re: The Relaxation Chamber: Limited Severe Risk MS/AL/GA/TN

and there it is:

BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED
TORNADO WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE MEMPHIS TN
618 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN MEMPHIS HAS ISSUED A

* TORNADO WARNING FOR...
EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PANOLA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
NORTH CENTRAL QUITMAN COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHWESTERN TATE COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...
TUNICA COUNTY IN NORTHWEST MISSISSIPPI...

* UNTIL 700 PM CDT

* AT 618 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM PRODUCING A TORNADO NEAR DUNDEE...OR 11 MILES
SOUTHEAST OF HELENA...MOVING NORTHEAST AT 25 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IN THE WARNING INCLUDE BUT ARE NOT LIMITED TO RURAL AREAS
OF EXTREME NORTHWESTERN PANOLA...NORTH CENTRAL QUITMAN...
SOUTHWESTERN TATE AND TUNICA COUNTIES.

THIS WARNING ALSO INCLUDES AREAS NEAR HORSESHOE LAKE.

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BIRMINGHAM AL
633 PM CDT SUN APR 27 2014

.UPDATE...
FOR 00Z AVIATION.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

CURRENT RADAR SHOWS AN AREA OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MOVING
ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA IN RESPONSE TO A SURFACE WARM FRONT THAT IS
MOVING TO NORTH. THE ATMOSPHERE OVER CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINS
MINIMALLY UNSTABLE...THEREFORE NOT ANTICIPATING A THREAT WITH THE
CURRENT ACTIVITY. GUSTY WINDS HAVE OCCURRED IN SOME OF THE TALLER
STORMS...HOWEVER THIS SHOULD REMAIN UNDER SEVERE LIMITS. THE
REMAINDER OF THIS DISCUSSION WILL FOCUS ON THE MULTIPLE WAVES OF
SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS THAT WILL AFFECT CENTRAL ALABAMA.

THINGS REMAIN ON THE WHOLE UNCHANGED FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. UPPER
LEVEL LOW OVER THE PLAINS WILL SLOWLY MOVE TO THE EAST OVER THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS. MEANWHILE AT THE SURFACE...THERE IS A DEEPENING
LOW...WITH COLD FRONT TRAILING TO THE SOUTH...AND A WARM FRONT
EXTENDING IN A WEST TO EAST ORIENTATION ACROSS THE OHIO RIVER
VALLEY. THIS PUTS CENTRAL ALABAMA IN THE WARM SECTOR OF THIS BROAD
SYSTEM...LEAVING THE ATMOSPHERE PRIME FOR MULTIPLE ROUNDS OF
CONVECTION...AS SHORTWAVES MOVE AROUND THE BASE OF THE TROUGH.

THE FIRST ROUND WILL COME MONDAY MORNING...AS CELLS DEVELOP WELL TO
OUR WEST AND CONVERGE INTO A LINE AS THEY MOVE EAST OF THE
MISSISSIPPI RIVER. AS PREVIOUSLY STATED...THESE STORMS WILL MOVE
AHEAD OF THE MAIN FORCING...AND WE SHOULD SEE A GENERAL WEAKENING AS
THE STORMS MOVE ACROSS CENTRAL ALABAMA. THE NORTHWEST COUNTIES OF
CENTRAL ALABAMA WILL SEE THE POTENTIAL FOR DAMAGING STRAIGHT LINE
WINDS AND HAIL INITIALLY...HOWEVER THIS THREAT WILL DIMINISH AS WE
MOVE THROUGH THE MORNING. BY THIS POINT...THE OVERALL SYNOPTIC
SYSTEM WILL HAVE MOVED VERY LITTLE...THEREFORE...OUR THREAT FOR
SEVERE WEATHER DOESN'T END HERE.

SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE AT THE SURFACE DURING THE DAY ON
MONDAY...ALLOWING SURFACE DEWPOINTS TO REACH INTO THE MID TO UPPER
60S BY THE AFTERNOON. MEANWHILE...THE LOW LEVEL JET WILL INTENSIFY
AND MOVE INTO THE AREA...AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH. ONE
THING THAT WILL BARE WATCHING IS THE DEVELOPMENT OF THUNDERSTORMS
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON. THE GENERAL TIMING FOR THIS SECOND WAVE
IS STILL BEGINNING AROUND THE 6 PM TIMEFRAME...HOWEVER IN AN
UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE...WITH CAPES UPWARDS OF 2000 J/KG AND THE JET
ALLOWING 0-6 KM SHEAR TO APPROACH 50KTS...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS MAY
DEVELOP DURING THE AFTERNOON IF THERE IS A TRIGGER. CURRENTLY WE
EXPECT THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP ACROSS MISSISSIPPI AND THEN MOVE
INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA. THIS WILL CONTINUE THROUGH THE EVENING AND
OVERNIGHT HOURS. WITH PARAMETERS LIKE THIS...STILL THINKING THAT THE
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR STRONG TORNADOES...AS WELL AS DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS AND LARGE HAIL. THE MAIN AREA WILL BE GENERALLY ALONG AND
NORTH/WEST OF THE I 20 AND I 59 CORRIDOR.

THE EVOLUTION OF THE THIRD WAVE IS HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON HOW THINGS
EVOLVE WITH THE SECOND WAVE. GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT BY SUNRISE ON
TUESDAY...THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE MOVING INTO THE SOUTHEAST
COUNTIES...WITH SOME CLEARING ACROSS THE INTERSTATE 20 CORRIDOR AND
NORTH AS THE LOW LEVEL JET RACES OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.
MEANWHILE...ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS WILL DEVELOP ONCE AGAIN ACROSS
MISSISSIPPI AND BEING MOVING INTO THE WESTERN SECTIONS OF CENTRAL
ALABAMA DURING THE AFTERNOON ON TUESDAY. A SECOND LOW LEVEL JET WILL
DEVELOP AND MOVE INTO CENTRAL ALABAMA TUESDAY EVENING...AND
THEREFORE BULK SHEAR VALUES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SUFFICIENT TO
SUPPORT SUSTAINED UPDRAFTS. WITH CENTRAL ALABAMA REMAINING IN THE
WARM SECTOR OF SURFACE SYSTEM...INSTABILITY WILL ALSO BE RATHER
HIGH. THEREFORE...WE WILL SEE ANOTHER THREAT OF SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR TORNADOES...DAMAGING STRAIGHT
LINE WINDS...AND HAIL.

IF ALL OF THAT WEREN'T ENOUGH...STORM TOTAL QPF WILL APPROACH 5
INCHES ACROSS MUCH OF CENTRAL ALABAMA. WE HAVE SEEN OUR FAIR SHARE
OF RAIN OVER THE LAST FEW WEEKS...AND THE ANTECEDENT CONDITIONS WILL
PROVIDE A GREATER RISK FOR FLASH FLOODING. RIVER FLOODING IS ALSO
LIKELY. IT IS IMPORTANT TO KEEP IN MIND THE SIGNIFICANCE OF FLASH
FLOODING AND AS ALWAYS...TURN AROUND DON'T DROWN.

THE THREAT FINALLY LOOKS TO COME TO AN END BY WEDNESDAY
MORNING...WITH HIGH PRESSURE MOVING INTO THE REGION...AND MOSTLY DRY
CONDITIONS FOR THE EXTENDED.

73


&&

.AVIATION...
00Z TAF DISCUSSION.

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL FOR THE EVENING. IN WAKE OF PRECIP AND
WITH CONTINUED SOUTHERLY ADVECTION...EXPECT DEVELOPMENT OF
MVFR/POSSIBLE IFR CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT AND LASTING THROUGH 15 TO
18Z WITH IMPROVEMENT BY 18Z. WITH IMPROVEMENT COMES THE RISK OF
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND STORMS DEVELOPING WITH THE HEATING OF THE
DAY AND THE UNSTABLE AIRMASS IN PLACE SO INCLUDED VCTS FOR THE
NORTHERN TAF SITES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSER TO THE MOST UNSTABLE
AIRMASS.

Wmctv's (Memphis) radar suggest baseball sized hail north of marks on it's way towards Arklabutla

Damn

frick. Maumelle is where my bro and niece live.

its to the west on maumelle headed straight for them

This is going to do major damage

Even my uneducated arse can tell that's DEFINITLY a tornado northwest of little rock

VTI of 8.2