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re: 2017-18 Alabama Basketball Season Thread: 20-16 (10-11)
Posted on 1/4/18 at 12:33 pm to BigBird09
Posted on 1/4/18 at 12:33 pm to BigBird09
quote:
Far from "very very doable".
Right now, based on some GenesChin personal alterations (aka #Sh*tStatistics) to KenPom Win% and assuming independence between games, I have Bama going 17-18W regular season (61.3% 17W or more, 40.65% 18W or more). Given that I'd favor Bama RD1 in SECT, I'd say the dealbreaker would be RD2 which Bama could win too
I'd say to "feel okay" (prob% of getting to 19W >40% according to GC) about where Bama sits in order to get to 19 regular season wins your record should be
End of Jan Record (2/1) - 15-7 win (6-2 in next 8 Games)
2/18 After UK Pre Arkansas - 17-10 (8-5 in next 13 games)
If Bama just takes care of games they "should" win, they won't need to "upset" anyone to get there
This post was edited on 1/4/18 at 1:51 pm
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Posted on 1/4/18 at 12:39 pm to GenesChin
Lunardi’s latest bracket has Bama as a 10 seed
Posted on 1/4/18 at 8:44 pm to Bamafan15
At least the women's team seems to be getting better every year
Posted on 1/4/18 at 9:18 pm to GenesChin
quote:
If Bama just takes care of games they "should" win, they won't need to "upset" anyone to get there
That includes road wins over teams like LSU, State, Georgia, etc?
LOL not happening.
This post was edited on 1/4/18 at 9:19 pm
Posted on 1/5/18 at 8:46 am to SummerOfGeorge
Minnesota's Reggie Lynch is facing a suspension for being accused of sexual assault. Not great news for our SOS.
Posted on 1/5/18 at 1:12 pm to BigBird09
CBS' Jerry Palm has Alabama as a last 4 in, #10 seed play in game
Other Notable SEC / OOC Opponents
Arizona - #4 Seed
Arkansas - #4 Seed
Auburn - #4 Seed
Kentucky - #5 Seed
TAMU - #5 Seed
Texas- #7 Seed
TN - #7 Seed
UF - #8 Seed
Minnesota - #8 Seed
UGA- #9 Seed
UCF - #9 Seed
Rhode Island - #11 Seed **Looks like Autobid
Lipscomb - #12 Seed ** AutoBid
MSU - First 4 Out
Other Notable SEC / OOC Opponents
Arizona - #4 Seed
Arkansas - #4 Seed
Auburn - #4 Seed
Kentucky - #5 Seed
TAMU - #5 Seed
Texas- #7 Seed
TN - #7 Seed
UF - #8 Seed
Minnesota - #8 Seed
UGA- #9 Seed
UCF - #9 Seed
Rhode Island - #11 Seed **Looks like Autobid
Lipscomb - #12 Seed ** AutoBid
MSU - First 4 Out
Posted on 1/5/18 at 1:26 pm to GenesChin
Welp, that'll be our last mention in a tournament prediction
Posted on 1/5/18 at 1:58 pm to GenesChin
Jerry Palm is one of the worst at predicting where teams land. Lunardi is almost spot on.
Posted on 1/5/18 at 2:22 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
Welp, that'll be our last mention in a tournament prediction
We made it to the first week in January!!!!!
Posted on 1/5/18 at 3:22 pm to Bamafan15
quote:
Jerry Palm is one of the worst at predicting where teams land. Lunardi is almost spot on.
Both Palm and Lunardi aren't that great according to the Bracket Matrix. Bracketology though has a problem in terms of what the goal / "story" the brackets are trying to tell
Is a January bracketology exercise supposed to show where teams stack up right now based on resume/team quality? Or is a January bracketology exercise supposed to try and predict the March bracket? Which means brackets projections have to be right both on team evaluations and future season result projections
The truth is, picking the NCAA bracket at the end of the season isn't particularly hard. Any reasonably knowledgeable CBB fan could pick ~90+% of teams in the field, probably get close on seeding ranks too
This post was edited on 1/5/18 at 3:23 pm
Posted on 1/5/18 at 3:49 pm to GenesChin
quote:
The truth is, picking the NCAA bracket at the end of the season isn't particularly hard. Any reasonably knowledgeable CBB fan could pick ~90+% of teams in the field, probably get close on seeding ranks too
Yea - I find it pretty hilarious when guys tout their "% of the bracket picked correctly".
53% of the bracket is literally set in stone already. Another 30% is basically set in stone by lock at-large teams. So, in the end, you are really only "picking" 10-15% (8-9 teams max) of the tournament. Yet people use % correct out of all 68 to show how awesome their picks were.
Dumbassery
This post was edited on 1/5/18 at 3:50 pm
Posted on 1/5/18 at 4:30 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
So, in the end, you are really only "picking" 10-15% (8-9 teams max) of the tournament.
In a big bubble year, there are some 8 teams competing for the last 5-6 spots. At worst a "bracketologist" misses maybe 2-3 teams
So I think region placement is a joke, but picking the right seeds consistently is fairly impressive. Given how committee takes in non play factors (rematches/conf affiliation, geography + conspiracy ratings matchups), getting seeding right is like playing horse shoes or hand grenades, getting close + some luck = good enough
Posted on 1/5/18 at 4:34 pm to GenesChin
quote:
So I think region placement is a joke, but picking the right seeds consistently is fairly impressive. Given how committee takes in non play factors (rematches/conf affiliation, geography + conspiracy ratings matchups), getting seeding right is like playing horse shoes or hand grenades, getting close + some luck = good enough
Yea - and sometimes it just ends up being trying to predict individual committee members and the group as a whole's opinion.
That's why silly computer predictions for things like "chances to make the CFP playoff" are so dumb. There isn't a mathematical equation to decide how 11 people interpret data and make a decision.
Posted on 1/5/18 at 5:37 pm to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
That's why silly computer predictions for things like "chances to make the CFP playoff" are so dumb. There isn't a mathematical equation to decide how 11 people interpret data and make a decision.
CFP playoff is kind of dumb, because there isn't a history of decision making to calibrate it properly + football doesn't have enough data points with only 12-14 games
Now for college basketball, NCAAT "Prob of making the tournament" is garbage but for different reasons
-> I think an algorithm can be extremely successful predicting the field, there are a ton of data points + known metrics that help
-> As a result, I think "Prob of making tournament with X wins" can be accurate within a certain confidence interval
The problem I have is with combining that with season projection probabilities. The variance by doing that would be through the roof, mostly because the season prediction variance is already so dang high
Posted on 1/5/18 at 5:42 pm to GenesChin
quote:
The problem I have is with combining that with season projection probabilities. The variance by doing that would be through the roof, mostly because the season prediction variance is already so dang high
Agree - just look at the RPI Needs Report or whatever it is called on Warren Nolan on any given Wed/Saturday and look at how a team's RPI can change given 12 opponents games not even including their own. And that is just that one night.
Posted on 1/5/18 at 6:23 pm to SummerOfGeorge
ESPN shows UGA as a 2.5 point favorite
Posted on 1/5/18 at 6:42 pm to GenesChin
quote:
Other Notable SEC / OOC Opponents
Arizona - #4 Seed
Arkansas - #4 Seed
Auburn - #4 Seed
Kentucky - #5 Seed
TAMU - #5 Seed
Texas- #7 Seed
TN - #7 Seed
UF - #8 Seed
Minnesota - #8 Seed
UGA- #9 Seed
UCF - #9 Seed
You put in a lot of work to let us know about Auburn's projected 4-seed
In all honesty though, that surprises me to see y'all that high. No offense, but is Auburn really the 13th-16th best team in the country? The Tennessee win was nice, but it's not nice enough to put them that high IMO. I'd say a 6-7 seed seems more appropriate for now.
This post was edited on 1/5/18 at 6:50 pm
Posted on 1/5/18 at 7:36 pm to BigBird09
I haven't seen Aub play much but did see the 2nd half of the Tenn game. They looked really good over that half.
Posted on 1/5/18 at 7:48 pm to BigBird09
quote:
You put in a lot of work to let us know about Auburn's projected 4-seed
I already had 8 teams from the same Auburn board post I made. Wasn't really meant to be a subtle sail there
quote:
haven't seen Aub play much but did see the 2nd half of the Tenn game. They looked really good over that half
So that was one of the less impressive performances of the past few games. Auburn has exceeded even my homer expectations over that stretch
quote:
No offense, but is Auburn really the 13th-16th best team in the country?
quote:
I'd say a 6-7 seed seems more appropriate for now.
I can honestly say that Auburn is playing like a 4 seed, top 15 type team right now....
But I agree that they probably aren't even your 6-7 slot but a 7-9seed (top 25-35). Auburn has some potential weak points I'm not convinced we can cover up consistently + any injury could be devastating
Right now I left AU for either 22-9 (10-8SEC) maybe 23-8 (11-7SEC) if we get the right bounces in a close game
This post was edited on 1/5/18 at 8:34 pm
Posted on 1/6/18 at 6:41 am to GenesChin
Should I be excited that it's gameday?
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