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re: 2017-18 Alabama Basketball Season Thread: 20-16 (10-11)
Posted on 12/19/17 at 8:05 am to GenesChin
Posted on 12/19/17 at 8:05 am to GenesChin
quote:
I disagree. The weighting of road/home losses is absurd + it doesn't care "who" you beat
That's true - good point.
What do you think of ELO Chess?
Currently has our schedule ranked out in the following order, which seems pretty reasonable based on watching these teams play and knowing their resumes so far :
14. Arizona
17. Oklahoma
28. Minnesota
30. Alabama
34. Rhode Island
36. Texas
53. BYU
59. UCF
82. UT-Arlington
118. Louisiana Tech
128. Lipscomb
197. Mercer
351. Alabama A&M
This post was edited on 12/19/17 at 8:24 am
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Posted on 12/19/17 at 8:44 am to Bamafan15
quote:
Texas hit a game winner at home to beat Tennessee State (who is now 5-5) 47-46
We BETTER NOT lose to Texas or I’m gonna melt lol
Yeah, and that same Texas team took both Duke and Gonzaga to overtime on a neutral floor.
Hoops ain't football. One off games happen.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 8:49 am to JustGetItRight
quote:
Yeah, and that same Texas team took both Duke and Gonzaga to overtime on a neutral floor.
And beat Louisiana Tech handily just a few nights ago. The same Louisiana Tech we beat by 3.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 9:15 am to McGregor
Hate that for the second year in a row I have to miss a game in my own backyard. Two kids playing games tonight outrank watching Bama. I hope the atmosphere is as good tonight as it was last year. I like the idea of UAH getting to play in front of a big crowd also. Coach Acuff teams play a fun style that will entertain the crowd as they show up for the Bama game.
This post was edited on 12/19/17 at 9:18 am
Posted on 12/19/17 at 9:29 am to ArabianKnight
Women's team is playing at noon today. They're having food trucks parked outside of CC and you can bring it in.
Cool concept. Probably not going to work much for today, but you do it for the men's team on a Wednesday night game, it'd benefit both parties.
Cool concept. Probably not going to work much for today, but you do it for the men's team on a Wednesday night game, it'd benefit both parties.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 9:32 am to GenesChin
quote:
There is no difference for Alabama if they beat UK or Auburn at home for example. Both wins are the same for RPI given they are both on the schedule
I really don't see that as much of a problem. Let's say we go 1-1 in those 2 games. Should Alabama really be viewed as that much better if the one win was against Kentucky and the one loss against Auburn instead of vice versa? I mean if you want to look at what Key wins they have at the end of the season I get it, but I don't see anything wrong with the scenario you listed.
I do, however, agree that the weighting of Home vs Away games needs to be fixed. I just believe much more needs to be fixed with KenPom.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 9:43 am to Bamafan15
quote:
Creighton grabs a 90-81 win over UT Arlington. Marcus Foster went off for 32pts(12-20fg). Martin Krampelj chipped in with 8pts + 11reb. #Creighton
UT Arlington is probably going to have to win their conference to get in. Their experience and chemistry is going to really cause frustration for some team in March if they make it in.
Looking back on that game, I'm still amazed we came out with a W. Their main two guys, Hervey and Neal, shot a combined 8-11 from 3, had 15 assist, and 15/30 from the field.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 10:25 am to BigBird09
quote:
I don't care if a team doesn't embarrass crappy teams by 30
I've been a fan of adjusting margin of victory to assuming each win is say by 20 + actual margin. The scalar difference now between a 1 & 10 pt win is 10x as large while in the above system it would be ~1.5x (21pt vs 30pt victory) which is much more reasonable
A team would get rewarded for larger margins of victory but the value of beating someone by say 20 v 40 is significantly reduced
quote:
I do, however, agree that the weighting of Home vs Away games needs to be fixed. I just believe much more needs to be fixed with KenPom.
I feel KenPom is much closer than RPI, especially pre conference schedule, to gauge team's quality.
No argument that KenPom has some major flaws in my mind though
This post was edited on 12/19/17 at 10:27 am
Posted on 12/19/17 at 10:45 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
What do you think of ELO Chess?
I like ELO, it's a pretty simple system but there are some issues. I can't find the white papers on how ELO ratings are calc'd so just based on gut reaction
K Factor: K factor is the sensitivity to game results, if this is wrong, the system doesn't work effectively
Initial Rankings: ELO ratings delta is based on the difference between expected / actual result * K Factor, how the beginning of the year rankings are made affect how legit ELO is (more games though = "more credible")
H/A Weighting: Is it like RPI with a static H/A rating, or do teams have adj H/A ratings to influence expected results? I mean, it is harder to win at Rupp than at Mercer. In a good TN year, it is hard to win at Bolin but easy in a down empty arena year
Conference Matchup Problems: Once conference play starts, a team's max ELO rating is effectively set. Depending on how initial rankings are made, it could be in a conference/team's interest to play easier schedules
Margin of Victory: I'm a believer that "good wins" matter. There is a difference between beating a North Carolina by 1 pt and beating them by 10-15pt, how do the systems take that into account if at all?
quote:
ELO Chess?
My preferred method would be to do a dominance rating. Basically, something to the effect of either the avg Win probability for the game or amount of time you were expected to win the game
Basically, if you are up by 50 with 10min left and put in your walkons who let the score dwindle to 15, your Win Prob% is always going to ~99.9% even as your lead shrinks
Alternatively, if at the end of a game where you are down 1 with 1 min left and your win prob% throughout the game was 50/50, you shouldn't be punished if FTs + miss 3 = Loss by 8-9
Posted on 12/19/17 at 11:10 am to Bamafan15
quote:
Arizona lost Allonzo Trier to a knee injury tonight. Not sure how bad it is
If Trier is out, that is a game changer for them. He is such a huge part of that offense/team. While getting Alkins back will offset some of the loss, it is putting a lot more pressure on PG JaxCartwright + FR Alex Barcello since Allonzo was carrying a lot of ball handling responsibility
Looks like later today they'll have an update from the DRs
quote:
Sean Miller provides an update on Allonzo Trier’s left knee injury. Says it’s possible that it’s a bone bruise since the knees collided so Trier could be “out a day” or it could be worse. Miller says trainers will evaluate more tomorrow morning.
This post was edited on 12/19/17 at 11:22 am
Posted on 12/19/17 at 11:40 am to GenesChin
quote:
My preferred method would be to do a dominance rating. Basically, something to the effect of either the avg Win probability for the game or amount of time you were expected to win the game Basically, if you are up by 50 with 10min left and put in your walkons who let the score dwindle to 15, your Win Prob% is always going to ~99.9% even as your lead shrinks Alternatively, if at the end of a game where you are down 1 with 1 min left and your win prob% throughout the game was 50/50, you shouldn't be punished if FTs + miss 3 = Loss by 8-9
Agree - kind of a garbage time method (like what Connelly does with S&P+).
Posted on 12/19/17 at 11:41 am to GenesChin
So, obviously ya'll know Donta Hall has shown incredible improvement, but I'd like to emphasize just have valuable he has been in his expanded responsibility
Donta Stats
% of Min - 60.2% (2016 48.5%)
% of Shots (i.e. % of team shots by DH) - 19.4% (2016 14.9%)
O Rating- 128.7 #89 Nat'l (2016 119.0 #150)
eFG- 75% Nat'l #6 (2016- 65.8%)
OReb%- 11.2% Nat'l #153 (2016- 11.1%)
DReb%- 23.5% Nat'l #111 (2016- 20.0%)
Block%- 10.2% Nat'l #39 (2016 8.1% #50 **goes down in conf play)
FT%- 69% (2016 60%, 2015 43.2%)
**Fouls Committed/40 - 3.0 (2016- 5.1, 2015- 7.9)**
I think the fouls committed is the absolute biggest improvement. With Giddens averaging 8.2/40min, Alabama needs Hall to stay out of foul trouble. Thus far, Hall has shown the ability to improve in post D + rebounding while also not fouling. This is a huge deal
Going for 4 posts in a row here on your board
Donta Stats
% of Min - 60.2% (2016 48.5%)
% of Shots (i.e. % of team shots by DH) - 19.4% (2016 14.9%)
O Rating- 128.7 #89 Nat'l (2016 119.0 #150)
eFG- 75% Nat'l #6 (2016- 65.8%)
OReb%- 11.2% Nat'l #153 (2016- 11.1%)
DReb%- 23.5% Nat'l #111 (2016- 20.0%)
Block%- 10.2% Nat'l #39 (2016 8.1% #50 **goes down in conf play)
FT%- 69% (2016 60%, 2015 43.2%)
**Fouls Committed/40 - 3.0 (2016- 5.1, 2015- 7.9)**
I think the fouls committed is the absolute biggest improvement. With Giddens averaging 8.2/40min, Alabama needs Hall to stay out of foul trouble. Thus far, Hall has shown the ability to improve in post D + rebounding while also not fouling. This is a huge deal
Going for 4 posts in a row here on your board
Posted on 12/19/17 at 11:44 am to GenesChin
Agree - he's gone from a very raw set of skills to a legitimately well rounded big man. He must really, really work hard, because those improvements you showed above are only made through constant repetition and work.
He's our best NBA prospect outside of Sexton right now IMHO, by far.
He's our best NBA prospect outside of Sexton right now IMHO, by far.
This post was edited on 12/19/17 at 11:46 am
Posted on 12/19/17 at 11:56 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
He's our best NBA prospect outside of Sexton right now IMHO, by far.
You think he potentially goes pro after this year? I could see him getting an early RD2 grade. He probably would benefit with another year if he can really develop a shot (threat on wide open 3s + FT 75+%) + bulk to 240-245lb and stay athletic
I think Hall's limited ability with the ball in his hand will hurt his NBA projection. He either needs to become more of a spacing threat (shooting) or great post passer to offset that
This post was edited on 12/19/17 at 11:58 am
Posted on 12/19/17 at 12:04 pm to GenesChin
quote:
You think he potentially goes pro after this year? I could see him getting an early RD2 grade. He probably would benefit with another year if he can really develop a shot (threat on wide open 3s + FT 75+%) + bulk to 240-245lb and stay athletic I think Hall's limited ability with the ball in his hand will hurt his NBA projection. He either needs to become more of a spacing threat (shooting) or great post passer to offset that
That's one of those things I really don't know. I think the biggest thing with him will be whether scouts and NBA people think he has a higher ceiling offensively. If they think there is still improvement to be made in his offensive game, I could see him coming back and doing what you mentioned (really try and develop a midrange game). If they tell him they think he basically is what he is and could be a 2nd round pick who sticks as a long athletic bench guy, then I could see him leaving.
He certainly isn't a 1st round pick right now. But he could find a very nice niche (though his skillset isn't as applicable to the current NBA as it would have been even 10 years ago).
My gut would be he sees his improvement year over year and thinks he can make a big push next year to the 1st round. But, you never know with kids and what they hear/want to hear.
This post was edited on 12/19/17 at 12:06 pm
Posted on 12/19/17 at 12:28 pm to SummerOfGeorge
Hall would def have a role in the modern NBA. Long, athletic rim protectors that score around 10-11 pts a game are valuable.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 12:52 pm to Bamainva40
quote:
Long, athletic rim protectors that score around 10-11 pts a game are valuable.
I don't think he's going to be a 10-11 pt a game guy in the NBA at this point, but the other part of your assessment is very true.
And, he could grow into an offensive threat (in some capacity). There are a multitude of NBA big guys who have done that (Capella, D. Jordan, G. Dieng, Nurkic). Or, he could end up just being a rebound/rim protect guy like Biyombo, Tarik Black, Montrezl Harrell, etc.
I do think he clearly has a place in the league.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 12:57 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
I don't think he's going to be a 10-11 pt a game guy in the NBA at this point,
He is barely a 10-11ppg college player, very unlikely that he could get there in the NBA
Posted on 12/19/17 at 1:07 pm to GenesChin
Different style of game in NBA...If a big man runs the floor these days he can't get 10 a game like a DeAndre Jordan . Hall is averaging 12 a game right now and as George mentioned he's improved a lot.
Posted on 12/19/17 at 1:13 pm to GenesChin
quote:
You think he potentially goes pro after this year?
If he continues to play at this level, I'd say odds are higher than 50/50.
He's a great shot-blocker, Uber athletic, has stayed out of foul trouble, and has shown a very impressive offensive game this year. He has been scoring with post moves, put backs, getting in perfect position for dump offs (a highly underrated, but highly sought after NBA skill) and most importantly hitting his FTs this year. Most NBA scouts view FT percentage as an indicator for expandable jump shot range. IF he keeps playing at this level, late first round wouldn't surprise me in the least.
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