UF vs FSU: A Somewhat In-Depth Analysis

I’ll start by saying everyone knows Florida’s offense is not that good. We also know FSU’s offense is ranked pretty high. However, FSU has played two FCS teams, one 5-6 and the other 1-10. They averaged 62 ppg and 510 ypg between the two. Since their win against Clemson over 2 months ago (9/22), here are the records of the teams they’ve played:

USF 3-7 (O-91st, D-63rd)
NCST 6-5 (O-64th, D-56th) Loss
BC 2-9 (O-103rd, D-79th)
Miami 6-5 (O-57th, D-73rd)
Duke 6-5 (O-52nd, D-99th)
VT 5-6 (O-75th, D-48th)
MD 4-7 (O-112th, D-53rd)

Best: Record 6-5 O-52nd D-48th
?Average: Record 5-6 O- 79th D-67th

Since that same time, here’s who the Gators have played:

LSU 9-2 (O-46th, D-12th)
Vandy 7-4 (O-74th, D-16th)
USCe 9-2 (O-41st, D-13th)
UGA 10-1 (O-21st, D-18th) Loss
Mizz 5-6 (O-81st, D-54th)
ULL 6-4 (O-38th, D-66th)
Jax St 6-5 FCS

Best: Record 10-1 O-21st D-12th
Average: Record 7-3 O- 50th D-30th

Strength of schedule is important proven by the SEC’s performance in bowl games and championships. FSU has not played a defense remotely close to Florida’s. They have not played against our type of speed or physicality all season. I don’t think either offense will move the ball much and it’ll come down to special teams and turnovers. The keys to the Gator’s victories this year have been to control field position and win the turnover battle. It’s the reason we won most of our games and the reason we lost against UGA. Our defense and special teams are the best in the nation and put us in the position to win every game we play. This is why I’m looking at 2 key stats that are difficult to inflate:

Net Punting
#3 Florida 41.58 yds/punt
#101 FSU 34.53 yds/punt

Turnover Margin
#9 Florida +13
#69 FSU -2

I think these two advantages will give the Gators the edge on Saturday (assuming Driskel plays).