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re: What is your Realistic Timeline for a Coaching Change?
Posted on 11/22/16 at 10:10 am to Howdyagssec
Posted on 11/22/16 at 10:10 am to Howdyagssec
quote:
We haven't had that level of leadership until TK. Idk how you cultivate that as a CEO or I'd be rich AF. But I feel like that's something that Sumlin and staff don't do enough of or we wouldn't lose games we're supposed to win.
I think the Sumlin's inability to generate stability and leadership within the program has been a significant hindrance to the program taking the next step
Posted on 11/22/16 at 10:12 am to CGSC Lobotomy
quote:
To his credit, his staff did move Damontre Moore to rush end (he was playing outside linebacker under DeRuyter)
We switched from a 3-4 to a 4-3, so this wasn't exactly a genius move.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:25 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:
We should at least be in that second spot behind Bama once or twice with a Sugar Bowl appearance to show for it by this point.
But if we win Thursday, we will have finished 2nd in the West (which makes twice) with 9 wins and probably go to the Sugar Bowl. And yet there are 30 melt threads on this board. But based on your definition, we're right on the cusp
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:31 pm to Nguyening
quote:
Not to mention we're one of like 5 teams to have over 50% blue-chips on the roster the last few years. That's about as objective as it gets.
Just curious but are the other 4 in our division? I'd be surprised if Bama, LSU, Auburn aren't at the least and probably OM. Really all your questions fall in the same category. Top 5 facilities, coaching staff.
Isn't that objective reality? Comparing to SJSU or Troy is kinda misleading. I think stuff like that show we've invested in the program. We should have expectations. But context matters.
I'm not saying we're meeting expectations or even what they should be, simply stats like this are misleading. We aren't playing Kansas anymore.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 12:58 pm to tmc94
quote:
But if we win Thursday, we will have finished 2nd in the West (which makes twice) with 9 wins and probably go to the Sugar Bowl. And yet there are 30 melt threads on this board. But based on your definition, we're right on the cusp
And if we don't, we will be 4th again and not have reached that point in 5 years but will still keep him. At what point is 8-4 not good enough?
This post was edited on 11/22/16 at 12:59 pm
Posted on 11/22/16 at 1:06 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:
At what point is 8-4 not good enough?
Here's a sample 3-year period.
Year 1 - 8 regular season wins
Year 2 - 7 regular season wins
Year 3 - 8 regular season wins
Here's another sample 3-year period.
Year 1 - 7 regular season wins
Year 2 - 8 regular season wins
Year 3 - 8 regular season wins
See if you can guess which coach gets fired in the fourth year in this scenario.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 1:17 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
maybe so. But based on your own words, we would meet the top end of your expectations with a win in 2 days. We'll be at the low end if we lose.
I don't know. It's a good question and one that everyone should be grappling with if we lose.
But the constant emotionally charged, agenda driven narratives make rational discussion about it difficult. I mean, just in this thread, I've taken no position and only redirected discussion, yet it's going nowhere.
Either way, I see no reason to melt down about it before it happens.
quote:
At what point is 8-4 not good enough?
I don't know. It's a good question and one that everyone should be grappling with if we lose.
But the constant emotionally charged, agenda driven narratives make rational discussion about it difficult. I mean, just in this thread, I've taken no position and only redirected discussion, yet it's going nowhere.
Either way, I see no reason to melt down about it before it happens.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 1:23 pm to tmc94
quote:
Either way, I see no reason to melt down about it before it happens.
Well put. I get the battered Aggy syndrome. I get the reaction after the losses. But some of you guys need to chill the frick out. Its getting old. Tiger Rant has more level headed fans that some of you have been this month.
This post was edited on 11/22/16 at 1:25 pm
Posted on 11/22/16 at 1:25 pm to tmc94
quote:
Either way, I see no reason to melt down about it before it happens.
There's a couple of commonalities between R.C. Slocum in 2002 and Kevin Sumlin in 2017.
Both were being consistently beaten by a school inferior in every way, both academically and athletically (Texas Tech for Slocum, Ole Miss for Sumlin)
Both had weak athletic directors fired the season prior
Both had middling results the previous three seasons after a breakout year
Posted on 11/22/16 at 1:28 pm to tmc94
I'm not saying there's a right answer. The 15 and 16 seasons are really what is concerning to me and I think most rational fans who are upset. Sumlin deserves as much of the blame for going 8-4 in 13 as he does credit for going 10-2 in 12. His staff benefitted greatly from having the OL/Evans/Manziel on campus and he certainly played a part in their success, but was also hurt in 13 by the defensive talent he inherited (and you could say was somewhat responsible for the defensive staff in place in 13 and the development of players)
We are going to have years like 2014 where we are turning over talent and I accept that.
These past two years to me should have been the years where we were making a run at that Sugar Bowl bid and finishing in the top 15 overall and winning 9-10 games in the regular season, capitalizing on the talent that should be on campus from his first two full classes. If we happen to win Thursday, I will shut up about Sumlin for the offseason because it definitely won't matter, but 8-4 (unranked) and 9-3 would still be fairly disappointing to me knowing next year is another 'step back' type of season.
We are going to have years like 2014 where we are turning over talent and I accept that.
These past two years to me should have been the years where we were making a run at that Sugar Bowl bid and finishing in the top 15 overall and winning 9-10 games in the regular season, capitalizing on the talent that should be on campus from his first two full classes. If we happen to win Thursday, I will shut up about Sumlin for the offseason because it definitely won't matter, but 8-4 (unranked) and 9-3 would still be fairly disappointing to me knowing next year is another 'step back' type of season.
This post was edited on 11/22/16 at 1:33 pm
Posted on 11/22/16 at 1:45 pm to AggieDub14
quote:
Tiger Rant has more level headed fans that some of you have been this month.
Not really. They stuff they post and their expectations and level of self-realization are all insane.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 1:52 pm to Cooter Davenport
Self-realization is exactly what I'm talking about
Posted on 11/22/16 at 1:52 pm to tmc94
quote:
Just curious but are the other 4 in our division? I'd be surprised if Bama, LSU, Auburn aren't at the least and probably OM. Really all your questions fall in the same category. Top 5 facilities, coaching staff.
Isn't that objective reality? Comparing to SJSU or Troy is kinda misleading. I think stuff like that show we've invested in the program. We should have expectations. But context matters.
I'm not saying we're meeting expectations or even what they should be, simply stats like this are misleading. We aren't playing Kansas anymore.
2015 blue chip
2016 blue chip
We were 10th and 10th. I was incorrect on top 5 talent.
Bama and LSU are significantly above us, auburn is essentially even with us, Ole Miss isn't on our level and theirs is very freshman heavy vs ours which are mostly Jr's.
I get JFF/12 not being repeatable, but 8-5 with top 10 national talent doesn't cut it. It's not just about 8-5 though. It's about the how and why, and the future projections as well.
Recruiting has dipped and it's hard to see how we win 8 games with 15-20ish talent when we barely did with top 10. We are about where we were supposed to be in year 5 in the SEC transition. The issue isn't where we're at, it's where we came from and where we're headed.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 1:55 pm to Nguyening
Can't say I disagree with anything you just said.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 2:10 pm to tmc94
quote:
We aren't playing Kansas anymore.
Maybe not, but we have lucked out as far as what SEC East teams we have had to play.
This year we had Tenn finally, and in 2012 we had Florida. But the other games?
-South Carolina (right as their program declined) three times
-Vandy twice (they always suck)
-Mizzou twice (admittedly back when they were better)
We have missed UF with a better coach, UGA at all, and UK this year when they are decent.
Lets compare that to LSU since 2012. They have played:
-UF fives times including with a better coach
-USC twice (and once it was the better 2012 version)
-Mizzou just once
-UGA with a better coach
Someone in the SEC front office loved us the past couple of seasons and it inflated our win total.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 2:17 pm to ShaneTheLegLechler
quote:
His staff benefitted greatly from having the OL/Evans/Manziel on campus and he certainly played a part in their success, but was also hurt in 13 by the defensive talent he inherited (and you could say was somewhat responsible for the defensive staff in place in 13 and the development of players)
This is the mixed bag that is hard to contextualize. My biggest complaint around '13 was that they didn't go JUCO heavy on defense.
But I also recognize that even the staff had no idea the talent they had and they knew they needed a massive overhaul of the program. Taking a long term approach, especially given most of the '13 class committed before the '12 season, probably was warranted. But the evals in that class were poor, mostly on a coachability and character side. That's part of the learning curve.
They appear to have taken steps there. But it's frustrating they didn't capitalize more on that '12 season. But you don't get do overs. This is where we are.
quote:
If we happen to win Thursday, I will shut up about Sumlin for the offseason
I'm not asking that btw. I'm simply trying to steer the conversation into proper context
quote:
knowing next year is another 'step back' type of season
The staff is actually feeling pretty good about next year. I sensed a lot of trepidation for this year because of some glaring issues. Next year the depth of our roster should hold up better. They have a couple of holes to fill still but it appears they have a good line on them.
They are particularly excited about the '16 class btw.
Posted on 11/22/16 at 2:23 pm to Nguyening
quote:
Bama and LSU are significantly above us, auburn is essentially even with us,
so we're 3rd/4th in our division, no?
Posted on 11/22/16 at 2:24 pm to tmc94
I'm still very concerned about our front 7 next year and our ability to stop the run, which has been the issue for some time. I don't see how we can break through in this conference until we change that, no matter what staff is in place.
I do think if we land Stidham our offense could be very good, but I don't know how far that can take us and you have to expect other schools in our division to improve from where they are.
I do think if we land Stidham our offense could be very good, but I don't know how far that can take us and you have to expect other schools in our division to improve from where they are.
This post was edited on 11/22/16 at 2:25 pm
Posted on 11/22/16 at 2:31 pm to cardboardboxer
quote:
-South Carolina (right as their program declined) three times
-Vandy twice (they always suck)
-Mizzou twice (admittedly back when they were better)
we played Mizzou 3 times. Two of those they were the SECE champ that season
We played Vandy twice. One of those years they finished the season ranked
South Carolina has been bad, no doubt. We got lucky there.
UF and UT were both at the top of the division the year we played them. Seems like a pretty neutral overall. Don't see where we lucked out. Agreed that LSU has had it tough
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