re: A statistics nerd on Reddit plugged all 128 teams into a computer model

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There is a reason why the BCS was thrown in the trash as quickly as it was and the Playoff already showed the games need to be played on the field since the title game last year based on dumb computer models would have been FSU vs Alabama.

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You're an idiot.

Last season the final regular season computer composite rankings had the following:

1. Alabama
2. Oregon
3. TCU
4. Ohio St.

HUMANS stuck FSU into playoffs, and both had Ohio St as the last in.

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I'm sure your "betting edge" helped you when Stanford was a 41 point underdog to USCw and Stanford won.

How many millions of dollars did you lose on that bet since your model would have given you a confidence factor or 99.999999999999999999999999999999999999 percent?

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You seem to have little grasp of betting theory.

When you make money line bets you bet based on value.

If my system says Stanford has a 5% chance of winning, yet the ML number says they have a 2% chance of winning, you play Stanford because there is a 3% value on Stanford.

Making money line bets simply by picking winners is how you lose money. You take the money lines, convert them to a percentage, and compare it to your own percentage. If you feel like there is value on one side, you play it. Now betting a +5000, you will lose most of those bets even when there is value. But the idea is that if you make a bunch of +5000 bets when you feel the money line should be +4500, over the long run you will profit.

If a team is a +41 dog and you think they should be +35, you play the +41 not because you think they will cover but because you perceive there to be 6 points of value on the dog. Wagering by who you think covers is how you lose money, wagering by value is how you win money. My system is my attempt to find value, not pick winners or predict results.

It's no different than counting cards. Even with counting cards you can still lose multiple hands in a row and have a losing night at the table. But in the long run your counting will raise the player edge enough to beat the house.

Betting is about the long run, not the short run.

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Since you use old data and are using Hoke coached players for Michigan, can you let me know how much improved Harbaugh coached players are going to be for the Utah game?

You know, an entire new S&C staff, entire new coaching environment, new systems, and entire new coaching staff.

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Have an objective way to measure that?

For every coach that has an immediate impact you have coaches that do not have one.

Nick Saban didn't light the world on fire his first year at Alabama.

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You are an idiot. It was talked about all over the place that the title game would have been Bama vs FSU if the BCS was still used.

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And you want to know why? Because the BCS was heavily skewed to use the HUMAN polls over the computers.

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Not surprised your model failed last season.

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If going 53% against the spread is failing I want to fail every season. And that 53% is from picking all 730+ games. Out of the games I selected as personal bets, I went 69-50(57.9%). If that is failing, I hope I fail and fail hard.

Since you like to use old data, just plug in his Stanford numbers for the Utah game and let us know how that game is going to go so I know it if is worth watching.

Thanks.

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It is about the money you won or lost you idiot. Based on his results he would have been in the red big time since his betting habbits would have been mentally changed in his head before week 9....and once you get to week 9, you pretty much already know who the good teams are and who the bad teams are.

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Here is the deal... I don't bet on every game my system puts out. I select games from my system that I feel are good bets. I look for indicators, trends, that allow me to identify a profitable side.

I only make about 6-8 plays a week.

nubfan ITT:

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Since you like to use old data, just plug in his Stanford numbers for the Utah game and let us know how that game is going to go so I know it if is worth watching.

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Should I plug in Iowa's 2014 offensive numbers since Jake Rudock is Michigan's QB as well?

You have zero grasp on statistical theory.

Educate yourself: LINK