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re: Would Sherman's offense work with our personnel

Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:51 pm to
Posted by SafetySam
Gettysburg, PA
Member since Oct 2013
7435 posts
Posted on 10/26/15 at 9:51 pm to
Understood. But it's not game-specific, and it's not situation-specific.
Posted by NanosTacoRun
Member since Jun 2015
3332 posts
Posted on 10/26/15 at 10:01 pm to
quote:

So I'm getting 5.08 yards/rush, and if you remember, we lost CMike maybe 6 or 7 games into the year, and then Cyrus after game... 10? So we were probably closer to 5.2 when CMike and Cyrus were running. 

Let's not gloss over the difference between 5.2 yards/rush and 4.2 and 4.1 yards/rush. That is a cavernous gulf, especially as that stat represents our performance against good teams too. This year, we've basically rushed for close to 6ypa against crap teams and 3 or less against good teams. Just a sample of the first few: 

A couple things

1. Cyrus played 11 games and Cmike played, so not quite as bad as you thought

2. If you take out sacks, the edge drops to 5.3 vs 5.1

3. Kyler does skew the stats a little bit, but Tannehill did have over 300 yds rushing in 2011.

4. I'm gonna cut the 2015 team some slack, as the RB position has been absolutely decimated for various reasons. Sumlin/Spav sorta reaped what they sowed with Trey bailing on them, but the White/Bussey/Bradford injuries have been brutal. And moving BWill to CB was a genius move, but it has definitely hurt the run game.
Posted by NanosTacoRun
Member since Jun 2015
3332 posts
Posted on 10/26/15 at 10:02 pm to
quote:

Understood. But it's not game-specific, and it's not situation-specific.

I'm not sure I follow
Posted by SafetySam
Gettysburg, PA
Member since Oct 2013
7435 posts
Posted on 10/26/15 at 10:14 pm to
It's the issue of your sample size and nature of your opponent. I agree that some per play or per game stats are meaningful. But it's who you do it against and when you do it that matters. Overall, KA's stats don't look that bad. Overall, Spav's stats don't look that bad.
Posted by NanosTacoRun
Member since Jun 2015
3332 posts
Posted on 10/26/15 at 10:27 pm to
quote:

Overall, KA's stats don't look that bad.

Kyle's only 47th in the nation in YPA. And that number is dropping like a rock.

9.7 ypa in September
5.9 ypa in October
Posted by SafetySam
Gettysburg, PA
Member since Oct 2013
7435 posts
Posted on 10/26/15 at 10:36 pm to
But he could throw for 600 on Saturday. On average, everything looks great. One foot in ice water, one foot in boiling water: on average, everything is just right.
Posted by NanosTacoRun
Member since Jun 2015
3332 posts
Posted on 10/26/15 at 10:48 pm to
It's like that for everybody. So I don't take it as that big a deal.

For a single game, it means almost nothing without a lot of context. Over a month, over a full season it tells you a whole lot. Probably more than any other single stat (besides scoring, which really isn't a good individual stat).

But in the end, it's about scoring TDs and preventing TDs. Sherman didn't do enough of either, and if Sumlin doesn't figure it out soon, he'll be looking for another job.
This post was edited on 10/26/15 at 10:50 pm
Posted by SafetySam
Gettysburg, PA
Member since Oct 2013
7435 posts
Posted on 10/26/15 at 11:00 pm to
quote:

It's like that for everybody

Except for really good teams and really good players, who can do it when it matters. And really good teams and really good players have stats that look really similar to lessor teams and lessor players. It's not the stats that make the difference.
Posted by NanosTacoRun
Member since Jun 2015
3332 posts
Posted on 10/26/15 at 11:13 pm to
I'm not really sure what you're getting at. Are you saying stats don't matter? Or you think there are better stats than yards-per-play?
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