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re: 2015 Recruiting Discussion
Posted on 1/24/15 at 11:20 am to Old Sarge
Posted on 1/24/15 at 11:20 am to Old Sarge
Where are these five stars coming from Sarge? Texas? We just ran through the list in Texas. Louisiana? We haven't beaten the main team there in years. Where else? We already pick Arizona clean, and other states we dominate like Arkansas have crap talent. Where are the five stars coming from?
I am not even saying we lose everyone, I still think we get Mack. But if we strike out on these top targets on NSD and have to backfill with three stars that might be the start of the end of Sumlin and not the start of some Chavis dominance period like some expect.
In recruiting it is all pies. If Charlie eats our pie, we have to eat someone else's pie to get some pie. Whose pie are we eating? We already ate OUs pie for the most part and it is still not enough for the SEC.
I still have faith Sumlin will get some big commits off our radar on NSD. But that doesn't happen and I am not willing to believe in magic.
I am not even saying we lose everyone, I still think we get Mack. But if we strike out on these top targets on NSD and have to backfill with three stars that might be the start of the end of Sumlin and not the start of some Chavis dominance period like some expect.
In recruiting it is all pies. If Charlie eats our pie, we have to eat someone else's pie to get some pie. Whose pie are we eating? We already ate OUs pie for the most part and it is still not enough for the SEC.
I still have faith Sumlin will get some big commits off our radar on NSD. But that doesn't happen and I am not willing to believe in magic.
This post was edited on 1/24/15 at 11:38 am
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Posted on 1/24/15 at 11:43 am to cardboardboxer
I'm not speaking of just this class. We will still have a nice class and we have some talent already. I'm saying next year we WILL recover the depth.
I want these guys, but I don't want tu to get them more.
But they will still stink, we will still be in the SEC and we will still have Chavis regardless
Strong took over with the most 4&5 star seniors and juniors in all of the big 12 and could NOT coach them up, he failed and many have jumped ship. This will continue.
Maybe I have more faith than you that. Chavis can coach guys that don't have 5* ranks given to them by a fat slob in Austin
We will recover
I want these guys, but I don't want tu to get them more.
But they will still stink, we will still be in the SEC and we will still have Chavis regardless
Strong took over with the most 4&5 star seniors and juniors in all of the big 12 and could NOT coach them up, he failed and many have jumped ship. This will continue.
Maybe I have more faith than you that. Chavis can coach guys that don't have 5* ranks given to them by a fat slob in Austin
We will recover
Posted on 1/24/15 at 11:48 am to Old Sarge
I love Chavis, but coaching elite players to be elite is kind of his thing. We should have looked somewhere else if we didn't plan on landing elite defensive players. I thought we would with ease.
Posted on 1/24/15 at 11:55 am to SwaggerCopter
What makes you sure Chavis and Sumlin cannot line up elite talent to sign next year? And Chavis will have some good talent to work with.
And why are you convinced that Chavis cannot coach kids that aren't already elite?
His worst years with his worst kids are an improvement over out best years of late
And why are you convinced that Chavis cannot coach kids that aren't already elite?
His worst years with his worst kids are an improvement over out best years of late
This post was edited on 1/24/15 at 11:57 am
Posted on 1/24/15 at 12:01 pm to Old Sarge
quote:
I'm not speaking of just this class. We will still have a nice class and we have some talent already. I'm saying next year we WILL recover the depth.
When? How?
The only way I see to do it is to win and win now, which will be hard to do with mediocre defensive talent in the SEC.
This whole season I never really melting during a game. 0-59 didn't hurt that bad. Why? Because in the Game of Thrones sense we were looking at a 2015 class that would be elite and would keep our foot on the throat of tu. If neither of those happens than big picture is Sumlin is screwed. We need talent to win the into SEC.
As long as the Big 12 GOR exists we can recover, but I hate wasting time on that clock if all Chavis to A&M did was give a Sumlin we might need to fire after 2015 a guaranteed 2016 year to also fail because we will believe some lie Chavis can coach up the warm bodies we will sign if we dont sign the top guys.
This NSD might be the most important day of Sumlin's A&M career so far. I still have faith until proven otherwise, but if he bombs it all we did was give Chavis a nice retirement contract.
Posted on 1/24/15 at 12:04 pm to Old Sarge
He had some tough years when Tennessee started having recruiting problems. I'm excited about the hire, and we will show immediate improvement, but I'm shocked we are having any recruiting problems.
This post was edited on 1/24/15 at 12:04 pm
Posted on 1/24/15 at 12:08 pm to cardboardboxer
quote:
but if he bombs it all we did was give Chavis a nice retirement contract.
Isn't this way premature? Define bombing? Top 15 class? Top 20 class?
IF Kyler bails and takes 2-3 POTENTIALLY ELITE defensive players with him, that is all that happens.
How many 4-5 stars completely bust every season? How many completely busted last year?
MAYBE 2 of all of those guys MIGHT turn out to be elite. And strong still doesn't have the coaches to make players elite.
Wow, you are better than hanging off the cliff like this.
Go to HEB and get some brisket and coors light, it will help
Posted on 1/24/15 at 12:20 pm to Old Sarge
The problem is: we were already banking on 2015 to be that catch up class stocked with elite defensive talent. Even if we do get all the best players in this class, they need time to develop. The 2015 season will be a nice season of on field production. With all the elite 2015 and 2016 players though, a strong case could be made for a 2016 national championship run.
Now, we're talking about extending the timeline ANOTHER year? Another B12 GOR year wasted and more time for Strong to catchup while taking the best players in the state? How can you expect to compete for a championship when we can't win recruiting or on the field in our own state? It's put up or shut up time with taking the best high school players in the state while winning on the field
Now, we're talking about extending the timeline ANOTHER year? Another B12 GOR year wasted and more time for Strong to catchup while taking the best players in the state? How can you expect to compete for a championship when we can't win recruiting or on the field in our own state? It's put up or shut up time with taking the best high school players in the state while winning on the field
Posted on 1/24/15 at 12:21 pm to Raoul_Duke
Can someone explain to me why the Big 12 GOR is some magical countdown?
Posted on 1/24/15 at 12:24 pm to Iosh
Most of us believe tu will bail on the big 12 for the PAC or big 10 at that point. Then they will regain some of the allure they lost when the LHN marooned them
Posted on 1/24/15 at 12:28 pm to cardboardboxer
quote:
This NSD might be the most important day of Sumlin's A&M career so far. I still have faith until proven otherwise, but if he bombs it all we did was give Chavis a nice retirement contract.
Jesus
Posted on 1/24/15 at 12:28 pm to Raoul_Duke
I don't disagree with most of that. I HATE losing a year but it is way more a result of us losing 5 games and not 3.
And we haven't lost a whole class. It was way better than any of us expected that's all. It's still going to be a very very good class.
I get it though, we had a lottery ticket that we thought was worth 10 million, we took it in and now it's only worth 100k.
And we haven't lost a whole class. It was way better than any of us expected that's all. It's still going to be a very very good class.
I get it though, we had a lottery ticket that we thought was worth 10 million, we took it in and now it's only worth 100k.
Posted on 1/24/15 at 12:29 pm to Iosh
quote:
Can someone explain to me why the Big 12 GOR is some magical countdown?
Because tu is gonna jump to a different p5 well will p4 when it expires conference. Most likely the PAC
Posted on 1/24/15 at 12:29 pm to Old Sarge
quote:
Isn't this way premature? Define bombing? Top 15 class? Top 20 class?
IF Kyler bails and takes 2-3 POTENTIALLY ELITE defensive players with him, that is all that happens.
How many 4-5 stars completely bust every season? How many completely busted last year?
You're underestimating the power of the elite 5 star player and overestimating the amount there are in the state.
Noil and Garrett make a difference last year? Hell yeah they did. Those are the types of players that would never consider us in the past. Think we have enough of those to win a championship? No. Garrett can't do it all by himself. So yes, Mack, Lodge, Murray, Jefferson, Little are few and far between and are hugely important. Difference makers
Posted on 1/24/15 at 12:59 pm to Old Sarge
quote:
Isn't this way premature? Define bombing? Top 15 class? Top 20 class?
My personal definition of bombing is striking out on all the DBs and either Mack or a DT of Mack's calibur. But yes, either a top 15 or top 20 class given where we were before the season would be a disaster. In the SEC West that would mean a ceiling of nine wins two years out IMHO. We haven't see any indications that our staff, even the newest hire, can coach up underrated talent like a Pinkel could. The jump between a top 10 class and a top 20 class is huge.
quote:
IF Kyler bails and takes 2-3 POTENTIALLY ELITE defensive players with him, that is all that happens.
THIS cycle. ESPN giving Charlie a blowjob all offseason for pulling it off will make sure it effects the 2016 cycle too.
quote:
MAYBE 2 of all of those guys MIGHT turn out to be elite
I don't care how many pan out. I care about the perception that "Texas is Back" which will happen if they get all these stars and end up higher than us on the recruiting rankings. In recruiting perception is reality to a certain extent. We will be back in the shadow.
quote:
I don't disagree with most of that. I HATE losing a year but it is way more a result of us losing 5 games and not 3.
But it just won't be one year. After we have to bail out the crazy Chavis and Sumlin contracts our AD will be cheap with the next coach so no slash hire. Without the splash we need Texas to suck to gain back momentum, we no longer control our destiny. By that point all the JFF momentum is completely gone, and the window of us ever being the FSU of Texas is almost shut.
quote:
I get it though, we had a lottery ticket that we thought was worth 10 million, we took it in and now it's only worth 100k.
It is more like we though we had a lottery ticket worth a billion, and so we went and spent half of that on credit, but when we go to turn it in we are off by three zeros and its a million and we are bankrupt. If we were a Oregon or something where all this stuff is gravy considering their 60 or whatever thousand people stadium it would be fine to suck. But we just built all these facilities and a 100k stadium to be better than a 8 win team. Hell we need more than that to fill the it! If we bomb this NSD then by 2016 we might be the cheapest ticket in the SEC for opposing fans buying on stubhub.
I am not saying that will happen. I am just saying if it does the answer to a shitty recruiting class (which yes in the SEC top 20 qualifies) isn't Chavis.
Posted on 1/24/15 at 1:04 pm to Iosh
quote:
Can someone explain to me why the Big 12 GOR is some magical countdown?
Because something like OU to the SEC prior to us winning a modern national title would basically ensure that our destiny for 25+ years (basically until football is flag football) will be to be the Texas Tech of the SEC West. This little window of them being locked in a crappy league is our chance to steal back our birthright from them as the FSU of Texas. To do that we need REAL success, the kind we can hang on the stadium, and we need it before the GOR runs out.
Posted on 1/24/15 at 1:04 pm to cardboardboxer
quote:
But it just won't be one year. After we have to bail out the crazy Chavis and Sumlin contracts our AD will be cheap with the next coach so no slash hire. Without the splash we need Texas to suck to gain back momentum, we no longer control our destiny. By that point all the JFF momentum is completely gone, and the window of us ever being the FSU of Texas is almost shut.
WOW, your crystal ball for the far far future is full of storm clouds.
Posted on 1/24/15 at 1:11 pm to cardboardboxer
quote:
We start dipping down to top 15 classes instead of top 5-10 and we basically turn into a team like Ole Miss that is at best gonna upset a bigger team but not win anything worth a damn.
You just described aggy football perfectly.
Posted on 1/24/15 at 1:12 pm to Old Sarge
quote:
WOW, your crystal ball for the far far future is full of storm clouds.
Sherm's buyout kept us from getting coach Narduzzi. We were cheap when we couldn't be because we had to be. Maybe with him JFF wins at least a BCS bowl instead of barely beating Duke in a chicken bowl. That would give us way more wind in our sails right now.
I am not saying I know the future, I am saying that to pretend that what happens this offseason happens in some vacuum we can easily recover from next year is even worse than saying Chavis is the magic bean.
Charlie pulls this move off and all of a sudden he controls his destiny. You are the one making the prediction that he will suck, but if you are wrong on that (I mean he was a decent coach before he came to Texas) then we won't have any momentum to defend against his pitches. We got back to second fiddle in the state for talent, maybe third if TCU/Baylor actually wins a freak national title or OU makes a splash hire after Stoops. If we are ever third on the Texas talent queue we are fighting MSU for bottom of the SEC West. Our reign at the top is SO tentative that a gust of wind could blow us off. That gust could be Kyler.
I still have faith Sumlin pulls it off. He is smart, and I think he knows the stakes. If it isn't Kyler he will find some way to have a top 10 class. I will drink that koolaid until I can't.
Posted on 1/24/15 at 1:13 pm to Cooter Davenport
quote:
Kyle Allen is the QB.
There will be competition but there is no way in hell Kyler can beat out Kyle to start the year. Just no way. The ONLY way Murray starts the first game is if Kyle is injured and cannot go. Any scenario other than "Kyle cannot physically play" is laughable.
A big part of QB in this offense is understanding the reads and adjusting. It takes a QB several games to start understanding this offense. It took JFF 5 games before things started to click. Kyle Allen had a similar progression through several games. The first game he played was called very conservatively. This was by necessity, not design.
Kyle Murray cannot possibly beat out Kyle Allen to start the season. If we had Swoopes at QB last year, then frick yes. We didn't. We had Kyle Allen and he played pretty damn well. If Murray comes he is on the bench to start the year and probably ends up staying there. Sumlin is NOT the type of coach to make a mid season QB change without a real problem.
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