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re: Alabama Board Coronavirus Thread
Posted on 8/3/20 at 10:40 am to bamameister
Posted on 8/3/20 at 10:40 am to bamameister
quote:Melodramatic much? To date, there have been six COVID-related deaths in people under 25 in Alabama out of about 20,150 cases. That's a 0.030% CFR, which is very likely 10x higher than the actual IFR due to asymptomatic cases and those who weren't tested.
Now that our young ones are being put on the front lines, I think all of us are about to have our convictions and politics put to the ultimate test.
To put it into perspective, in an average year approximately 10 kids under 18 die in Alabama from the flu. There are approximately 214 traffic fatalities each year in the same age group (0-25).
EDIT: updated for incorrect age group statistics from ADPH website.
This post was edited on 8/3/20 at 10:53 am
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Posted on 8/3/20 at 11:05 am to bamameister
quote:
And if the child dies?
I don't think they view that as a serious possibility.
At least, I hope that's the case, given this policy.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 11:14 am to TideCPA
quote:
Melodramatic much? To date, there have been six COVID-related deaths in people under 25 in Alabama out of about 20,150 cases. That's a 0.030% CFR, which is very likely 10x higher than the actual IFR due to asymptomatic cases and those who weren't tested.
To put it into perspective, in an average year approximately 10 kids under 18 die in Alabama from the flu. There are approximately 214 traffic fatalities each year in the same age group (0-25).
What perspective? The vast majority of this plague has been managed with our children at home. As I stated earlier, going back to a social setting like school and introducing the naivety and immaturity that just kids are going to give you there is going to be a ton of demographics with our youth that we don't know until it happens. What we do know is that regardless of age or location the fall and winter months promise an escalation of this epidemic.
Pies and charts don't exist that can say how this is going to play out for our schoolchildren. And this will be true, beyond your continued hubris.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 11:34 am to bamameister
quote:The fact that you ignore the actual data we have as it relates to COVID in children is your own problem.
What perspective? The vast majority of this plague has been managed with our children at home. As I stated earlier, going back to a social setting like school and introducing the naivety and immaturity that just kids are going to give you there is going to be a ton of demographics with our youth that we don't know until it happens. What we do know is that regardless of age or location the fall and winter months promise an escalation of this epidemic.
Pies and charts don't exist that can say how this is going to play out for our schoolchildren.
- We know for a fact that 6 people under 25 have died from COVID in Alabama out of a population of approximately 20,150 cases. ADPH
- We know for a fact that the number of cases grossly understates the true number of those who have been infected, with the latest estimates of anywhere from 6x to 24x reported cases. Study
- Using the CDC estimate of infections as 10x cases, we can conclude that 200,000 people in Alabama under 25 have already been infected with COVID (likely higher for this population due to the fact that over 90% of children will have mild or no symptoms)
- Given a conservative estimate of 200,000 to-date infections in 0-25 year olds in Alabama along with 6 deaths, we can estimate that at least 15% of that population HAS ALREADY HAD THE VIRUS.
- Based on that, we can conclude that if every single person under the age of 25 in Alabama contracts the virus, we are looking at 40 deaths in total.
The fact that you're analogizing this to war ("front lines"), as if sending a child to school in the face of the data we have now is morally or statistically equivalent to sending them off to invade Iwo Jima, is fear porn at its core. They are literally multiple times more likely to die in a car crash going to or from school than from COVID at school.
This post was edited on 8/3/20 at 11:36 am
Posted on 8/3/20 at 11:45 am to TideCPA
That data doesn't really tell us what may happen when schools open back up because kids have been home since mid March, before cases here started really escalating.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 11:52 am to The Spleen
There's also the minor detail of having minimal understanding of what the long term effects of even an asymptomatic infection are.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 11:52 am to TideCPA
Agree that the death rate for school age kids is extremely low.
However, in your data, mixing the 18-25 age group with school age kids 0-17 may skew the "already infected" numbers. That 18-25 group usually has very high infection rates whereas the 0-17 age group have been largely at home since April.
If I were responsible for kids' welfare, I would be a lot more concerned about long term effects (lung damage et al) than just them dying from Covid.
I would not be cavalier about kids catching it only just because I thought it unlikely they die.
However, in your data, mixing the 18-25 age group with school age kids 0-17 may skew the "already infected" numbers. That 18-25 group usually has very high infection rates whereas the 0-17 age group have been largely at home since April.
If I were responsible for kids' welfare, I would be a lot more concerned about long term effects (lung damage et al) than just them dying from Covid.
I would not be cavalier about kids catching it only just because I thought it unlikely they die.
This post was edited on 8/4/20 at 11:31 am
Posted on 8/3/20 at 11:54 am to The Spleen
quote:Do you have any studies that suggest COVID becomes more lethal in children when transmitted on school grounds? I would honestly love to see that data; that would certainly be an interesting development. I've never heard of a virus that acts differently based on where its transmission occurs.
That data doesn't really tell us what may happen when schools open back up because kids have been home since mid March, before cases here started really escalating.
I mean, we literally have data from 20,000+ cases in this population in Alabama alone. That's quite significant as far as data is concerned. We've also had day care facilities open for months around the state and teenagers roaming around on vacations and in the workplace all summer, yet deaths in the under-25 age group remain almost zero.
You can argue about schools reopening and how it will impact community spread, because that is something we don't yet know, but trying to argue that it will somehow cause a massive spike in CFR in children is, plain and simple, fear porn based on literally zero evidence.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 11:56 am to TideCPA
quote:
The fact that you ignore the actual data we have as it relates to COVID in children is your own problem.
Don't forget the part I mentioned that relates to your hubris pride. It has apparently made you clairvoyant.
quote:
The fact that you're analogizing this to war ("front lines"), as if sending a child to school in the face of the data we have now is morally or statistically equivalent to sending them off to invade Iwo Jima, is fear porn at its core.
Dead is dead. There have been over a 150,000 funerals in this country in the last 6 months. By contrast, the Vietnam war lasted approximately 20 years and about 58,000 American soldiers lost their lives. In 6 months we've nearly tripled the casualties in this country. Unlike 1973 when this country decided enough was enough and got out of there, Covid-19 is not letting anyone go. Frontlines is where anyone puts themselves that can readily catch this stuff. Your idea of being "overdramatic" must be something just short of an apocalypse.
Argue all day about whether football should be using war-like terms during an actual war, but this country is fighting for their lives, not putting points on a scoreboard.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 12:08 pm to bamameister
quote:And almost none of them are children, which you seemingly can't grasp.
Dead is dead. There have been over a 150,000 funerals in this country in the last 6 months.
quote:Yes, out of about 2.7 million troops. There are over 328 million people in the US. Comparing war deaths to disease is disingenuous for a number of reasons. There are about as many flu deaths EACH YEAR as total Vietnam war deaths. Does that mean leaving our houses in the winter is somehow equivalent to fighting in a war? Again, melodrama. Fear porn. Whatever you want to call it.
By contrast, the Vietnam war lasted approximately 20 years and about 58,000 American soldiers lost their lives.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 12:25 pm to TideCPA
quote:
Yes, out of about 2.7 million troops. There are over 328 million people in the US. Comparing war deaths to disease is disingenuous for a number of reasons. There are about as many flu deaths EACH YEAR as total Vietnam war deaths. Does that mean leaving our houses in the winter is somehow equivalent to fighting in a war? Again, melodrama. Fear porn. Whatever you want to call it.
And of those 150,000 funerals, you apparently haven't been to enough of the right ones. That's the thing about getting older, in time, we all do.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 12:31 pm to TideCPA
Your data of 0-25 would likely show a majority of those cases currently being in the 18-25 range. States that separate by more specific ages show that 18-25 group to usually be very high.
Which means I would also think differently if deciding college vs HS vs elementary schools.
I'm certainly not arguing that my main concern would be death rate if I were responsible for making decisions about these kid's welfare. However, in addition to simply igniting more community spread at the specific time many states are in the midst of their worst problem so far, I would not be so focused on death rate alone that I ignored the possibility of long term effects like lung damage et al if I were responsible for the kid's welfare.
Which means I would also think differently if deciding college vs HS vs elementary schools.
I'm certainly not arguing that my main concern would be death rate if I were responsible for making decisions about these kid's welfare. However, in addition to simply igniting more community spread at the specific time many states are in the midst of their worst problem so far, I would not be so focused on death rate alone that I ignored the possibility of long term effects like lung damage et al if I were responsible for the kid's welfare.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 12:34 pm to TideCPA
quote:
Fear porn.
I like that. Sorry, but I'm stealing it.
I've been on 2 COVID calls since about this time yesterday. One of them is probably going to die, the other should have driven himself to the hospital instead of tying up an ambulance. I have seen the degrees of the illness face to face.
My daughter will be starting 5th grade a week from today in the classroom even though our system is offering a virtual option. IMO the risk to her developmental and emotional well being is greater than the risk to her health.
I will not judge parents that feel differently, but I am of the complete opinion that we cannot live our lives in fear or a bubble.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 12:42 pm to Robot Santa
quote:
There's also the minor detail of having minimal understanding of what the long term effects of even an asymptomatic infection are.
Serious question, not trying to flame (or even disagree, for that matter).
Assuming this virus is here to stay, at what point do we determine what the long-term effects are? How many years of study would that take?
What if the vaccine is not totally effective, or we find that the virus mutates?
What do we do in the meantime?
This post was edited on 8/3/20 at 12:43 pm
Posted on 8/3/20 at 12:42 pm to bamameister
quote:
And of those 150,000 funerals, you apparently haven't been to enough of the right ones. That's the thing about getting older, in time, we all do.
Dude, literally everything you post is just dripping with histrionics (if not entirely comprised of it). "Front lines", "150,000 funerals", "this country is fighting for their lives", attempts to compare the risk of attending school to fighting in Vietnam, etc.
I can do it too: There have been 1.25 million non-COVID funerals in the last 6 months in the US. That's over 4x the US battle deaths in World War II, which spanned nearly 4 years (the American portion). That's 445 D-Day invasions! Scary, right?
Posted on 8/3/20 at 12:50 pm to TideCPA
quote:
Dude, literally everything you post is just dripping with histrionics (if not entirely comprised of it). "Front lines", "150,000 funerals", "this country is fighting for their lives", attempts to compare the risk of attending school to fighting in Vietnam, etc.
I can do it too: There have been 1.25 million non-COVID funerals in the last 6 months in the US. That's over 4x the US battle deaths in World War II, which spanned nearly 4 years (the American portion). That's 445 D-Day invasions! Scary, right?
So we are all going to die. No one has ever gotten out of here alive. Check the history books. The idea is still to put it off as long as you can.
Then there are those who put very little value on their own life. You could imagine what they think about others.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 1:08 pm to paperwasp
quote:
Serious question, not trying to flame (or even disagree, for that matter).
Assuming this virus is here to stay, at what point do we determine what the long-term effects are? How many years of study would that take?
What if the vaccine is not totally effective, or we find that the virus mutates?
What do we do in the meantime?
If I were calling the shots as it relates to schools:
Precise National standards which tie measures of current community spread (positive test % among 4 to 6 other factors) directly to when schools can reopen. They re-open along standardized degrees of safety protocol based on corresponding levels of community spread.
That would mean communities like Escambia Co Alabama, currently among the worst in the country for rampant spread, would need to deal with that before throwing the match of school reopening into the fire.
However, a school in an Alabama county with very low spread (or Vermont or Oregon for that matter) can reopen now along prescribed degrees.
Everyone would have known these standards since April/May. No surprises, no politics: just the data. Prescribed standards that fit the exact problems of spread a local area is experiencing.
That removes local politics and in some cases the decision from the local leaders that may not have been making the best ones so far if they're experiencing uncontrolled, exponential spread over 6 months into this.
That way you also put yourself in line to use the examples of countries a bit ahead of us (Germany et. al.) that have successfully reopened schools AFTER they got community spread in those areas under control.
This post was edited on 8/3/20 at 8:47 pm
Posted on 8/3/20 at 1:12 pm to bamameister
quote:Histrionics.
So we are all going to die.
quote:Histrionics.
No one has ever gotten out of here alive. Check the history books.
quote:Not entirely, no. There is and will always be a balancing act between liberty and safety in human society. The median decedent age for COVID-19 is 78, which equals the average US life expectancy. Materially restricting the financial, mental, and social health of the majority of the population who are not at risk in an attempt to prolong the life of a group which has, on average, met the US average life expectancy is actuarially questionable. This isn't the Spanish Flu, which was demographically an entirely different animal. Besides, almost nobody is advocating throwing caution to the wind as it relates to at-risk groups. There are ways to address that risk without taking the proverbial flamethrower to a termite nest in the wall.
The idea is still to put it off as long as you can.
quote:Histrionics.
Then there are those who put very little value on their own life. You could imagine what they think about others.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 1:20 pm to TideCPA
quote:
Histrionics.
Value system.
Posted on 8/3/20 at 1:28 pm to paperwasp
quote:
Assuming this virus is here to stay, at what point do we determine what the long-term effects are? How many years of study would that take?
Probably a really long time unfortunately. Hell, shingles doesn't show up for like 30+ years after chickenpox. I'm not saying we need to continue living like this for 30 years in order to study long term effects or anything. That was more meant to be in response to the flippant attitude towards children being infected simply because it doesn't kill them immediately. The bottom line is that our knowledge of this virus is still very limited, but a ton of people are acting like a few months of data tells us everything we ever need to know about it.
This post was edited on 8/3/20 at 1:29 pm
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