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Certain statistics and how they correlate to winning in the SEC (since 2008)
Posted on 7/29/15 at 8:33 pm
Posted on 7/29/15 at 8:33 pm
Teams with a 1,000-yard rusher averaged the following wins per season
2008 - 2014 average and standard deviation: 9.0 wins, 0.5 wins
2008 - 2014 effective range: 8.5 to 9.5 wins for a team that has a 1,000-yard rusher
Teams with a 3,000-yard passer averaged the following wins per season
2008 - 2014 average and standard deviation: 9.1 wins, 1.2 wins
2008 - 2014 effective range: 7.9 - 10.3 wins for a team that has a 3,000-yard passer
Teams that average scoring more than 35.0 points per game
2008 - 2014 average and standard deviation: 11.0 wins, 1.2 wins
2008 - 2014 effective range: 9.8 - 12.2 wins for a team that averages 35.0 points per game
Teams that allow less than 17.5 points per game
2008 - 2014 average and standard deviation: 10.8 wins, 1.4 wins
2008 - 2014 effective range: 9.4 - 12.2 wins for a team that allows less than 17.5 points per game
Teams that have a +10 turnover margin
2008 - 2014 average and standard deviation: 11.0 wins, 1.8 wins
2008 - 2014 effective range: 9.2 - 12.8 wins for a team that has a turnover margin of +10 or greater
Teams that score a TD 68.0% in the redzone
2008 - 2014 average and standard deviation: 10.3 wins, 1.7 wins
2008 - 2014 effective range: 8.6 - 12.0 wins for a team that scores a touchdown in the redzone at least 68.0% of the time
Teams that sack the quarterback at least 35.0 times per season
2008 - 2014 average and standard deviation: 10.5 wins, 1.6 wins
2008 - 2014 effective range: 8.9 - 12.1 wins for a team that sacks the quarterback at least 35.0 times per season
Just felt like being a little stat nerd and using my Excel skills before I lost them (because I don't use them much in tProfession).
Enjoy
If y'all select a few statistics, I can create a few more ranges since I'm bored.
2008 - 2014 average and standard deviation: 9.0 wins, 0.5 wins
2008 - 2014 effective range: 8.5 to 9.5 wins for a team that has a 1,000-yard rusher
Teams with a 3,000-yard passer averaged the following wins per season
2008 - 2014 average and standard deviation: 9.1 wins, 1.2 wins
2008 - 2014 effective range: 7.9 - 10.3 wins for a team that has a 3,000-yard passer
Teams that average scoring more than 35.0 points per game
2008 - 2014 average and standard deviation: 11.0 wins, 1.2 wins
2008 - 2014 effective range: 9.8 - 12.2 wins for a team that averages 35.0 points per game
Teams that allow less than 17.5 points per game
2008 - 2014 average and standard deviation: 10.8 wins, 1.4 wins
2008 - 2014 effective range: 9.4 - 12.2 wins for a team that allows less than 17.5 points per game
Teams that have a +10 turnover margin
2008 - 2014 average and standard deviation: 11.0 wins, 1.8 wins
2008 - 2014 effective range: 9.2 - 12.8 wins for a team that has a turnover margin of +10 or greater
Teams that score a TD 68.0% in the redzone
2008 - 2014 average and standard deviation: 10.3 wins, 1.7 wins
2008 - 2014 effective range: 8.6 - 12.0 wins for a team that scores a touchdown in the redzone at least 68.0% of the time
Teams that sack the quarterback at least 35.0 times per season
2008 - 2014 average and standard deviation: 10.5 wins, 1.6 wins
2008 - 2014 effective range: 8.9 - 12.1 wins for a team that sacks the quarterback at least 35.0 times per season
Just felt like being a little stat nerd and using my Excel skills before I lost them (because I don't use them much in tProfession).
Enjoy
If y'all select a few statistics, I can create a few more ranges since I'm bored.
10
Posted on 7/29/15 at 9:22 pm to Tornado Alley
See, this is what we pay you for... I'd still like to see your Destructive Defense stay at work
Posted on 7/29/15 at 10:00 pm to WhistlinDixie15
Dude I can't find the formula. I saved it on a Weir Hall computer (one of the ones I didn't think they wiped every evening), but I lost it.
What are the chances you saved it or bookmarked it?
I'm trying to find it.
What are the chances you saved it or bookmarked it?
I'm trying to find it.
Posted on 7/29/15 at 10:42 pm to Tornado Alley
I mean.....if your really board just go ahead and break it down as to how this translates to each team 
Posted on 7/30/15 at 12:07 am to Tornado Alley
Let's see: (number of wins in parentheses)
1,000 yard rusher - 2012 (11)
3,000 yard passer - 2012 (11), 2013 (9)
Over 35 points per game - 2012 (11), 2013 (9), 2014 (8)
Fewer than 17.5 points per game allowed - N/A
+10 turnover margin - N/A
68.0% redzone TD or above - 2012 (11), 2013 (9), 2014 (8)
35 or more sacks in a season - 2014 (8)
1,000 yard rusher - 2012 (11)
3,000 yard passer - 2012 (11), 2013 (9)
Over 35 points per game - 2012 (11), 2013 (9), 2014 (8)
Fewer than 17.5 points per game allowed - N/A
+10 turnover margin - N/A
68.0% redzone TD or above - 2012 (11), 2013 (9), 2014 (8)
35 or more sacks in a season - 2014 (8)
Posted on 7/30/15 at 12:10 am to Tornado Alley
Mizzou is ranked to low...
Posted on 7/30/15 at 6:37 am to Tornado Alley
Anyone want me to do a specific statistic?
It needs to be one that has at least one team meet its criteria each season.
I thought about 1,000-yard receiver, but that's too easy. Sacks allowed also depends a lot on the offensive scheme a team runs.
It needs to be one that has at least one team meet its criteria each season.
I thought about 1,000-yard receiver, but that's too easy. Sacks allowed also depends a lot on the offensive scheme a team runs.
Posted on 7/30/15 at 7:01 am to Tornado Alley
quote:
Anyone want me to do a specific statistic?
Fantastic thread
How bout time of possession?
Posted on 7/30/15 at 7:17 am to dcbl
The team that outrushes its opponents wins those games an average of 89%...thats not SEC...thats all college football in division 1.
What you want is for your team to be able to run the ball and stop the run...period! Throwing the ball all over the place may be entertaining...but doesnt win games. Thats why A&M hasnt broken through.
Spurrier in his fun n gun days at UF still had Errict Rhett , and Fred Taylor to run sprint draws to keep defenses honest.
You dont need super QBs to win championships. Name the Ohio St qb when OSU won the NC in 2002? Or qb at Univ of New Jawsey@Coral Gables when they were killing it? Ken Dorsey never impersonated Johnny Unitas, but he knew how to throw 5 yd screens to Willie Magahee. Who was that Nebraska qb who won Heisman? He couldnt throw a pass to save his life.
Just remember the 89% rule...better hope your team out rushes the other team or pray for 11% and that is usually because the other team turned the ball over too much. Coaches will tell you that running the ball (and protecting it) is key to winning.
What you want is for your team to be able to run the ball and stop the run...period! Throwing the ball all over the place may be entertaining...but doesnt win games. Thats why A&M hasnt broken through.
Spurrier in his fun n gun days at UF still had Errict Rhett , and Fred Taylor to run sprint draws to keep defenses honest.
You dont need super QBs to win championships. Name the Ohio St qb when OSU won the NC in 2002? Or qb at Univ of New Jawsey@Coral Gables when they were killing it? Ken Dorsey never impersonated Johnny Unitas, but he knew how to throw 5 yd screens to Willie Magahee. Who was that Nebraska qb who won Heisman? He couldnt throw a pass to save his life.
Just remember the 89% rule...better hope your team out rushes the other team or pray for 11% and that is usually because the other team turned the ball over too much. Coaches will tell you that running the ball (and protecting it) is key to winning.
Posted on 7/30/15 at 7:50 am to dcbl
Will calculate TOP once my boss shows up to work and unlocks the door.
Posted on 7/30/15 at 7:58 am to Tornado Alley
good work. I'd love to see yards per play/yards allowed per play. That seems to be a Vegas darling come CFB season.
Posted on 7/30/15 at 7:59 am to UAtide11
Will update again once the boss shows up.
At least I have my Belvita breakfast biscuits and coffee already.
At least I have my Belvita breakfast biscuits and coffee already.
Posted on 7/30/15 at 8:15 am to Tornado Alley
Assuming the distributions are normal, you should be going ±3 standard deviations to construct a 99% confidence interval.
Other than that ... pretty good.
Other than that ... pretty good.
Posted on 7/30/15 at 8:32 am to reel_gator8
quote:
reel_gator8
we got an Aggie that has 5 pages on how TOP ain't that big of a deal...
Posted on 7/30/15 at 8:33 am to UAtide11
Time of possession of 31:00 or greater
Average: 10.2 wins
Standard deviation: 1.6 wins
Effective range: 8.6 to 11.8 wins for a team that averages a TOP of 31:00 or greater
Average: 10.2 wins
Standard deviation: 1.6 wins
Effective range: 8.6 to 11.8 wins for a team that averages a TOP of 31:00 or greater
Posted on 7/30/15 at 8:44 am to iceman5
Yes I have normal distributions brah.
Posted on 7/30/15 at 8:49 am to Tornado Alley
FG Kicker - 80% or above accuracy
Posted on 7/30/15 at 8:54 am to Eric Nies Grind Time
A single kicker or total team? Count PATs too?
Posted on 7/30/15 at 8:57 am to Tornado Alley
Team. No PAT's.
Posted on 7/30/15 at 9:09 am to Eric Nies Grind Time
shite I just got busy.
Some fellow stat nerd needs to jump in.
Some fellow stat nerd needs to jump in.
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