I figured out exactly how Alabama can miss the SEC Championship Game without another loss

There is a very narrow path that could put Georgia over Alabama in the SECCG even with a win at Auburn but it needs some specific game outcomes to take place. I'll put them here in order of importance:

1. Kentucky beats Vanderbilt (23% chance) AND Ole Miss beats Mississippi State (78% chance)
These are the main dominoes that MUST happen if UGA wants to make it to Atlanta. There was no scenario without both of these outcomes that gets Georgia into the SECCG.

2. Florida beats Tennessee (35% chance)
If the Gators upset the Vols, it would help Georgia's chances tremendously as long as Kentucky and Ole Miss both win. If Tennessee wins, Georgia wouldn't be totally out of it, but some other things would need to happen to compensate. (Texas over Arky, followed by Arky over Mizzou 36% chance)

3. Texas beats Arkansas (83% chance)
This one also has a caveat: If Arkansas were to beat Texas, it would knock Georgia out of the championship game UNLESS the Hogs followed it up with a win against Missouri the next week.

I want to be clear that some combination of ALL of these needs to happen, not just the first one. It's kind of crazy to see how weirdly impactful the Missouri - Arkansas game could end up being, if the dominoes all fell into place. That being said, this weekend could settle it if Vandy beats UK. The Iron Bowl would truly be a "win and you're in" game.

There also might be an argument to be made that Alabama doesn't need or even want the SECCG. Currently, the ESPN Playoff Predictor has Alabama with a 67% shot to make it with an SECCG loss, and an 84% chance to make it if they don't even go. Now, how that would actually play out in the committee's final rankings on Selection Sunday is anyone's guess.

This was all made possible by mred's SEC Standings generator.