re: Iron Bowl line is climbing.. now at 4.5

quote:

---

quote:

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
but the distinction between the two is more myth than reality.
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------



Wrong.

Also, the line moving about 30% is substantial.

---

Brah, you are 100% clueless about gambling. And a 1 point move from 3.5 to 4.5 is not that significant. Now, if it moves 2.5 points to a key number like 6, that would be significant. Also, a move from 2 to 3 would be at least a little significant since it would be a fg spread. But from 3.5 to 4.5? Not so much.

However a 1 point move on a college game happens on at least 50% of every televised game every week. Probably more like 60-65%.

You are probably one of those complete idiots with about a dozen gambling "strategies" like reverse line movements and bet against the public (even though you have no clue how to even distinguish so called publec money).

Am I right?

ETA: As a brief example I just went back and looked at the lines for the 5 SEC games last Sat...

4/5 had a line movement > 1 point during the week. 80%.

The movement was right twice and wrong twice as you would expect.

That is not the only forum practically every major handicapping service's plays are posted on.

Anyone paying for them is wasting money. One because they are easy to find. Two because the plays are 95% worthless.

quote:

---

I have over two decades of experience in the sports gambling industry, in Vegas. What are your qualifications?

---

Ok. We won't argue, but I have wagered for about 10 years on all sports. I spent an entire year betting on sports, as basically a full time job. Hell, more than a full time job, about 60 hours a week, likely more. I think I have read every theory imaginable and have done thousands of calcs, regression analysis on all sorts of probabilities. I wasted such an inordinate amount of time it is pretty mind boggling IMO.

I guess it paid off in that I did not lose my arse. In one year alone, when I was doing it full time, I had over a mil in action and won about $20k (expected loses should have been about $50k and it was a massive sample size). Most worthless year of my life since I spent 3-4x more than what I made. I still have a spreadsheet where I tracked over 6000 picks from 15 different pro handicappers from 6-7 different services (all the well-known ones) for over a 400 day period. It was amazing how they rarely varied significantly statistically from a mean that was profitible. In other words they are mostly full of shite and more marketers and salesmen that experts.

And no, a 1 point line movement is still not significant from 3.5-4.5.

Yeah, the write-ups can give you something to think about and someone else has put some time into some research, so never hurts to read them as you are careful not to give the guys writing them too much credit.

sbrforum.com is a good one as far as having a lot of the service plays posted on the forums.

I don't give any of them more credit than they deserve when I make my picks... I've done pretty good, pretty bad for a 2 weeks and real good this past two weeks. I don't bet large amounts and it's never anything that is going to hurt me financially. I can usually find 3 good winners that I really like and have been hitting a very high % of those. Then I do a bunch a small $10-$25 multigame parlays for fun... I've only hit one which won 1350. I've come close on a bunch hitting 7-8 5+ times... LOL... I've only had 1 oppportunity where I could bet against my last pick to garuantee $ and thnakfully LOL