re: Why tf can't we get Ole Miss in round 1???

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I’m rooting for UVA in round 1 And Indiana in round 2 Easy wins then hope for a miracle

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I looked at win probabilities before Kiffin left by round and I had the title probability about 17%.

The best strategy is a good draw for the combo of rounds 1 and 2. Once you get deeper, you’ll almost certainly run into better teams with win probabilities I had at significantly under 50% BUT hoping for a good round 1 opponent and a provable good round 2 opponent is best.

Not a large sample size but homefield advantage in round 1 was huge last year.