re: Bama by the Numbers - Missouri Week

Went and looked at the box score for that game from last season.

We were up 6-0 late in the 2nd quarter but scored a rushing TD after an interception in plus territory. The longest drive of the first half for Mizzou was 9 plays after going down 13-0. Drew Pine threw two more interceptions in the third quarter. Once again not having any real sustained drives until their last possession of the game where they went 14 plays in 6:47 when Alabama was firmly in shell coverage mode. They failed to score on 4th and goal.

Their backup quarterback straight up lost them this game. He went 6/12 with 3 INTs. Their two best drives were a 2 minute drill at the end of the 1st half and a drive in the 4th quarter down 34-0 where they methodically drove down the field while Alabama was cycling depth in and out liberally.

I don't think there is anything to be learned from that game other than in the NIL era you can straight up get humiliated if the wrong one or two players ends up being unavailable. Pribula may or may not be Brady Cook but he sure as hell is better than Drew Pyne by all action I've seen of Mizzou this year.

Wommack doesn't really have the reputation Saban, Smart, or Pruitt had for putting young starters in a blender. His defense in the backend does seem to prey on bad quarterbacks. However, right now, I'm leaning towards Pribula being one of the better QBs in the SEC along side Ty Simpson.

Additionally, Mizzou has the best group of pass rushers we've seen thus far this season. Definitely the best since our opener v. FSU. Their secondary is exploitable if Simpson can have consistent pockets but that is the big question heading into this game.

The vague shape of how FSU upset Alabama can be sketched out for Mizzou based on what we think they may be. Not good defensively but a good defense for playing with a lead. Offense with a QB who can run around a bit and a rushing attack that really tries to attack the edges and punish over-pursuit.

My opinion on this game is that Alabama needs a fast start or Mizzou presents the specific risks FSU created where they're shortening the game on us, we're behind, and our OL is not really great at handling pure speed rushers. We need one of those TD-stop-TD or stop-TD-stop-TD type of starts to the game. Alabama showed last week that they can win a game where they don't immediately have firm control of a game. However, Mizzou may end up being one of the better offenses in this conference. It is going to be hard to seize control over a game when the other team is capable of controlling the ball or scoring fast with the run game and Alabama may not be that sound against the run (we shall see).

That’s a good breakdown and what I think as well. Missouri is dangerous. We can’t turn it over. Period. Anything like that could be bad for us in the stretch. If we can run some and control the clock like we have, we will be in the game no issues.

I think Missouri's gaudy third-down conversion percentage is a combination of two things:

1) They've got a great rushing attack, so their third-down yardage is usually a pretty small requirement;

2) They've played almost no one with a pulse.

If they convert 60% of their third downs against us, we'll lose -- unless our offense has another Georgia-type game and/or we get some turnovers.

I expect them to convert about 40% of their third downs. More than we'd want, but not insurmountable. If we can grind out 6+ minute drives for touchdowns we'll be in good shape.

If they convert 50% or more of their third downs, we'll either lose or be in a dogfight to the end.

Has Jalen Hale participated any this season?

quote:

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A true armless boxing match

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You ever seen Kangaroos fight? Don't get caught unawares by an armless boxing match.