Only 224 perfect brackets left as of this morning.

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Only 224 perfect brackets left as if this morning.

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Probably?

AI says there are 9.2 quintillion possible brackets for the NCAA March Madness tournament.

Or more specifically:

Here's the TL/DR version of the odds of a perfect NCAA bracket:

1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (if you just guess or flip a coin)
1 in 120.2 billion (if you know a little something about basketball)


I imagine the years that a 1 or 2 seed got upset in the first round had fewer remaining perfect brackets after round 1 than this. How often do people predict a 1 or 2 seed upset in the first round?

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1 in 9,223,372,036,854,775,808 (if you just guess or flip a coin)
1 in 120.2 billion (if you know a little something about basketball)

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Well stated. Here's some math.

If its a coin flip ? As the man said, you have to pick 67 games correctly. That's 1 / 2^67. Or .5^67 if you like. That's long odds.

But lets say you've got a 90% insight into who will win a game ? That's professional gambler good. Never work a day in your life good.

.9^7 = 47%. Just do it on your phone if you don't grok the math. .9 times .9. FWIW ... even with a 90% accuracy - you've got a 0.09% chance of picking them all.

Picking 67 games correctly is a unicorn.

And one downvote because why ? You don't like math ? Math is hard ?

This place. I dunno'.

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0.9^67 = 0.00086%

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Gotta' multiply that by 100 to convert it to a percentile homey.

0.01 is 1%.

Lottery ... at least the Powerball ...

(5/69)(4/68)(3/67)(2/66)(1/65)(1/26)

Or about 300 million to 1.

Way easier than picking a perfect bracket with 50/50 knowledge.