nc_tiger
| Favorite team: | LSU  |
| Location: | |
| Biography: | |
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| Number of Posts: | 153 |
| Registered on: | 8/24/2017 |
| Online Status: | Not Online |
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re: Final Poll (Democracy Institute/Sunday Express) in NH: TRUMP +4%!!!
Posted by nc_tiger on 11/1/20 at 12:35 pm
poll good for biden
this board: all poles are wrong
poll good for trump
this board: great news!
:rotflmao:...
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re: Let's face it - if Biden really had this in the bag
Posted by nc_tiger on 11/1/20 at 12:32 pm
Tuesday can't get here fast enough....
re: On Tuesday, I want this guy to lose the most
Posted by nc_tiger on 11/1/20 at 11:53 am
He's already said the forecast is basically frozen at this point....
Biden camp announces trip to Ohio Monday
Posted by nc_tiger on 11/1/20 at 11:48 am
what does this mean...
re: How do you think the conversation between Tucker and his editor went?
Posted by nc_tiger on 10/29/20 at 12:53 am
[quote]Editor: Okay, sure. Let's run with that. [/quote]
because a bunch of sheep will eat it up no matter what and ratings are all that count to a TV show....
re: Sensing a little bit of unease from Nate Silver today
Posted by nc_tiger on 10/27/20 at 1:42 pm
there's 1 clear example of bad input to a 538 model: the 2016 presidential election. they've proven to do a good job predicting results over the last decade.
538 has never tried to be "wrong" or "right", just apply probabilities. They also never give 0 because it's impossible to give zero, the ma...
re: Sensing a little bit of unease from Nate Silver today
Posted by nc_tiger on 10/27/20 at 12:06 pm
in 2016 538 had 4 or 5 states at > 50% hillary that she lost. I think it was 4 or 5 I can't remember exactly and I'm too lazy to look. Therefore I'd say the model performed poorly in comparison to how it performed in 2012. Not a 50/50 metric. I'm basing my opinion of 538, which I would level at "rep...
re: Sensing a little bit of unease from Nate Silver today
Posted by nc_tiger on 10/27/20 at 11:59 am
[quote]The issue being those "priors and available polls" are flawed to begin with. [/quote]
of course. the pollsters (and downstream models like 538) claim to have made adjustments after learning things post-2016 election. we'll see on nov 3...
re: Sensing a little bit of unease from Nate Silver today
Posted by nc_tiger on 10/27/20 at 11:50 am
[quote]How do you "ace" an election if all you give are percentages? [/quote]
easy: the states with higher percent chance of going Obama... actually went Obama. the model aced the winner-by-state predictions, that doesn't mean it was quantitatively perfect in the odds it gave each race.
[quote...
re: Sensing a little bit of unease from Nate Silver today
Posted by nc_tiger on 10/27/20 at 11:42 am
[quote]He had Trump down in the teens, if not lower, before Election Day.[/quote]
and at another point before Election Day he had the odds near 50/50...
re: Sensing a little bit of unease from Nate Silver today
Posted by nc_tiger on 10/27/20 at 11:35 am
[quote]And there's no way to know if his statistical model is worth a crap or not, which is why I don't understand all the fawning.
[/quote]
the model literally aced the 2012 election. then in 2016 gave trump a higher chance of winning that anyone else out there (71 hillary to 29 trump). so righ...
re: Sensing a little bit of unease from Nate Silver today
Posted by nc_tiger on 10/27/20 at 11:23 am
to build a statistical model that's based on a set of priors and available polls to predict the [i]probability[/I] of election outcomes, not the outcome it self....
re: Sensing a little bit of unease from Nate Silver today
Posted by nc_tiger on 10/27/20 at 11:18 am
this place doesn't understand how the field of statistics works....
re: Sensing a little bit of unease from Nate Silver today
Posted by nc_tiger on 10/27/20 at 11:16 am
538/Nate Silver is not a pollster. the pollsters are the ones that required the most correcting, though 538 has said they've made adjustments to how the model reads the polls (bc of how off the polls were in 16)...
re: where do you get your print news
Posted by nc_tiger on 10/26/20 at 5:57 pm
not necessarily on a piece of paper. I mean non tv/radio i.e. web counts...
re: where do you get your print news
Posted by nc_tiger on 10/26/20 at 5:55 pm
print can still be web, just not tv/radio...
re: where do you get your print news
Posted by nc_tiger on 10/26/20 at 5:52 pm
thats kinda the point. where do people go for non radio/tv...
where do you get your print news
Posted by nc_tiger on 10/26/20 at 5:51 pm
curious to see where the poli board reads the news
eta: by print news I mean anything that is not tv/radio...
re: Democratic panic?
Posted by nc_tiger on 10/25/20 at 10:55 am
Biden going to Atlanta on Tuesday, that’s not panic that’s aggressive ...
re: Barret-Jackson auction on right now
Posted by nc_tiger on 10/24/20 at 2:22 pm
People don’t want to get sick, more at 11...
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