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Posted on 5/17/16 at 9:32 pm to finestfirst79
Well, that was terrible. In a way worse than Sunday, because there weren't an inordinate amount of walks to blame it on - and no errors.
Posted on 5/17/16 at 9:34 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
Conspiracy theory - RC is throwing this one for Deggs. Sam's RPI is 63 right now. This should put them in the mid 50s (guess). If they take care of business vs HBU they should be able to sneak in as a at large possibly.
i just had this exact same thought. on a bright note, martin didnt walk anybody.
Posted on 5/17/16 at 10:01 pm to Uncle Gunnysack
Banks, Martin, and the defense were the only bright spots.
Posted on 5/17/16 at 10:07 pm to Farmer1906
Our RPI didn't change from 4th overall. 
Posted on 5/17/16 at 10:18 pm to Farmer1906
Agreed. And I think a bunch of guys here are ignoring reality. Look at the top 6 teams in the SEC:
Florida 18-8 43-9
Texas A&M 18-9 39-12
Mississippi State 18-9 37-14
South Carolina 17-9 39-13
Ole Miss 17-10 39-14
LSU 17-10 37-16
UF w/ their gaudy 43-9 record is the only lock for a national seed. A&M is ONE game above the #6 team and are playing the #5 team (1 game behind) this weekend. And people smarter than me think the SEC won't get 4 national seeds. Everybody is acting like we're a lock for a national seed. We really, really need for the Aggies to sweep Ole Miss. We can't even pull for LSU to beat UF because LSU is right there. It's not about what A&M has done. It's about what 5 other teams have done.
Florida 18-8 43-9
Texas A&M 18-9 39-12
Mississippi State 18-9 37-14
South Carolina 17-9 39-13
Ole Miss 17-10 39-14
LSU 17-10 37-16
UF w/ their gaudy 43-9 record is the only lock for a national seed. A&M is ONE game above the #6 team and are playing the #5 team (1 game behind) this weekend. And people smarter than me think the SEC won't get 4 national seeds. Everybody is acting like we're a lock for a national seed. We really, really need for the Aggies to sweep Ole Miss. We can't even pull for LSU to beat UF because LSU is right there. It's not about what A&M has done. It's about what 5 other teams have done.
Posted on 5/17/16 at 11:03 pm to finestfirst79
on a hilarious note, texas has lost 7 of their last 8 to ensure they finish with a losing record for only the 2nd time since 1956.
Posted on 5/17/16 at 11:09 pm to finestfirst79
quote:
A&M is ONE game above the #6 team and are playing the #5 team (1 game behind) this weekend. And people smarter than me think the SEC won't get 4 national seeds. Everybody is acting like we're a lock for a national seed. We really, really need for the Aggies to sweep Ole Miss. We can't even pull for LSU to beat UF because LSU is right there. It's not about what A&M has done. It's about what 5 other teams have done.
i think your BAS is getting the best of you. the one thing you didnt point out (and the committee isnt going to overlook) is that we have the H2H victory over every SEC team we are competing with for that top 8 seed, minus florida.
I believe A&M and state are the only two teams in the country that have only lost 1 series. Thats a loud statement in itself.
Posted on 5/17/16 at 11:17 pm to Uncle Gunnysack
We don't have a H2H win over OM.
Posted on 5/17/16 at 11:32 pm to Uncle Gunnysack
Nah, no BAS here. I'm just being realistic. A&M must win the Ole Miss series, and I'm not sure why anybody would think that's a sure thing. Ole Miss is playing as well as anybody the last several weeks (though they, like A&M, lost to an inferior opponent tonight). If A&M doesn't win the series, then the whole "only two teams in the country that have only lost 1 series" thing goes out the window. Plus they'll end up tied with Ole Miss, who will have won the series.
And I say they need to sweep because MSU is right there and likely will sweep Arkansas, putting them in 1st in the SECW if A&M doesn't also sweep. Even though A&M swept MSU at MSU, their road record is better than anybody's. So that's UF and MSU in. If we think the SEC gets 4 national seeds, well OK. A&M is probably in with a single win. But if only 3 and Aggies end up 1-2 or worse against Ole Miss... bleah.
If A&M doesn't sweep and LSU does with UF @LSU (not unreasonable) then I think we're screwed. Hence, A&M needs a sweep.
And I say they need to sweep because MSU is right there and likely will sweep Arkansas, putting them in 1st in the SECW if A&M doesn't also sweep. Even though A&M swept MSU at MSU, their road record is better than anybody's. So that's UF and MSU in. If we think the SEC gets 4 national seeds, well OK. A&M is probably in with a single win. But if only 3 and Aggies end up 1-2 or worse against Ole Miss... bleah.
If A&M doesn't sweep and LSU does with UF @LSU (not unreasonable) then I think we're screwed. Hence, A&M needs a sweep.
Posted on 5/17/16 at 11:36 pm to finestfirst79
We do not need to sweep.
Thinking LSU sweeps UF is unreasonable no matter where it is played.
2-1 and we are a lock for a top 4 national seed.
1-2 and I think we're playing with fire.
0-3 and we're going to need some serious help.
Thinking LSU sweeps UF is unreasonable no matter where it is played.
2-1 and we are a lock for a top 4 national seed.
1-2 and I think we're playing with fire.
0-3 and we're going to need some serious help.
Posted on 5/17/16 at 11:58 pm to Farmer1906
i realize we havent beaten OM and I want to emphasize that they are the only team that can reasonably pass us (edit: in the nat seed hosting conversation, not SEC standings).
finest you dont seem to put much stock in the head to head category. The committee apparently did in 2011 when texas got a national seed over us despite us being co champions and also winning the B12 tourney.
If we agree that the SEC gets at least 3 nat seeds, i just dont see who else is in front besides Uf and possibly OM, and that still depends on a strong finish from ole miss in the SECT as we have a healthy lead in the RPI.
finest you dont seem to put much stock in the head to head category. The committee apparently did in 2011 when texas got a national seed over us despite us being co champions and also winning the B12 tourney.
If we agree that the SEC gets at least 3 nat seeds, i just dont see who else is in front besides Uf and possibly OM, and that still depends on a strong finish from ole miss in the SECT as we have a healthy lead in the RPI.
This post was edited on 5/18/16 at 12:00 am
Posted on 5/18/16 at 6:11 am to Uncle Gunnysack
I think everyone's nervous after getting screwed last year
Posted on 5/18/16 at 10:27 am to Old Sarge
Posted on 5/18/16 at 10:54 am to Old Sarge
quote:
I think everyone's nervous after getting screwed last year
Add drunk and mad for me, which didn't help.
Last year A&M was 43-10 before the SECT. At 39-12, we can't get there. So yeah, still nervous.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 11:13 am to finestfirst79
Even if the record isn't as good, we have a much better resume.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 11:46 am to Farmer1906
D1 & BA both ranked us the #3 national seed. 
Looking at potential opponents who are in BA or D1's projections:
Within 150 Mi
Rice (2)
DBU (2)
Sam (4)
150 - 300 Mi
TCU (2)
ULala (2)
La Tech (3)
NW St (4) (next four in)
Looking at potential opponents who are in BA or D1's projections:
Within 150 Mi
Rice (2)
DBU (2)
Sam (4)
150 - 300 Mi
TCU (2)
ULala (2)
La Tech (3)
NW St (4) (next four in)
Posted on 5/18/16 at 12:41 pm to Farmer1906
Was going to ask about Lamar and then looked at their schedule. They've lost 7 of 8. Ick.
Posted on 5/18/16 at 12:42 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
Our RPI didn't change from 4th overall
There is a monster gap between 4 and 5. I'm not sure it can be overcome given we don't play any bad teams. The difference even after the loss is 143 bps. The difference between 5th and 13th is only 116 bps.
ETA: there's also a pretty big gap between 3 and 4 so in all likelihood we're going to finish at 4
This post was edited on 5/18/16 at 12:44 pm
Posted on 5/18/16 at 12:52 pm to Farmer1906
quote:
Even if the record isn't as good, we have a much better resume
yessir
SEC Series Record
16: 8 - 1
15: 6 - 3 - 1
SEC Series wins vs teams with .500+ Record in SEC play
16: 5 - 1
15: 1 - 2 - 1 (win was vs Mizzou who finished 15-15)
Last 5 series
16: 4 - 0
15: 1 - 3 - 1 (think this was a huge negative for us)
We've had a much tougher schedule this year getting the top half of the East. We have series wins over 4 teams currently in the top 10 of RPI, two of them on the road. Last year the only series win we had all season vs a team that made the tournament was vs Auburn who finished 13-17 in SEC play and was a last few in type of squad.
You can never predict exactly what the committee will focus on so there is always some element of chance but this isn't last year
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