCORE : ALABAMA 32 - AUBURN 17
Alabama Offense
- Passing YPA (8.16) is 116% of opponents averages allowed (7.03)
- Rushing YPA (4.69) is 107% of opponents averages allowed (4.40)
- Alabama averages 0.0819 pts per yard, 116% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0706)
Alabama Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (6.14) is 87% of opponents average (7.07)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (4.53) is 88% of opponents average (5.13)
- Alabama averages 0.0614 pts per yard allowed, 87% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0706).
Auburn Offense
- Passing YPA (5.25) is 73% of opponents averages allowed (7.15)
- Rushing YPA (4.72) is 97% of opponents averages allowed (4.89)
- Auburn averages 0.0704 pts per yard, 92% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0766)
Auburn Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (6.26) is 90% of opponents average (6.98)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (5.22) is 103% of opponents average (5.09)
- Auburn averages 0.0585 pts per yard allowed, 81% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0719)
PREDICTION
Alabama - 32
Auburn - 17
Alabama
- 394 total yards on 65 plays (6.06 YPP)
- 197 net pass yards on 27 dropbacks (7.29 YPA)
- 197 rush yards on 38 rushes (5.19 YPA)
Auburn
- 275 total yards on 63 plays (4.37 YPP)
- 109 net pass yards on 24 dropbacks (4.53 YPA)
- 167 rush yards on 39 rushes (4.27 YPA)
- 3:30 PM EST, CBS
- Alabama by 15.0, O/U 48.5
- Vegas Score : Alabama 32-17
Note : Stats used below and in general are ONLY P5 vs P5 games.
SACKS are included in PASSING YARDS, not RUSH YARDS
ORIGINAL ALL P5 TEAM MODEL
MODEL SCORE : ALABAMA 32 - AUBURN 17
Alabama Offense
- Passing YPA (8.16) is 116% of opponents averages allowed (7.03)
- Rushing YPA (4.69) is 107% of opponents averages allowed (4.40)
- Alabama averages 0.0819 pts per yard, 116% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0706)
Alabama Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (6.14) is 87% of opponents average (7.07)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (4.53) is 88% of opponents average (5.13)
- Alabama averages 0.0614 pts per yard allowed, 87% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0706).
Auburn Offense
- Passing YPA (5.25) is 73% of opponents averages allowed (7.15)
- Rushing YPA (4.72) is 97% of opponents averages allowed (4.89)
- Auburn averages 0.0704 pts per yard, 92% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0766)
Auburn Defense
- Passing YPA Allowed (6.26) is 90% of opponents average (6.98)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (5.22) is 103% of opponents average (5.09)
- Auburn averages 0.0585 pts per yard allowed, 81% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0719)
PREDICTION
Alabama - 32
Auburn - 17
Alabama
- 394 total yards on 65 plays (6.06 YPP)
- 197 net pass yards on 27 dropbacks (7.29 YPA)
- 197 rush yards on 38 rushes (5.19 YPA)
Auburn
- 275 total yards on 63 plays (4.37 YPP)
- 109 net pass yards on 24 dropbacks (4.53 YPA)
- 167 rush yards on 39 rushes (4.27 YPA)
This post was edited on 11/21/23 at 12:21 pm
3
Posted on 11/20/23 at 5:20 pm to SummerOfGeorge
It's an Iron Bowl in Jerden Hayur between a very good Alabama team and an Auburn team that just got skullfricked by New Mexico State. We'll get a 20-14 game where we have to knock down a last second Hail Mary. You know it, I know it, the American people know it.
Posted on 11/20/23 at 5:40 pm to Robot Santa
I think we destroy them. We only seem to get those kinds of voodoo games when they have 8 wins.
Posted on 11/20/23 at 5:49 pm to YStar
Going to be a beatdown in cowtown.
Posted on 11/20/23 at 6:12 pm to YStar
2021 Auburn had 6 wins and had a 99.9% chance to win the game in the 4th quarter. Bama broke the curse, but it took a miracle. That said, this defense isn’t the 3rd and Golding defense we’ve seen the past 4 years.
Posted on 11/20/23 at 6:24 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Just for fun, you should run it including the New Mexico state game. 
Posted on 11/21/23 at 7:08 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Auburn Defense - Passing YPA Allowed (6.26) is 90% of opponents average (6.98)
- Rushing YPA Allowed (5.22) is 103% of opponents average (5.09)
- Auburn averages 0.0585 pts per yard allowed, 81% of opponents pts per yard allowed (0.0719)
Would like SOG opinion on this but these stats seem to suggest that Auburn’s defense has been living a bit off turnovers, really good red zone defense, and’/or luck. Their yards given up per attempt relative to opp average is significantly higher than their points given up per play relative to opp average.
Is Auburn’s defense living on borrowed time and ripe to get hammered?
Posted on 11/21/23 at 7:50 am to Night Vision
I think Auburn will be amped in the beginning. If we start fast, however, their confidence and swag will tank. I think we clobber them
Posted on 11/21/23 at 8:42 am to elposter
quote:
Is Auburn’s defense living on borrowed time and ripe to get hammered?
They got hammered last Saturday night.
Seriously though, for what they've got to work with their defensive staff has done a very good job this year. Aside from the Arkansas game, their offense has been putrid against teams with a pulse yet they've only been blown out twice (LSU and New Mexico State
). When you do that over a full season, it's more than living on the edge. They're not bad, but if Alabama's Tennessee forward offense shows up and Alabama's defense does their normal AU's will eventually break down.
This post was edited on 11/21/23 at 8:44 am
Posted on 11/21/23 at 9:02 am to elposter
quote:
Would like SOG opinion on this but these stats seem to suggest that Auburn’s defense has been living a bit off turnovers, really good red zone defense, and’/or luck. Their yards given up per attempt relative to opp average is significantly higher than their points given up per play relative to opp average.
Yes - their red zone defense has been top 10 or so nationally this year I think. They give up a lot of yards and are pretty bad against the run.
Posted on 11/21/23 at 9:11 am to SummerOfGeorge
Word over on BOL is Payton Thorne was in a boot on Sunday.
If he can't go I expect to see a ton of QB runs by Robby Ashford. They may not even attempt a pass.
If he can't go I expect to see a ton of QB runs by Robby Ashford. They may not even attempt a pass.
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