Mizzou - Arkansas State Preview

Here's the first pre-game analysis. Hope it generates some good discussion. Let me know what you think!

Arkansas State Red Wolves (2-2) @ Missouri Tigers (3-0)
Saturday, September 28, 2013
Memorial Stadium, Columbia, MO
6:30pm on ESPN3, CSS and local channels

Overview
So far this season, the Red Wolves, under their first-year coach Bryan Harsin, have defeated UAPB and Troy, while losing to Auburn and Memphis. This will be the 3rd meeting between the two teams. We last played ASU in 2005 at Arrowhead, where Mizzou won 44-17; we also defeated them at home 52-20 in 2004.

That said, this isn't the same ASU team we played back then. They have consecutive Sun Belt Chapionships in 2011 and 2012, and have made bowl games in 5 of the last 8 seasons.

Led by senior QB Adam Kennedy, the Red Wolves are averaging 30 points per game, and averaging 472 yards of total offense per game. This includes putting up 422 yards on Auburn. They are averaging 240 yards rushing and 187 yards passing per game, for 6.35 yards per play.

They are pretty efficient on red-zone offense, scoring 13 times on 15 attempts. They have converted 30 of 62 third downs, for a 48% conversion ratio.

Defensively, they give up an average of 440 yards per game, This breaks out to 188 on the ground and 252 passing. (This average is heavily skewed by the Troy game, where they gave up 504 passing yards.)

When the Red Wolves have the ball...
Adam Kennedy, their senior QB, is an effective leader, and distributes the ball well. Their best RB is David Oku, a senior who is looking to climb up the ASU record books this season with rushing touchdowns (currently 8th.) But Kennedy can be a threat in the rushing game himself, going for 88 yards in their loss to Auburn. Michael Gordon is also a threat, and both Oku and Gordon have receiving yards as well, like most of our RBs, and are also similar in size.

When the 6-5, 224 lb Kennedy chooses to throw the ball, his favorite targets this season have been Julian Jones, Allen Muse and R.J. Fleming. Their receivers (except for 6'4", 5th year senior Allen Muse) are smaller in stature than ours, and I believe Gaines and company could have a big day.

They have a good red zone offense, but our red zone defense is very solid too, and they may have more trouble scoring than they have had in previous games.

When we have the ball...
We must take care of the ball. ASU has forced a fumble in each game this season; they haven't recovered all of them, but they have an opportunistic streak that could be trouble if we aren't careful.

Players to watch on their defense include 6'2", 300 senior DL Ryan Carrethers, who is on both the Bednarik and Outland trophy watch lists and is NFL-caliber talent. He is on the pre-season All Sun-Belt first team, along with teammate 5'11", 225 junior LB Qushaun Lee. These two players have 28 and 32 tackles respectively, leading the team along with DB Chris Humes who has 29.

Still, they give away yards, both on the ground and through the air. Franklin and the Air Corp should have a big day, and if the ground game gets going, that could be big as well. We will be the best offense they've faced all season, and if we play like we're capable of playing, I wouldn't be surprised to see us put up 600 yards or more.

Final Thoughts and Prediction
We shouldn't overlook this game. This is a decent football team, and they should be well coached. Their first-year head coach, Bryan Harsin, is one of the youngest in the country at age 36. He was previously OC at Boise State and Texas, and is likely familiar with our offense and how it operates. They are very capable of putting up points themselves, and we can't look past this game. In addition, props to them for being willing to play 2 SEC teams in their non-con play. These guys haven't won the Sun Belt the past 2 years without being confident and fundamentally sound.

But, if we focus and treat this game as a last warm-up before we start conference play, we should take care of business. By the middle of the 3rd quarter, they will be tired, and we will put it away.

Final Score - Mizzou 49-ASU 17.