Coeur du Tigre

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Igor Girkin, the former military leader of the Donbas Russian separatists and now a prisoner, writes:

“It is highly likely that Nicolás Maduro will soon relocate to an elite suburb of Moscow, joining Yanukovych and Assad. Russia has no means to assist him other than an emergency evacuation. And we will have to mourn the money we poured into Venezuela.”

“At the front, reserves continue to be spent at a frantic pace in an effort to inflict maximum damage on Ukraine and force it to accept ceasefire terms favorable to Russia. But this will only happen if Western military aid stops completely and Ukraine runs out of manpower — something we should not currently expect.”

“Russia does not possess the forces necessary to deliver a strategic defeat to Ukraine or to occupy the regions of interest to us. Any talk of capturing all of Ukraine or even most of it is no longer relevant.”

“The war of attrition that we are waging is also working against us, which is why Kyiv hopes that it will ultimately prevail.”

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It's two now and they are docked but are they loading?

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First satellite image of the consequences of the strike on the Russian S-400 positions in Novorossiysk.

Judging by the visible damage, the strike occurred in the area marked in yellow.

If the launchers have not changed their positions since the previous satellite image, it can be assumed that at least 3 S-400 launchers were destroyed as a result of the strike (one launcher in the indicated sector, second counting from above, in the satellite image from November 11 is most likely a decoy).

Ukrainian sources claim destruction of four S-400 launchers and two radars - 96N6 and 92N6, it is claimed that in total approximately 12 S-400 "Triumph" launchers were located on the territory of the military unit.

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Pentagon policy chief Elbridge Colby has succeeded in the rarest of feats: uniting a dysfunctional Washington against him.

Some of President Donald Trump’s strongest supporters are accusing him of icing them out of the Pentagon’s most consequential decisions. Foreign allies are privately bemoaning the Defense Department’s third-most senior leader for disregarding their views. And Senate Republicans are publicly admonishing his leadership.

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“You know who the hardest guy to get ahold of in the Trump administration is? The undersecretary of defense for policy,” Sen. Dan Sullivan (R-Alaska) said. “He came to [the Senate Armed Services] committee and said, ‘Hey, I’m going to work with the Congress.’ He hasn’t — on big issues.”

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Colby is the intellectual standard-bearer for a GOP faction that argues Washington must focus its military power on deterring China, even if that means scaling back in Europe and the Middle East. He has spent years warning that over-investing in Ukraine weakens readiness in Asia. His critics — including many traditional defense hawks — argue that this approach risks emboldening Russia and undermining longstanding U.S. commitments abroad.

But that friction led to concerns this summer from parts of the White House and among allies that he was acting largely on his own accord, especially in halting some shipments of air defense missiles to Ukraine.

Fellow Republicans say they’ve been blindsided by a slew of decisions influenced by Colby that they oppose. Prominent lawmakers, such as Senate Armed Services Chair Roger Wicker (R-Miss.), have warned the Pentagon is undercutting national security with moves to remove U.S. troops from Romania, conduct a Pentagon review of a major nuclear-powered submarine pact, pause some Ukraine assistance and slash aid to the Baltic nations.

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THE 'BEFORE' VIEW: This is the S-400 Regiment that faced Ukraine's Neptune Missiles Last Night.

Following confirmed reports of a major Ukrainian strike on Novorossiysk (Nov 13/14), we have the "Before" imagery of the air defense shield for this critical port.

This high-res view from Nov 11 shows the 1537th Red Banner Air Defence Regiment, which was tasked with protecting the area (including the BSF piers and the oil terminal).

The Assets: We can see 7x 5P85S2 TELs (S-400 system) deployed. The Context: This site has a complex history (a huge h/t to @benreuter_IMINT for the detailed analysis and history lesson). This S-400 battalion only recently returned to the site after it was temporarily downgraded to an S-300PM2.

This is our baseline. Reports claim the attack, which used Neptune missiles, struck both the oil terminal and an S-400 launcher. Now we wait for the "After" (BDA) imagery to see what was hit and how effective this S-400 shield truly was.

Source: Maxar powered by @SkyfiApp | @NASAEarthData
Date: 11 November 2025 (Maxar) | 13/14 November (FIRMS)

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North Korea has more than halved its supplies of artillery shells to Russia after exhausting its stockpiles. At the same time, the regime in Pyongyang has launched production of its own attack drones.

Vadym Skibitskyi, Deputy Chief of Ukraine’s Defense Intelligence, said this in an interview with Reuters, Ukrinform reports.

“The shipment of millions of rounds of artillery shells from North Korea helped Russia keep up rates of fire on the battlefield in 2024, but Skibitskyi said the number had more than halved this year as Pyongyang's stocks ran low,” the report notes, citing Skibitskyi.

The intelligence representative added that there were no shell deliveries recorded from North Korea in September, but some were recorded in October. Around half the shells supplied by Pyongyang were so old that they needed to go to plants in Russia to be improved.

At the same time, Skibitskyi pointed out that North Korea had launched mass production of FPV drones, as well as larger medium-range battlefield attack UAVs, on its own territory.

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