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Scouting Report. (Texas A&M, 10/10)

Posted on 10/5/20 at 1:37 am
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 10/5/20 at 1:37 am
Previous Week Opening:

Spread -17.5 | +17.5
Money Line -1,000 | +650
Over/Under 57

This week vs. A&M:

Spread -6.5 | +6.5
Money Line -240 | +200
Over/Under 57.5

Miscellaneous Notes: Texas A&M is a very strange team in general. From their campus, male cheerleaders, all the way down to how they play football every year. I have a bad feeling about the game, if I'm being honest.

Texas A&M Offense: Again, they seem to have this weird up and down existence. Against Vanderbilt, they had 372 yards and against Alabama they had 450, including 300 yards of passing. Against Vanderbilt, they managed to move the ball somewhat but had trouble scoring. This is a theme with them, since the only points they mustered up in the first half against Alabama were from a freak play (sideline tightrope) and a lucky tip that was intercepted and returned to the red zone.

Quarterback Kellen Mond (4/1, 507 yards, lots of fumbles, like five): The good news is that Kellen Mond is a one-read Quarterback through and through. Hilariously, I was watching the game and saw someone read the defense and I was about to change my notes until I noticed it was the backup.

Mond is an okay Quarterback throwing, a good runner and so of course, Jimbo uses him as a passer. He can't really read coverage, and is only waiting for his first receiver to come open and while there are a lot of drops...I think Mond is the reason for the drops. His passes aren't crisp, they're not where they should be more often than not.

I would be really worried about this game if Mond ran more often. He has 37 yards on 15 attempts for 2.5 yards a rush. For the record, Trask has 2.7 yards a rush, to illustrate how little I'm afraid of Mond running.

Offensive Line: Uh oh. They're above average, for sure. In both facets of rushing and passing, they are actually pretty good. The good news is that Mond will throw to his first read if he's open or not, so he...really wastes the talent around him on the offensive line. They will definitely be able to run against us, they are well coached. Hopefully we can jump out early and force them to pass.

Skill Positions: They're good as well, they have the players to make plays and are decent enough to give us a problem. No one is really "elite" outside of their TE (but not Pitts elite, don't get it twisted) but again, there's no one to really consistently deliver the ball.

-----

Texas A&M Defense: They are just flat out bad at stopping the pass. Alabama's Quarterback had time and they easily passed for 435 yards. However, their rush defense is actually very good. They were beat deep consistently, I think we will be able to pass against them pretty well. The big thing to note is that Vanderbilt (albeit without the yards to show) and Alabama both had very high completion percentages.

Defensive Line: Very good at rush defense, poor at getting to the Quarterback. They are decent, but again not great. (This is a trend with them.)

Linebackers: This is the second week in a row where linebackers are the worst position on the defense. These guys can't cover, they are bad in run support and don't tackle well. It's likely that we'll see a lot of Nickel and Dime defense this weekend.

Defensive Backs: Poor technique, severely blown assignments but they can at least tackle. Tons of catches over their heads, out of position, never looking for the ball...this might actually be the worst position on their defense. It is 100% a Big XII style defense.

-----

Conclusion: I think if we protect the ball, we will get lucky with Mond who is prone to turning it over. However, I think this is going to be a high scoring game. I edited a few things on the last report (but not the score) and guessed that we would win by 14 points.

This week, I think we win a shootout by 10. We go up by 17 late, they score a touchdown late and the game ends with us in the victory formation.

I hope. If we end up with the turnovers, we'll likely lose the game.
This post was edited on 10/6/20 at 7:10 pm
Posted by Gatorbait2008
Member since Aug 2015
22953 posts
Posted on 10/5/20 at 8:23 am to
The line at 7 worries be a bit, thought it would be around 10 to start. So maybe Vegas is seeing something. Still believe we score. This offense is very good not worried a bad secondary suddenly makes it look bad. Aggies back door cover and miss the onside kick.

Florida - 38
Aggies - 34
Posted by bigDgator
Dallas, TX
Member since Oct 2008
41133 posts
Posted on 10/5/20 at 1:40 pm to
I hate this game because I live in Texas and I will have to listen to A&M fans for half a decade if we lose.
Posted by olemc999
At a blackjack table
Member since Oct 2010
13256 posts
Posted on 10/5/20 at 1:45 pm to
quote:

The line at 7 worries be a bit, thought it would be around 10 to start.


It opened at 5.5 and already moved to 7.
Posted by bigDgator
Dallas, TX
Member since Oct 2008
41133 posts
Posted on 10/5/20 at 3:23 pm to
Vegas has it opening at 7 and moving down to 6.5
Posted by Gatorbait2008
Member since Aug 2015
22953 posts
Posted on 10/5/20 at 3:34 pm to
I saw 7 when I first looked but that means money moved early on us.

It feels like a trap in the gambling world...which is not good
Posted by olemc999
At a blackjack table
Member since Oct 2010
13256 posts
Posted on 10/5/20 at 4:59 pm to
Just reporting what I saw on the CBS Vegas Sportsline.
Posted by Gatorbait2008
Member since Aug 2015
22953 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 6:50 pm to
So I rewatched their games at work today. Slow day helped me out there.

I think we can beat them by more than what Vegas has it at now. Just seeing their flaws compared to strengths, this game I am actually pretty comfortable with.

Their secondary really is bad. Add in this is Trask homecoming? He will score. A lot.

They have very good run defense, but directly the opposite in terms of pass defense. Which is fine with me.

I originally think I said 38-34.

I'm going 45-31 now. Just seeing both teams, we look better. Less mistake prone. More disciplined penalty wise. Will be very similar to the other games. I do not actually believe they are much better than USCe or Ole Miss, despite recruit rankings.

I'm also including the idea that Trask will show out. Not really a metric to use there, but I would assume him playing in front of his family and friends will make him even more dangerous this weekend.
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 7:10 pm to
Vanderbilt and Alabama both moved the ball well, and really, passing they are just atrocious. We'll cut them up passing the ball, but they'll probably try to keep everything close to the LOS.
Posted by AlbinoGator
Member since Oct 2016
2091 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 7:46 pm to
If this is a LOS league like we all have consistently admitted then the A&M O-line should be able to push our D-line Around all game this is probably the worst defense as a whole that the Gators have had in a long time any big physical O-line is going to run it down our throat until we prove we can stop it.

aTm , tenner, uga, are all going to take it too our d-line hope our d can get better as the season goes along but right now I don't see it.

I really thought going into the season our D could and would be very good but everybody except for maybe Dexter and Cox has been a disappointment wilson and Elam have not played well Davis will hit someone but not a really good cover guy McWilliams should never the field unless we are up by 30 in the 4th Stewart who knows what is up with him and honestly as much as I have put down on Dean over the past 2 years he has come in and played very well Stiner is a good Blitzer and that is about it.but our D-line has not put alot of pressure on QB's either when you give a guy time back there they will start to find guys and Mond maybe aTm's leading rusher he will have opportunities to take off and go if corral can eat us up on the ground Mond Definitely will also they have to be able to get off the field on 3rd down giving up all these 3rd and longs have to put at a minimum or it is going to be a long day. Offensively Mullen just needs to let the offense do what it does throw the ball all over the field and let your guys make plays don't get cute and try to run Kyle up the middle he still does not protect the ball well when he gets hit. Our O-LINE has not improved as much as would have hoped either they are still good at pass blocking but still have 0 push at the LOS. Ido think the Gators win something like 41-33
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 8:33 pm to
Mond's rush average is less than Trask's, they just simply don't use him that way.

Mullen teams improve over the season, and have ever since he got here. I trust him until I don't.
Posted by Gatorbait2008
Member since Aug 2015
22953 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 9:26 pm to
I love hearing Mond will run this game..every game for Aggies.

I would be generally shocked if Jimbo makes Mond a mobile QB in the gameplan.

I'm crossing fingers we blitz a lot. Mond is terrible under pressure. We've recruited athletic LBers..when do we actually freaking use them :/
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 10/6/20 at 10:29 pm to
Mond also fumbled like four times against Vanderbilt.
Posted by Porter Osborne Jr
Member since Sep 2012
39966 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 9:08 am to
How are yall feeling the closer we get to game day?
Posted by StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Member since Sep 2013
21146 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:17 am to
I was worried when I wrote that above, the closer we get to gameday without any injury news (this is the first year where we've had multiple games with zero injuries to starters) I'm feeling pretty positive. Some players said that Campbell and Stewart will be back in full this week but I'll wait to see that.

Again, I'll just reiterate: I trust Mullen until I don't. I am really, really.

Really.

Reallllly.

No but reaaaaallllllyyyyy.

Hoping he's adjusting the defense. He said he was going to last press conference but I'll wait to see all of the pieces on the field before I commit any further to "feeling" one way or another.

In the end, their pass defense is garbage and Trask is a good if not great Quarterback with weapons all around him. Just outscore them.
Posted by BloodSweat&Beers
One Particular Harbor, Fl
Member since Jan 2012
9153 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 10:37 am to
I trust the offense to win the game. So far it has been the best since Tebow with a healthy Percy. UF had 4 WRs make NFL teams and 3 on active rosters but this years group maybe be better when you add in the improvement of Pitts and Toney. Top 2 RBs are playing very well. Not only running well but also great in pass blocking and catching. OL is much improved.

Special teams look to be the best we have had under Mullen. Toney is very dangerous as a punt returner. UF has the best kicker in the SEC and the punter is doing well in limited number of punts.

Defense is offensive.

Positives, Miller is a more athletic David Reese. Tackling machine. Jaydon Hill has been a bright spot at CB, look for him to get more snaps moving forward.
Posted by Gatorbait2008
Member since Aug 2015
22953 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 1:37 pm to
Pierce has been a good back for us so far. Malik seems better catching out of the back field then running up the middle. He may end up being the feature back this week with how good Aggies are up the middle.
Posted by boXerrumble
Member since Sep 2011
52279 posts
Posted on 10/7/20 at 11:38 pm to
Offense is gonna be tested a little bit. Texas A&M's secondary has talent and won't be that bad for 2 straight weeks.

Defense will be on the field a ton, but make a play late I think.

I got UF 34 A&M 27.
Posted by atlgator
Jacksonville, Atlanta, Gainesville
Member since Aug 2014
5520 posts
Posted on 10/8/20 at 6:25 am to
I see a similar game but I think the offense clicks consistently throughout. We go for more big plays and hit on a few.

I think the defense is shaky again but they get enough stops for us to win comfortably.

I got us 45-28
Posted by Gatorbait2008
Member since Aug 2015
22953 posts
Posted on 10/8/20 at 2:49 pm to
quote:


Offense is gonna be tested a little bit. Texas A&M's secondary has talent and won't be that bad for 2 straight weeks.


Disagree. South Carolina has better corners than Aggies hands down. Aggies have real issues in the secondary when you watch the Bama game. They leverage poorly off the line in press. They take terrible angles. They do not have elite athletes to keep up with speedy receivers. It's basically a secondary full off Stiner's.

If Trask keeps up how he has been the first two weeks, Aggies defense is in for a long day.

Biggest key is our freaking defense getting off the field.
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