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TeamsRankings Bracketology Update
Posted on 1/8/20 at 10:15 pm
Posted on 1/8/20 at 10:15 pm
TeamsRankings.com has been my favorite place for data-driven bracketology data the past few years, especially since RPIForecast went down. Take their actual seed listings with a grain of salt because human bracketologists tend to be more accurate on the day-to-day than these types of projections, but it's still interesting to look at certain features this site has. My favorite is probably at-large bid % with a certain amount of wins.
Here's what they say about each team:
Auburn -- #3 overall, #1 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 100% (24% auto, 76% at-large)
% of receiving a #1 seed: 43%
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 88%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
23+ wins: 100%
22: 99.9%
21: 98.8%
20: 88.0%
19: 42.8%
18: 16.2%
Kentucky -- #19 overall, #2 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 97% (21% auto, 76% at-large)
% of receiving a #1 seed: 2%
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 42%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
23+ wins: 100%
22: 99.9%
21: 98.9%
20: 92.3%
19: 62.7%
18: 24.0%
Arkansas -- #27 overall, #3 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 80% (9% auto, 71% at-large)
% of receiving a #1 seed: 2%
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 24%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
25+ wins: 100%
24: 99.4%
23: 96.1%
22: 82.2%
21: 49.9%
20: 16.5%
Florida -- #28 overall, #4 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 97% (15% auto, 82% at-large)
% of receiving a #1 seed: 2%
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 28%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
21+ wins: 100%
20: 99.7%
19: 96.5%
18: 84.6%
17: 49.9%
16: 13.8%
LSU -- #29 overall, #5 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 88% (13% auto, 74% at-large)
% of receiving a #1 seed: 2%
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 22%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
23+ wins: 100%
22: 99.9%
21: 98.7%
20: 91.9%
19: 64.4%
18: 25.2%
Mississippi State -- #41 overall, #6 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 52% (4% auto, 48% at-large)
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 3%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
24+ wins: 100%
23: 99.9%
22: 99.4%
21: 95.7%
20: 78.6%
19: 45.0%
18: 12.6%
Alabama -- #43 overall, #7 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 59% (4% auto, 55% at-large)
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 3%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
21+ wins: 100%
20: 99.9%
19: 98.4%
18: 90.9%
17: 61.1%
16: 20.0%
Tennessee -- #47 overall, #8 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 70% (5% auto, 66% at-large)
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 3%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
21+ wins: 100%
20: 99.6%
19: 96.9%
18: 83.3%
17: 50.1%
16: 13.7%
Georgia -- #59 overall, #9 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 31% (2% auto, 29% at-large)
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 1%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
24+ wins: 100%
23: 99.4%
22: 95.9%
21: 84.0%
20: 51.3%
19: 17.3%
Missouri -- #64 overall, #10 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 21% (4% auto, 18% at-large)
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 1%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
24+ wins: 100%
23: 99.2%
22: 91.7%
21: 72.9%
20: 37.4%
19: 11.4%
Ole Miss -- #88 overall, #11 SEC
% of receiving a tournament bid: 2% (1% auto, 1% at-large)
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 0%
% of receiving an at-large bid with x-number of wins:
24: 100%
23: 96.2%
22: 81.1%
21: 42.7%
20: 15.9%
South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M -- #who cares overall, #12-14 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 0% (0% auto, 0% at-large)
% of receiving a #1 seed: 0%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
TR gives South Carolina a 99.9% chance if they win out to get 24 wins, but there's a steep dropoff from there. If Vanderbilt wins out, they're given a 58.9%. If Texas A&M wins out, they're given 23.4%.
Here's what they say about each team:
Auburn -- #3 overall, #1 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 100% (24% auto, 76% at-large)
% of receiving a #1 seed: 43%
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 88%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
23+ wins: 100%
22: 99.9%
21: 98.8%
20: 88.0%
19: 42.8%
18: 16.2%
Kentucky -- #19 overall, #2 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 97% (21% auto, 76% at-large)
% of receiving a #1 seed: 2%
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 42%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
23+ wins: 100%
22: 99.9%
21: 98.9%
20: 92.3%
19: 62.7%
18: 24.0%
Arkansas -- #27 overall, #3 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 80% (9% auto, 71% at-large)
% of receiving a #1 seed: 2%
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 24%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
25+ wins: 100%
24: 99.4%
23: 96.1%
22: 82.2%
21: 49.9%
20: 16.5%
Florida -- #28 overall, #4 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 97% (15% auto, 82% at-large)
% of receiving a #1 seed: 2%
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 28%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
21+ wins: 100%
20: 99.7%
19: 96.5%
18: 84.6%
17: 49.9%
16: 13.8%
LSU -- #29 overall, #5 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 88% (13% auto, 74% at-large)
% of receiving a #1 seed: 2%
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 22%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
23+ wins: 100%
22: 99.9%
21: 98.7%
20: 91.9%
19: 64.4%
18: 25.2%
Mississippi State -- #41 overall, #6 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 52% (4% auto, 48% at-large)
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 3%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
24+ wins: 100%
23: 99.9%
22: 99.4%
21: 95.7%
20: 78.6%
19: 45.0%
18: 12.6%
Alabama -- #43 overall, #7 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 59% (4% auto, 55% at-large)
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 3%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
21+ wins: 100%
20: 99.9%
19: 98.4%
18: 90.9%
17: 61.1%
16: 20.0%
Tennessee -- #47 overall, #8 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 70% (5% auto, 66% at-large)
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 3%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
21+ wins: 100%
20: 99.6%
19: 96.9%
18: 83.3%
17: 50.1%
16: 13.7%
Georgia -- #59 overall, #9 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 31% (2% auto, 29% at-large)
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 1%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
24+ wins: 100%
23: 99.4%
22: 95.9%
21: 84.0%
20: 51.3%
19: 17.3%
Missouri -- #64 overall, #10 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 21% (4% auto, 18% at-large)
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 1%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
24+ wins: 100%
23: 99.2%
22: 91.7%
21: 72.9%
20: 37.4%
19: 11.4%
Ole Miss -- #88 overall, #11 SEC
% of receiving a tournament bid: 2% (1% auto, 1% at-large)
% of receiving a #1-4 seed: 0%
% of receiving an at-large bid with x-number of wins:
24: 100%
23: 96.2%
22: 81.1%
21: 42.7%
20: 15.9%
South Carolina, Vanderbilt, and Texas A&M -- #who cares overall, #12-14 SEC
% of receiving an tournament bid: 0% (0% auto, 0% at-large)
% of receiving a #1 seed: 0%
% of receiving at-large bid with x-number of wins:
TR gives South Carolina a 99.9% chance if they win out to get 24 wins, but there's a steep dropoff from there. If Vanderbilt wins out, they're given a 58.9%. If Texas A&M wins out, they're given 23.4%.
This post was edited on 1/8/20 at 10:23 pm
6
Posted on 1/8/20 at 10:16 pm to GatorsGators
Observations: You can see who played a tough non-conference schedule from who has more cushion in getting an at-large bid. Florida, Alabama, and Tennessee wouldn't actually make the dance with 16 wins, but those teams will be in the conversation throughout the year despite mediocre W-L records.
This model doesn't consider injuries, namely Lamonte Turner's, so they're obviously going to be higher on teams with significant injuries than humans are. Tennessee probably shouldn't be discounted as a bubble team if they can bounce back, though, and it looks like they can with their recent win at Mizzou.
Computers like Florida, LSU, Mississippi State, and Alabama more than the humans do. Whereas Ole Miss is a team that's popped up in bracketology at various points this season, and the computers completely dismiss this Ole Miss team as a possible at-large team.
I think, even though the conference is down, it's at least a 5-bid league this season, possibly a 6-bid league. Auburn, UK, UF, LSU, and Arkansas are solid imo. Then I wouldn't be surprised at all if one of Alabama, Mississippi State, Georgia, or Tennessee gets in.
What say the Rant?
This model doesn't consider injuries, namely Lamonte Turner's, so they're obviously going to be higher on teams with significant injuries than humans are. Tennessee probably shouldn't be discounted as a bubble team if they can bounce back, though, and it looks like they can with their recent win at Mizzou.
Computers like Florida, LSU, Mississippi State, and Alabama more than the humans do. Whereas Ole Miss is a team that's popped up in bracketology at various points this season, and the computers completely dismiss this Ole Miss team as a possible at-large team.
I think, even though the conference is down, it's at least a 5-bid league this season, possibly a 6-bid league. Auburn, UK, UF, LSU, and Arkansas are solid imo. Then I wouldn't be surprised at all if one of Alabama, Mississippi State, Georgia, or Tennessee gets in.
What say the Rant?
This post was edited on 1/8/20 at 10:24 pm
Posted on 1/8/20 at 10:17 pm to GatorsGators
I'll take it
Posted on 1/8/20 at 10:18 pm to GatorsGators
Citations
“NCAA Bracket Projections 2020 & Projected Bracket.” NCAA Bracket Projections 2020, www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/detail/.
Better link: TR Bracketology
“NCAA Bracket Projections 2020 & Projected Bracket.” NCAA Bracket Projections 2020, www.teamrankings.com/ncaa-tournament/bracketology/detail/.
Better link: TR Bracketology
This post was edited on 1/8/20 at 10:29 pm
Posted on 1/8/20 at 10:18 pm to GatorsGators
Auburn with a 16% chance at 18 wins.....Bama at 91% at 18 wins. 
No wonder they are undefeated
No wonder they are undefeatedThis post was edited on 1/8/20 at 10:41 pm
Posted on 1/8/20 at 10:19 pm to BFANLC
Also, a note: this is prior to tonight's games, so I'm sure Alabama took a big rise and Mississippi State took a big fall. I doubt the Arkansas-LSU result affected the model too much.
Posted on 1/8/20 at 10:22 pm to GatorsGators
Tennessee is really, really bad.
They would have to play out of their minds to get to 17 wins which still likely wouldn't be enough.
Barnes even said after the game last night that this season has become about individual improvement and putting what they can do on tape.
They would have to play out of their minds to get to 17 wins which still likely wouldn't be enough.
Barnes even said after the game last night that this season has become about individual improvement and putting what they can do on tape.
Posted on 1/8/20 at 10:27 pm to volfan30
Ya'll beat Missouri on the road last night, though, and Missouri is hardly one of the worst teams in the league.
You look like a middle-pack team even without Turner. The better teams in the conference will expose your lack of scoring ability and ball handling, but you're still going to be able to beat the bottom of the conference
I don't think it's particularly likely but I wouldn't discount the possibility of Tennessee finding a way to get to 10-8 in conference and limping in as a bubble team. You guys already have 3 Q1 wins, too
You look like a middle-pack team even without Turner. The better teams in the conference will expose your lack of scoring ability and ball handling, but you're still going to be able to beat the bottom of the conference
I don't think it's particularly likely but I wouldn't discount the possibility of Tennessee finding a way to get to 10-8 in conference and limping in as a bubble team. You guys already have 3 Q1 wins, too
Posted on 1/8/20 at 10:30 pm to mistaken4193
you just can't help yourself, Can you?
Posted on 1/8/20 at 10:32 pm to GatorsGators
LSUs ranking just went up.
Posted on 1/8/20 at 10:34 pm to ImayGoLesMiles
I doubt it did that much. Computers aren't huge fans of Arkansas and you guys were 6.5-point favorites tonight. You probably held steady.
Posted on 1/8/20 at 10:38 pm to GatorsGators
But we are one of the worst teams in the league and we’re without Tilmon
Posted on 1/8/20 at 10:40 pm to JesusQuintana
There are worse teams than Mizzou in this conference even without Tillmon
A&M is awful, and they just held Ole Miss to 47 points...
The bottom of the league isn't good. I think volfan is underestimating that in his panic about this UT team.
A&M is awful, and they just held Ole Miss to 47 points...
The bottom of the league isn't good. I think volfan is underestimating that in his panic about this UT team.
Posted on 1/8/20 at 10:43 pm to GatorsGators
Well you said one of the worst.
Probably not THE worst, but we are barely above that tier especially with Tilmon being out (likely for the year)
Tennessee honestly didn’t look very good to me, we are just that bad
Probably not THE worst, but we are barely above that tier especially with Tilmon being out (likely for the year)
Tennessee honestly didn’t look very good to me, we are just that bad
Posted on 1/8/20 at 10:46 pm to JesusQuintana
I'd put Ole Miss, Texas A&M, Vandy, and South Carolina all below Mizzou. Like Mizzou isn't good but I don't know you can consider the #10 team "one of the worst"
Tennessee isn't good but they're more competent than those teams and have a fairly easy conference stretch coming up. They could absolutely finish the first half of conference play 5-2
Tennessee isn't good but they're more competent than those teams and have a fairly easy conference stretch coming up. They could absolutely finish the first half of conference play 5-2
Posted on 1/8/20 at 10:48 pm to GatorsGators
I'm not panicked I just think a lot has to go right to even beat a mediocre Mizzou team without Tillmon.
Roster is extremely thin. Pons is a 4th option on a good team. Fulkerson is a nice bench player. Those guys are being asked to be primary options.
JJJ is really playing well lately and looks like he could be a nice 2nd-3rd option on a very good team as soon as next year, but he is still developing and doesn't have the mentality to be the top guy even on a team this bad. Vescovi is really exciting but very flawed right now.
That's literally it. Rest of the roster is straight trash.
On nights Bowden decides to show up we can be a middle of the pack team, but when he disappears we can lose to anyone. I think we win 6 games or so in the league. We will get absolutely hammered in the back half of the league schedule.
Roster is extremely thin. Pons is a 4th option on a good team. Fulkerson is a nice bench player. Those guys are being asked to be primary options.
JJJ is really playing well lately and looks like he could be a nice 2nd-3rd option on a very good team as soon as next year, but he is still developing and doesn't have the mentality to be the top guy even on a team this bad. Vescovi is really exciting but very flawed right now.
That's literally it. Rest of the roster is straight trash.
On nights Bowden decides to show up we can be a middle of the pack team, but when he disappears we can lose to anyone. I think we win 6 games or so in the league. We will get absolutely hammered in the back half of the league schedule.
Posted on 1/8/20 at 10:50 pm to volfan30
I agree that whether Tennessee is a 6-win team or a 9-win team depends on whether Bowden can step up and be a primary option for this team like he was expected to be
I'm not saying 10 wins is likely. I just wouldn't be shocked if it were to happen. It's the reasonable ceiling for this UT team. I'd guess 7 or 8 wins though
I'm not saying 10 wins is likely. I just wouldn't be shocked if it were to happen. It's the reasonable ceiling for this UT team. I'd guess 7 or 8 wins though
This post was edited on 1/8/20 at 10:52 pm
Posted on 1/8/20 at 10:55 pm to GatorsGators
On nights where JJJ, Bowden and Vescovi all play well we are decent. Pons and Fulkerson are pretty consistent, if unspectacular and flawed.
Tough to expect much though when the 3 guys you are counting on are 2 freshmen and a senior who has had one of the most hot and cold careers in school history.
Tough to expect much though when the 3 guys you are counting on are 2 freshmen and a senior who has had one of the most hot and cold careers in school history.
Posted on 1/9/20 at 5:55 am to volfan30
Yeah, I get why expectations are low
Posted on 1/9/20 at 6:11 am to GatorsGators
Alabama jumped from #43 overall to #40 last night, and 59% of getting a bid to 69%.
Mississippi State took a big tumble down to #57 and 31%.
Mississippi State took a big tumble down to #57 and 31%.
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