Coeur du Tigre

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Ukraine’s Allies Set Ultimatum for Ceasefire, Macron Says US Commits to Monitor Truce

A coalition of the willing that arrived in Kyiv has called for a 30-day unconditional ceasefire after a phone call with Donald Trump. Ukraine agrees. Everyone is awaiting Russia’s response.

by Kyiv Post | May 10, 2025

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Trump has agreed to support the plans of the "coalition of the willing" on Ukraine. [Politico] reports that Macron spoke with Trump by phone: "Trump took the call, even though it wasn’t yet 7 a.m. in Washington, and agreed to support Europe’s demands".

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Next (predictably):

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Putin offers Kyiv direct peace talks — with no preconditions. Says they could start May 15 in Istanbul. He’s set to speak with President Erdogan tomorrow to request support in organizing the talks.

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What preconditions? He refuses the offer by the Coalition by the Willing and asks everyone to go down the rabbit hole of delay, obfuscation and more delay, leading to another KGB-style dead end. He only needs one person to sign on.

Next (also predictably) aaand Trump bites down hard on Putin's counter:



Which, considering that Trump agreed to support the plans of the "coalition of the willing" on Ukraine, leads to some quick crawfishing from Washington. This from Trump spokesperson Gen. Keith Kellogg:

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As President Trump has repeatedly said, stop the killing!! An unconditional 30 day ceasefire first and, during it, move into comprehensive peace discussions. Not the other way around.

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But Donnie's frick-up is going to take more than that to undo. Weiss lays it out:

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This is why what the Europeans did was clever. If Trump now falls for Putin’s bait-and-switch [which he did, of course] it means he is rejecting *his own plan*.

Even if he’s foolish enough to do that [he is...], the optics this time aren’t in his favor. There is no televised Oval Office showdown to blame on Zelensky. Zelensky was fully on board, with Trump’s encouragement.

More NY Post editorials and Fox News hits await: the president is weak and embarrassing and the Russians are eating our lunch. While missiles and drones continue to rain down on Ukraine. (“Vladimir, stop,” indeed.) Opposition will be not just in Kyiv, London and Brussels; it will also be here in the U.S. Furthermore, deals on F-16 spare parts, Patriots, indirect aid via Germany (arty and Pat missiles) [125 HIMARS and 100 Patriots] —undoing all these things means undoing what Trump himself put in motion. Sad!

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But Trump's shot straight through the foot doesn't change a thing for the Europeans. More from Weiss:

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Added to which, Europe’s position is unchanged. No sanctions relief and no halt to security assistance, no matter what Washington says or does. Ukraine isn’t going to negotiate the terms of its surrender in Turkey, especially when the U.S. assesses (Christ, even J.D. fricking Vance assesses) that Russia cannot take more territory by force.

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Now we have Trump in a corner, changing his mind by the hour on support for Ukraine and the 30-day ceasefire. The recently announced HIMARS and Patriot package helps clarify things and are hopefully followed by more, but were Ok'ed to try to stop Merz from sending the Taurus missiles before any on this rained down.

Right now, Trump has sidelined the US and has work to do to regain any influence. The phones are open, but no one is talking to Kellogg. Or Vance or Witkoff. Someone is going to have to explain to Donnie what his options are and why anything other than the 'foot on Putin's throat' option is another mistake. Tik tok.

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New Pope Leo XIV openly calls out Russia as the aggressor in Ukraine. No bullshite neutrality like Pope Francis. He basically straight up says it, Russia invaded, Russia is guilty, and the world must stop pretending otherwise. He even shades certain politicians (likely Trump, Orban, and the rest of the pro-Russia clowns) who stay silent or defend Putin’s war crimes. This is the first Pope in a long time with a spine. A real moral stance. No “both sides” bullshite. Just truth.

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Talking about how many troops each side has... Here's the leader of 1.376 billion followers and he didn't have to pay any of them to join.

Could we have another John Paul XXIII on our hands? His Mama's family is from NOLA's 7th Ward, so we know he's got that Throw Hands DNA. Just keeps it hidden under the vestments until the microphone is turned on.

Video of His speech on the Ukraine topic last month.

Also in attendance was Oliver Stone. Which gives us one American who is a poster boy for what drugs can do to your brain and another that never had to worry about that problem.

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That price per barrel breakeven is likely due internal sales, rather than international sales. Most refineries are inland unlike the US with most near the coast.

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The breakeven for the Russian Federal budget, said to be approximately US$70 /Bbl, is derived from how much tax revenue is generated from sales. All Federal budget revenue is tax. Therefore, although the price / volume adjustments sometimes lag (lower volumes needed at higher pricing and vice versa, especially as of late the vice versa), product source and final revenue source are not as important as with well head breakeven.

What does this mean? In Russia, the Federal budget is separate from the financially significant private budgets of the various oligarch groups. And yes, they're very much competing for the same shrinking revenue sources. The pressure to replace tax revenue lost to the artificial restraints of the sanctions and resulting below-market Chinese pricing leads all players to the same door - the sovereign wealth fund held by the Russian Ministry of the Treasury.

The Kremlin support of these oligarch groups with forced bank loans at far below real interest rates is quickly running out of effectiveness as the bank's reserves are long dried up, forcing them to go to - ready for it? - the Treasury for direct payments from the sovereign wealth fund. I think we're all feeling a bit of vertigo at this point, but you have to admire the perseverance of the employees of Treasury at this time. It has been said that they have all moved their offices to the basement of the building.

Interesting statement on changes coming from the White House in regards relations with the Europeans. TLDR: Trump having his mind changed due to US defense industry losing the hundreds of billions in new EU defense spending. Europeans are not intimidated by the Trump threats and are happy to produce these weapon systems themselves.

When the US defense industry needs strategic planning from Washington, what they get is chaos and monumental tariffs.

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I had ringside seats for US Vice President JDVance ’s speech this morning [May 6] in Washington. Like most people in the room I was prepared to be hit with another lecture, to see the fractures in the transatlantic relationship deepen before my eyes. But we were surprised, positively.

The tone has altered. JD Vance now considers Europe and the US to be important partners. So what exactly changed, and why?

My best bet is that what has happened during recent months could be described as US foreign policy disruption overreach. Fundamentally, the notion that America, in the spirit of Silicon valley disruptors, can offer a new and universally accepted worldview is based on the indispensability of the United States to other nations.

And what just happened was a reckoning that the US is still a tremendously important western ally, but… the worldview that it wants its allies to accept is simply not acceptable to most of them.

JD Vance offered a couple of points that to my mind show the main vulnerabilities of the US.

1—EU procurement of US weapons. The US wants a piece of the trillions of euros that will be spent on defence. And the administration is upset that Europe seems to be choosing to replace American products by making its own kit instead of staying weak and vulnerable by shopping around for subtier alternatives. All the messaging throughout recent months led Europe to doubt that the US is a reliable partner when it comes to dealing with the greatest security threat—Russia. And if Europe doubts that partnership—Europe is not going to spend money on US equipment, at least not in the amounts it planned to when there was less doubt. You cannot have cake and eat it. Either the US is ready to defend Europe against Russia together with Europe (and that includes Ukraine), or Europe slowly, ineffectively but inevitably will start building itself up, and with that will gain autonomy and leverage.

2—EU regulation. JD Vance mentioned that the way Brussels treats US tech companies is unfair. My gut feeling is that this sentiment is at the heart of the attack on Brussels by the US administration. You can laugh, despise or criticise Brussels, but it wields enormous regulatory power in an extremely populous and rich market. And if you want to reach that market, your road leads through Brussels.

And what's even more horrifying from the US administration’s perspective—most Europeans actually appreciate this regulation. Many have a sense it makes their life safer and in that way better. So the attacks on Brussels because of its supposedly undemocratic nature are simply another attack on any limitation of Washington’s power. You can broligarch your way to the highest echelons of US power, but apparently that doesn’t help you change things in Europe.

I admit, this might be wishful thinking—but I get the sense that Trump burning all those burning bridges did not scare or paralyze Europe into submission. And the price that American people are paying for the disruption might also be larger than initially expected.

If all this is true—the lesson is clear. Hold your ground, stay firm, keep the door open, remind everybody of common values and common interests and continue doing the right thing. And who knows, people can come around, so maybe countries can as well.

So I left the room hoping that my gut feeling will turn out to be true. At least, for once, my gut feeling was not gloom.

But still, the first victim of Trump’s disruption was trust. It is a very expensive commodity that was built up through decades of hard work and it will be very tough to regain. Trust will have to be at the core of all the conversations between Brussels and DC—be it about trade, regulation or security.

If there had been a chance to address the Vice President, I would have told him frankly:

Russia is the aggressor.
Ukraine is the victim.
We support the victim.
There are red lines that Europe cannot cross, and will not cross.

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LINK

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In a virtual meeting on Saturday, key producers led by Saudi Arabia and Russia agreed to raise collective output by 411,000 barrels per day (bpd), nearly triple the volume originally scheduled.

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The eight members behind the increase—Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq, the UAE, Kuwait, Kazakhstan, Algeria, and Oman—will reassess in June. But for now, the message is clear: OPEC+ is no longer defending high prices, and oil markets should prepare for more volatility ahead.

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As the international oil benchmarks slumped by about $10 per barrel in just a few days, the price of Russia’s flagship Urals crude grade tumbled and is close to the $50 per barrel threshold for the first time in nearly two years.

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Russia is forced to vote on increasing production in order to offset the increasingly lower prices. Especially lower for Urals crude which is at or very close to the breakeven price.

Going further, let us pause for a moment in memory of the other breakeven price in Russia - the fiscal breakeven oil price, which is the price needed to balance the external current account. This is the balance of payments with international trade and investment. There are many estimates of what this price is, but they all agree it is well north of $70/Bbl at this time.

Increasing production in an unstable Urals market is not yet a death spiral scenario, but it's getting there faster every day.

LINK

On the newly announced support of Ukraine from the US, I haven't seen the media source yet, but here is what is coming out now on Twitter and minor media sites:

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Full: Ukraine, having signed the agreement on minerals, can receive $30 billion in aid from the US this year, — Zelensky

This aid was approved by the previous [Biden] administration for 2025-2026.

"There is $15 billion in 2025 according to the decisions that were (adopted) by Congress a year ago. $15 billion is a package for 2025, and weapons for this amount. There is also $15 billion that they divided on 2026.

The question is whether this money reaches you or not. And this is a lot of money, $30 billion.

The question is whether it is possible in 2026 thanks to the fund that has now been created, whether it is possible to bring the $15 billion in 2026 closer to 2025, for example, to the second half and receive weapons for $30 billion in 2025 and 2026, but to receive it now.

These $30 billion will be the contribution of the American side to the Reconstruction Investment Fund. Ukraine will then give its half (to this Fund) little by little, and this is an agreement."

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Dayum. This was $30 billion allocated by the Biden administration and is now evidently being released... If this happens, we can stick a fork in Putin.

LINK

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[Serbian President] Vucic and [Slovakian Prime Minister] Fico felt "sudden illness" and canceled all important affairs.

Just recently, both swore they would come to Putin to pay their respects on May 9. Coincidence?

The President of Serbia, due to "health issues," even interrupted his visit to the US, not waiting for an audience with Trump. [Which he was not going to get. The only person that agreed to meet him during his US visit was Rudolph Giuliani... So to save face and establish a reason for pulling the plug on the Moscow May 9 visit, he 'got sick'.]

Just a couple of days ago, Vucic once again stated that he wouldn't refuse a visit to Moscow, as he promised President Putin.

Slovak Prime Minister Fico also "fell ill" and did not participate in the May Day celebrations in Slovakia. He also couldn’t, as he intended, show solidarity with workers by doing a night shift as a worker at a bakery in the city of Nitra — worker of the year!

Well, let’s wish them a speedy recovery so they can get back in shape by May 9. Though, there’s a suspicion they won’t manage to do so.

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LINK

The new Moscow Virus is being studied by health organizations worldwide. Diagnostic indicators are a large yellow streak down the back, spastic over-tightened sphincters and recent exposure to communications from Washington DC and Brussels.

Is China immune...?



:popcorn:

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No, A major problem for Trump was that Europe provided loans, the US provided gifts.
See the difference?

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This is described as a sale. No one will ever accuse Trump of giving anything for free.

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Per my friend formerly with Gazprom breakeven in Russia is $50 not $60

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Original Link.

This is an interesting point which I looked into recently. There are many different opinions on what the Russian breakeven price is or even if it is important in present context of the Russian war effort. In other words, how much pain can the Kremlin take from losses in the crude oil market? It could be more than we think, based on our pre-war thinking. The comments in the linked thread highlight some of these opinions.

The pre-war lift cost seems to be an agreed US$20 to US$27 / Bbl, but for older wells can be higher. The added costs following this are where the arguments start. In other words, is the Kremlin now interested in field and well maintenance, taxes not paid to the Kremlin/oligarchs, profitability of post-pumping logistics? Most of these costs are casualties of the war, being eaten by service providers or simply ignored. War is hell, especially when you're losing.

Also, a lot of pre-war thinking is still evident - Urals crude pricing being tied to pricing of Brent, losses by Russian oil producers being backstopped by the sovereign wealth fund, taxes being paid by Russian oil producers... We can safely delete these effects from the discussion now.

More pertinent are facts about the disconnect of Urals pricing from the overall market and long term damage to the Russian oil industry. Firstly, the price for Urals is not effected by global prices in the same manner as pre-war. The few buyers of Urals command a very strong position, completely independent of competing markets. In other words, the Russians are fricked, they have to take whatever is offered because they can't say no.

There's also discussion about well closure to sanding processes and permafrost. These costs are not effecting present pricing but will certainly kill attendance at investor's roadshows. The Kremlin can't look for outside support unless they give up the field. An operating field, and that does wonders to your production.

It's an interesting discussion mostly based on pre-war vs. current pricing constraints. Seeing as the war has changed everything, the actual breakeven price may remain a mystery for the future. But we can be sure of one thing - no one in the Russian oil production side is making money now. Any rare, accidental profit is quickly eaten by war production. No one in Russia is in a position to say no these days.