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Florida preview....I'm putting this one out early due to the week 0 game.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 5:40 am
Posted on 8/21/19 at 5:40 am
I'll try to get them all in with win/loss predictions for each game for every SEC team before the 31st.
Florida predicted win/loss
August 31 Miami W Orlando, Fla.
September 7 UT Martin W Gainesville, Fla.
September 14 Kentucky W Lexington, Ky.
September 21 Tennessee W Gainesville, Fla.
September 28 Towson W Gainesville, Fla.
October 5 Auburn L Gainesville, Fla.
October 12 LSU L Baton Rouge, La.
October 19 South Carolina L Columbia, S.C.
October 26 BYE
November 2 Georgia L Jacksonville, Fla.
November 9 Vanderbilt W Gainesville, Fla.
November 16 Missouri W Columbia, Mo.
November 23 BYE
November 30 Florida State W Gainesville, Fla.
December 7 SEC Championship :’-) Atlanta, Ga.
I actually picked the Gators to do better than most last year (spot on at 9-3) and to finish second in the East. I was absolutely right as usual. . Technically, if you want to use a tiebreaker head to head, you can say they finished 3rd in the East, but either way I was pretty close.
This year though, they look a lot like South Carolina last year. A team that probably ended up with a record better than the team really was. A team hyped somewhat going into the next season. South Carolina was not as good as the prognosticators thought. I correctly predicted SC to not be as good as everyone thought. Like South Carolina, the Gators beat a Michigan team highly regarded. That has a lot to do with how good many think they’ll be this year. If they had lost that game, I don’t think we’d hear nearly as much hype. Like South Carolina, the Gators won several close games where they were aided by the turnover margin, but didn’t look as good in the box score. And in conference games Florida only averaged 23 positive net yards per game comparing total offense to total defense. Two losses were by a wide margin in conference and another by 11. Four wins were by ten points or less with three being one score wins.
It is also worth nothing that Franks had his magical four game turnaround that has some Gators whispering Heisman against a an FCS opponent, two schools ranked in the 80’s in total defense and a Michigan team that had three starters sit out the bowl game (two drafted in the top 12 by the NFL) and another playing with a fairly severe injury. And from a passing standpoint, the Michigan game wasn’t all that impressive anyway.
Florida has a lot of practice experience, if not game experience, in it’s first 22. But there is not a lot of depth, especially at defensive back and on the offensive line. And the offensive line isn’t considered a strength to begin with. Their defense should be stout if they suffer little in the injury department and they do have great skill position players on offense. I’d say their ceiling is 10-2 if they can get through without any major injuries and their floor is 6-6 if they end up with injuries in the wrong places.
I feel pretty certain about the losses to UGA, LSU and Auburn. The other loss could be Mizzou, Tennessee or South Carolina, but I'm gonna go with SC since it's on the road and following two tough games.
Florida predicted win/loss
August 31 Miami W Orlando, Fla.
September 7 UT Martin W Gainesville, Fla.
September 14 Kentucky W Lexington, Ky.
September 21 Tennessee W Gainesville, Fla.
September 28 Towson W Gainesville, Fla.
October 5 Auburn L Gainesville, Fla.
October 12 LSU L Baton Rouge, La.
October 19 South Carolina L Columbia, S.C.
October 26 BYE
November 2 Georgia L Jacksonville, Fla.
November 9 Vanderbilt W Gainesville, Fla.
November 16 Missouri W Columbia, Mo.
November 23 BYE
November 30 Florida State W Gainesville, Fla.
December 7 SEC Championship :’-) Atlanta, Ga.
I actually picked the Gators to do better than most last year (spot on at 9-3) and to finish second in the East. I was absolutely right as usual. . Technically, if you want to use a tiebreaker head to head, you can say they finished 3rd in the East, but either way I was pretty close.
This year though, they look a lot like South Carolina last year. A team that probably ended up with a record better than the team really was. A team hyped somewhat going into the next season. South Carolina was not as good as the prognosticators thought. I correctly predicted SC to not be as good as everyone thought. Like South Carolina, the Gators beat a Michigan team highly regarded. That has a lot to do with how good many think they’ll be this year. If they had lost that game, I don’t think we’d hear nearly as much hype. Like South Carolina, the Gators won several close games where they were aided by the turnover margin, but didn’t look as good in the box score. And in conference games Florida only averaged 23 positive net yards per game comparing total offense to total defense. Two losses were by a wide margin in conference and another by 11. Four wins were by ten points or less with three being one score wins.
It is also worth nothing that Franks had his magical four game turnaround that has some Gators whispering Heisman against a an FCS opponent, two schools ranked in the 80’s in total defense and a Michigan team that had three starters sit out the bowl game (two drafted in the top 12 by the NFL) and another playing with a fairly severe injury. And from a passing standpoint, the Michigan game wasn’t all that impressive anyway.
Florida has a lot of practice experience, if not game experience, in it’s first 22. But there is not a lot of depth, especially at defensive back and on the offensive line. And the offensive line isn’t considered a strength to begin with. Their defense should be stout if they suffer little in the injury department and they do have great skill position players on offense. I’d say their ceiling is 10-2 if they can get through without any major injuries and their floor is 6-6 if they end up with injuries in the wrong places.
I feel pretty certain about the losses to UGA, LSU and Auburn. The other loss could be Mizzou, Tennessee or South Carolina, but I'm gonna go with SC since it's on the road and following two tough games.
This post was edited on 8/21/19 at 9:00 am
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Posted on 8/21/19 at 5:42 am to koreandawg
FL ain't beating Mizzou....book it
Posted on 8/21/19 at 5:45 am to Wtodd
quote:
FL ain't beating Mizzou....book it
If you read the whole piece, I said that the fourth loss could come from S Carolina, Mizzou or Tennessee. That won't be shocking. I'm not sold on Bryant though and I think it's always hard for teams to find a lot of motivation when their outcome is pretty much sealed. You don't know your won/loss record, but your season will end in November. No one else in the SEC is working with that knowledge.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 5:58 am to koreandawg
They are deep at rb, wr, qb, dl, lb, and safety.
They have depth issues at ol first and foremost and slightly less so at corner.
If they dodge injuries at those position groups they will be good.
I think LSU and uga are better and Mizzou just has their number so gun to my head I say 9-3, but depending on how the breaks fall they could go as bad as 7-5 or as good as 11-1 and I wouldn’t be surprised.
They have depth issues at ol first and foremost and slightly less so at corner.
If they dodge injuries at those position groups they will be good.
I think LSU and uga are better and Mizzou just has their number so gun to my head I say 9-3, but depending on how the breaks fall they could go as bad as 7-5 or as good as 11-1 and I wouldn’t be surprised.
This post was edited on 8/21/19 at 5:59 am
Posted on 8/21/19 at 6:13 am to koreandawg
We arent going 8-4 in Mullens second year after 10 wins his first year. We have a better overall team. More experienced QB, defenders understand the defense more(out of place safeties cost us quite a few points), and second years are almost never worse than first years for coaches(good ones which Mullen is). Georgia fans really want Florida to regress, but isn't happening.
As for our ceiling being 10 wins...you can honestly go frick yourself with that horse shite. Our ceiling is the playoffs. It's why we are in the top ten to start the year. Every top ten team has a playoff ceiling. Just because you despise UF doesnt change that. Sure Auburn wins despite a true freshman and a lot more questions? Just shows your bias.
1980. Sorry you couldnt get it done while UF retooled.
As for our ceiling being 10 wins...you can honestly go frick yourself with that horse shite. Our ceiling is the playoffs. It's why we are in the top ten to start the year. Every top ten team has a playoff ceiling. Just because you despise UF doesnt change that. Sure Auburn wins despite a true freshman and a lot more questions? Just shows your bias.
1980. Sorry you couldnt get it done while UF retooled.
This post was edited on 8/21/19 at 6:14 am
Posted on 8/21/19 at 6:23 am to slayerxing
quote:
If they dodge injuries
Bruh, this is the SEC. You won't Dodge injury
Posted on 8/21/19 at 6:23 am to Gatorbait2008
quote:
We arent going 8-4 in Mullens second year after 10 wins his first year. We have a better overall team. More experienced QB, defenders understand the defense more(out of place safeties cost us quite a few points), and second years are almost never worse than first years for coaches(good ones which Mullen is). Georgia fans really want Florida to regress, but isn't happening.
LSU and UGA aren't games I'd pick us to win. I'm not saying we have no shot, but we are almost certainly not going to be favorites going into those games. I'd say Missouri and Auburn are coin flips. South Carolina could also be a tough out.
8-4 isn't that unlikely and I'm not even sure I'd call it regression depending on how those losses shake out. If we stay healthy, 9 to 10 wins seems about right, so 8 isn't inconceivable.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 6:23 am to Gatorbait2008
quote:
We arent going 8-4 in Mullens second year after 10 wins his first year. We have a better overall team. More experienced QB, defenders understand the defense more(out of place safeties cost us quite a few points), and second years are almost never worse than first years for coaches(good ones which Mullen is). Georgia fans really want Florida to regress, but isn't happening.
As for our ceiling being 10 wins...you can honestly go frick yourself with that horse shite. Our ceiling is the playoffs. It's why we are in the top ten to start the year. Every top ten team has a playoff ceiling. Just because you despise UF doesnt change that. Sure Auburn wins despite a true freshman and a lot more questions? Just shows your bias.
1980. Sorry you couldnt get it done while UF retooled.
99% of the national guys covering college football will tell you that only about 8 teams have any real shot at the playoffs. Some may be only at UF's level, but they don't play in the SEC. Your ceiling is not the playoff. Even if you want to believe UGA is not near Bama level, so you can get to Atlanta, the problem is that your team is not near Bama level. You'll need both UGA and Bama to crap the bed. That ain't happening.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 6:37 am to koreandawg
I believe Georgia is near Bama level. Coaching isnt near it though. That staff is a group of recruiters.
As for having to beat Bama. Do we? How many two SEC team playoffs have we seen? I dont think we can beat Bama either, but you don't have to to reach the playoffs in the SEC. LSU could possibly go out of the West, eliminated beating Bama. Georgia and UF can each finish with 1 loss, Georgia loses in ATL, Florida ends up in the playoffs(not unlikely with the SEC push).
Claiming no chance at the playoffs is nonsense. Second year coaches show the most improvement and that you know to be true. So why does UF not get better? If Kirby can go 7-5 to Playoffs...Mullen can go 10-3 to playoffs.
As for having to beat Bama. Do we? How many two SEC team playoffs have we seen? I dont think we can beat Bama either, but you don't have to to reach the playoffs in the SEC. LSU could possibly go out of the West, eliminated beating Bama. Georgia and UF can each finish with 1 loss, Georgia loses in ATL, Florida ends up in the playoffs(not unlikely with the SEC push).
Claiming no chance at the playoffs is nonsense. Second year coaches show the most improvement and that you know to be true. So why does UF not get better? If Kirby can go 7-5 to Playoffs...Mullen can go 10-3 to playoffs.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 6:45 am to Gatorbait2008
How many teams have lost the SECCG and gone to the playoff?
The only way you are going to do that is to go undefeated in the regular seaosn. I have no idea why you expect to. Hope? Sure. I get that. But expect? Heck, I don't even expect that and I have a lot more reason to.
The only way you are going to do that is to go undefeated in the regular seaosn. I have no idea why you expect to. Hope? Sure. I get that. But expect? Heck, I don't even expect that and I have a lot more reason to.
This post was edited on 8/21/19 at 6:46 am
Posted on 8/21/19 at 6:54 am to koreandawg
I simply said there are chances. Ceiling means best possible.
To claim UF has zero chance as a top ten team to reach the playoffs is absurd.
I an not claiming we will, I am claiming it is possible. You eliminated the possibility, so I bought up two possibilities to make it. You at no time account for the second year leap a team takes with a new staff. How does that not factor? Wont factor in Mullen has a history of beating Ed O(LSU loss is by no means a sure thing with this series)? Then assuming Auburn..one of the biggest question marks in the SEC comes into the Swamp and no doubt wins...the hell? They magically change from an average football team because of a freshman QB now?
You cant go undefeated and not make the SEC title btw...that made no sense.
To claim UF has zero chance as a top ten team to reach the playoffs is absurd.
I an not claiming we will, I am claiming it is possible. You eliminated the possibility, so I bought up two possibilities to make it. You at no time account for the second year leap a team takes with a new staff. How does that not factor? Wont factor in Mullen has a history of beating Ed O(LSU loss is by no means a sure thing with this series)? Then assuming Auburn..one of the biggest question marks in the SEC comes into the Swamp and no doubt wins...the hell? They magically change from an average football team because of a freshman QB now?
You cant go undefeated and not make the SEC title btw...that made no sense.
This post was edited on 8/21/19 at 6:59 am
Posted on 8/21/19 at 7:04 am to Gatorbait2008
quote:
and second years are almost never worse than first years for coaches(good ones which Mullen is)
You realize a team can be improved yet not improve on their record, right? To much UF hype is based on beating Michigan...a team who gave up 69 points the game before.
fwiw the odds of 8-4 are infinitely higher than the odds of UF exceeding 10 wins. And thats not "UGA wants a regression" shite. That's how I see it
Posted on 8/21/19 at 7:04 am to Gatorbait2008
quote:
You cant go undefeated and not make the SEC title btw...that made no sense.
I don't know exactly why you took it that way. This is what I said:
How many teams have lost the SECCG and gone to the playoff?
The only way you are going to do that is to go undefeated in the regular seaosn. I have no idea why you expect to. Hope? Sure. I get that. But expect? Heck, I don't even expect that and I have a lot more reason to.
I'll answer the question. Zero teams have lost the SECCG and gone to the playoff.
The only way it could conceivably happen is to be undefeated going to Atlanta. Do you really expect to have a decent chance of doing that? How many SEC teams ranked outside of the top 5 preseason have made the playoff?
One. And I'll go ahead and say your team this year will be nowhere as good as that team was. And your road to Atlanta is much more difficult.
This post was edited on 8/21/19 at 7:10 am
Posted on 8/21/19 at 7:05 am to koreandawg
In 2006 uf made the bcs title with zero depth. They had 5 ol who had only 17 combined starts, a converted wr starting at corner, another corner was a grad transfer from Utah who was too slow supposedly, they had no rb, no safety depth, no lb depth.
They won because of great coaching, some luck, 5 solid dl guys, and no key injuries.
They won because of great coaching, some luck, 5 solid dl guys, and no key injuries.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 7:07 am to Gatorbait2008
quote:
Our ceiling is the playoffs
cmon man
Posted on 8/21/19 at 7:09 am to slayerxing
quote:
In 2006 uf made the bcs title with zero depth. They had 5 ol who had only 17 combined starts, a converted wr starting at corner, another corner was a grad transfer from Utah who was too slow supposedly, they had no rb, no safety depth, no lb depth.
They won because of great coaching, some luck, 5 solid dl guys, and no key injuries.
And QB play. You may believe so, but I don't think your current QB is on par with Leak/RZ-short yardage Tebow.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 7:14 am to WorkinDawg
UF is not improved if we lose to USCe and Auburn.
Thread is nonsense. It's clear you just hope UF is bad.
Perfect example of how it can happen is 2012. If a playoff was active then, UF was in it despite losing to Georgia.
That is what I said could happen. Miss the SECCG but still be in the playoff hunt because it was one loss.
Will we go 11-1? Not highly likely, but not impossible. Mullen is a better coach than Ed O and frequently outsmarts Arenda. Auburn is unknown. Usce and Missouri have less talent so Mullen just has to not let either game fall apart.
Claiming no possibility of 11-1 is absurd. UF has a very good team. Best skill position group in the East. Best starting secondary in the East. Best coaching staff overall in the East(Georgia certainly has the best recruiters). Returning QB who you can reasonably assume improvement from based on Mullens history.
Yea...we can win the East. We can survive with 1 loss too, and if to Georgia possibly sneak in to the playoffs with our SOS.
You are greatly underestimating the improvement this team should make under its second year with Mullen. Considering it improved 6 wins last year...you think he would earn a bit more respect towards this season.
Thread is nonsense. It's clear you just hope UF is bad.
Perfect example of how it can happen is 2012. If a playoff was active then, UF was in it despite losing to Georgia.
That is what I said could happen. Miss the SECCG but still be in the playoff hunt because it was one loss.
Will we go 11-1? Not highly likely, but not impossible. Mullen is a better coach than Ed O and frequently outsmarts Arenda. Auburn is unknown. Usce and Missouri have less talent so Mullen just has to not let either game fall apart.
Claiming no possibility of 11-1 is absurd. UF has a very good team. Best skill position group in the East. Best starting secondary in the East. Best coaching staff overall in the East(Georgia certainly has the best recruiters). Returning QB who you can reasonably assume improvement from based on Mullens history.
Yea...we can win the East. We can survive with 1 loss too, and if to Georgia possibly sneak in to the playoffs with our SOS.
You are greatly underestimating the improvement this team should make under its second year with Mullen. Considering it improved 6 wins last year...you think he would earn a bit more respect towards this season.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 7:16 am to Sandwich
Ceiling is playoffs. Didnt say we are going..but to say it isnt possible is absurd. Of course it's possible. Every top ten team has a playoff ceiling. Doesnt mean everyone will make it, but no one would be shocked if they did.
Posted on 8/21/19 at 7:19 am to Gatorbait2008
quote:
Thread is nonsense. It's clear you just hope UF is bad.
You should lay off the caffine.
And I didn't say UF had no shot at 11-1; simply stated that 8-4 is much more likely.
But in my heart, I know UF has not shot at 11-1
This post was edited on 8/21/19 at 7:21 am
Posted on 8/21/19 at 7:30 am to Sandwich
quote:
cmon man
I know that is silly. UF's ceiling is the title. Glad we agree.
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