Taxing Authority
| Favorite team: | LSU  |
| Location: | Houston |
| Biography: | |
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| Number of Posts: | 63560 |
| Registered on: | 2/22/2010 |
| Online Status: | Online |
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re: Trade Data Shows Trump’s Tariffs Are Working
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/10/26 at 12:33 pm to NC_Tigah
quote:Whether the losses are passed to the window man or the worker makes no difference. To illustrate, is the owner enriched of the workers repair the glass instead of hiring a glass man?
In the broken window fallacy, the shop owner's loss of economic production is passed directly to the window man.
Perhaps the markup on material and labor would be lower, but the owner would still
lose the production of the worker while he made the repair.
0
re: Trade Data Shows Trump’s Tariffs Are Working
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/10/26 at 10:49 am to PaperTiger
quote::lol: Thanks for proving it.
So they made the original deal with Trump, and invested the most with Trump, but you don't think it's because of Trumps policies?
re: Trade Data Shows Trump’s Tariffs Are Working
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/10/26 at 10:47 am to PaperTiger
quote:Classic post hoc ergo propter hoc. I won two bike races after Trump's tariffs. It was probably the tariffs. Thanks Trump! :lol:
They may announced at start of Trumps term another $100 billion investment......bc of tariffs.
re: Trade Data Shows Trump’s Tariffs Are Working
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/10/26 at 10:41 am to NC_Tigah
quote:This makes no difference. The employer is poorer for paying higher wages. Otherwise, why wouldn't an employer hire 1,000 peope to dig holes, and another 1,000 workers to fill them up? Wouldn't they be "richer" for creating all the new jobs?
The inherent cost of domestic employment is translated into the cost of goods.
quote:I'm not sure I have to even argue this. GDP as a single variable causality model is... probably not a good idea. Especially given the share of services and other non-manufacturing in our economy. In fact, most growth has occurred in education and healthcare sectors, which are not terribly dependent on imported goods.
If that overall equation is negative, as you seem to presume, then we would have economic contraction. We don't, either in nominal or in real terms. Real GDP was up in the last measured quarter 1.6%
re: Trade Data Shows Trump’s Tariffs Are Working
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/10/26 at 10:35 am to Jjdoc
Construction materials probably isn't hte best measure because lumber has been tariffed for a long time, and its really demand sensitive.
Manufacturing prices seem pretty clear. 20 straight months of increasing prices and 32 months of contracting employment.
What a lot of people miss is that much of US manufacturing is dependent on importing upstream materials and equipment.
Services are simlilar
Manufacturing prices seem pretty clear. 20 straight months of increasing prices and 32 months of contracting employment.
What a lot of people miss is that much of US manufacturing is dependent on importing upstream materials and equipment.
Services are simlilar
re: Trade Data Shows Trump’s Tariffs Are Working
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/10/26 at 10:19 am to SlowFlowPro
quote:Yep.
Isn't this primarily driven by pre-tariff public subsidies from the Biden term?
re: Trade Data Shows Trump’s Tariffs Are Working
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/10/26 at 10:17 am to NC_Tigah
quote:
In simple terms that's the broken window fallacy.
quote:
No.
quote:Indeed. Building the plant and overpaying for labor are not positive uses of capital. They are lost opportunity costs. Not gains. And making it worse it hurts cash flow going forward, because even after paying back the CAPEX asset cost, COGS is higher. Where is the win?
The key is opportunity cost.
re: Trade Data Shows Trump’s Tariffs Are Working
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/10/26 at 10:14 am to PaperTiger
quote:That fab also expanded in 2022 and 2024 before tariffs were even announced.
TSMC is increasing its US footprint. Its spending around $165 billion in Arizone on a facility now.
re: Trade Data Shows Trump’s Tariffs Are Working
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/10/26 at 10:10 am to trinidadtiger
quote:This is like claiming you can go to a car dealer and tell them what price the car will be. I suggest walking into a BMW dealer and telling them their car will cost $25,000.
You adjust your cost, along with the importer to account for those costs, little is passed on to the consumer, Bessent even showed these to us, and concluded the same.
We've had a thread on this already: LINK Two studies with very similar results:
quote:
We highlight two main results. First, 94 percent of the tariff incidence was borne by the U.S. in the first eight months of 2025. This result means that a 10 percent tariff caused only a 0.6 percentage point decline in foreign export prices.
quote:
Table 1 reports our baseline estimates across all trading partners. The coefficient on log tariffs in the unit value regression (column 3) is -0.039, statistically significant at the 10% level. This implies that foreign exporters absorb less than 4% of the tariff burden; the remaining 96% passes through to US importers.
Any lack of price increase we're seeing is almost certainly due to contraction in demand. (NC_Tigah was right about that!)
re: Trade Data Shows Trump’s Tariffs Are Working
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/10/26 at 10:02 am to NC_Tigah
quote:You’ve left out the marginal increase in cost of those paying those additional workers. The idea seems to be “any job created is a good thing”. But that’s not the case. For the employer hiring workers at $20/hr is not a win over a labor cost of $5/say.
In simple terms, the reference is to secondary economic benefits associated with previously nonexistent domestic jobs. If a new manufacturing plant is built in the United States and employs 100 workers, the ancillary effect his job provision of 100 to 300 positions outside of that plant. Then there are the associated revenue effects with the 200 to 400 newly employed taxpayers. None of which existed prior to the new manufacturing plant's existence.
Even at a marginally increased consumer cost, there are very obvious benefits.
The employer loses all that opportunity cost for the more expensive COGS unless they can raise prices by an equal amount of the increased cost. *poof*
re: As America nears its 250th year, 55% of Democrats would rather live in another country
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/8/26 at 9:13 pm to uggabugga
quote:Not if they leave. We don’t have walls keeping people IN. but they are in for a rude awakening if the emigrate. :lol:
As America nears its 250th year, 55% of Democrats would rather live in another country. Profoundly sad.
re: Nothing Can Stop the United States of America
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/8/26 at 10:07 am to AlterEd
Same people that say we have to have tariffs to be competitive.
re: Trump walks out of 'Press the Meat' interview
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/7/26 at 2:34 pm to PorkSammich
quote:Almost as many times as we've won the Iranian war.
How many times have we caught them cheating red handed now?
re: Stephen Miller says eliminating all welfare fraud could balance entire federal budget
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/7/26 at 12:56 pm to Major Dutch Schaefer
Miller is either lying or terrible at math. Cut welfare to $0 and we still run a deficit well north of $1T. (unless we are cpu ting SS/Medi as “welfare”)
re: The U.S. is minting more millionaires than ever
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/6/26 at 11:57 am to HailHailtoMichigan!
quote:It's objectively an indicator of inflation. :lol:
This is objectively a good thing.
re: Iran destroys Terminal 1 at Kuwait International Airport. At least 1 dead with 68 injured
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/3/26 at 7:11 pm to AlterEd
quote:Thats happening because we are not seen as a stable ally anymore.
The "hegemon" in the region moving forward is going to consist of a coalition led by Saudi Arabia.
quote::lol: Let me know when we start withdrawing our military and navy from the region. For now we’re doing the opposite.
The US is disinvesting itself.
re: Iran destroys Terminal 1 at Kuwait International Airport. At least 1 dead with 68 injured
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/3/26 at 7:01 pm to loogaroo
quote:So a few more weeks? How does a war that was supposed to be over in three weeks still need three more weeks months after it started?
A Trump advisor was on Real America's Voice yesterday explaining how the economic damage to Iran is about to start bearing fruit. … Trump is going to wait this out a little longer.
re: Bernie wants Americans to own 50% of the largest AI companies in America
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/2/26 at 9:32 am to stout
Yep. It's that David Lowery....
Loading Twitter/X Embed...
If tweet fails to load, click here. quote:
So by giving the state (not the people-look at the details) a 50% stake in these companies wouldn't this effectively fuse the interests of the state and the AI companies? I mean if you really wanted to redistribute wealth wouldn't you give citizens direct ownership in these companies without the state as intermediary?
But what do I know. Probably nothing bad will happen.
re: Nobel Prize winner and NY Times Columnist Paul Krugman says ...
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/2/26 at 8:53 am to scrooster
Not sure why Krugman hates Trump so much. Krugman (the 2012+ version) and Trump’s share the same view on deficits and monetary stimulus.
re: Bernie wants Americans to own 50% of the largest AI companies in America
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/2/26 at 8:46 am to stout
He wants Trump’s “sovereign wealth fund”. Bernie is MAGA AS f*ck. Give him a coat!
re: "You're fu*king crazy" - Trump says to Netanyahu
Posted by Taxing Authority on 6/1/26 at 9:42 pm to deltaland
quote:Seemingly too good to be true. This "leak" sounds more like a Bernaysian 'narrative injection'.
This pleases me
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