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Auburn Breakdown. (Since this week vs. Towson should be boring.)
Posted on 9/25/19 at 12:52 am
Posted on 9/25/19 at 12:52 am
I've been going over some game footage of Auburn and here are some thoughts that I've had:
Quarterback: My favorite position to talk about. True Freshman Bo Nix
Strength: Surprisingly, his legs have only accounted for about 117 yards through 4 games, but he averages 4.2 yards a carry.
Weakness: Passing. If they need to pass to win, I feel sorry for them. Nix has a very strange side-arm release and very poor footwork -- which is why a lot of his passes seem to sail on him. He gets "happy feet" in the pocket and I think if a team can adequately pressure him he will have turnovers.
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Player on offense that I fear from Auburn: Sophomore Anthony Schwartz, WR. If he seems familiar it's because we were recruiting him hard to Florida and he instead chose Auburn. We will need to shut him down if we have any chance to win this game.
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Defense: 9 sacks, 30 hurries. (They had zero sacks against Tulane.)
Florida Defense: 20 - 33
Strength: Supposedly the defensive line. Kent State makes up 5 of their sacks, so in the three games vs. Tulane, A&M and Oregon they only have 4 sacks on the year. Their ends are good and consistently get pressure but a lot of their pressure is ginned up by blitzing.
Weakness: The middle of the field. Kellen Mond torched them for 335 yards and many of his passes were completed over the middle. Their DBs don't seem very physical or particularly well-coached -- they are physical in the sense of pass-interference level contact, but not in the sense of being hard hitters from what I've seen.
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Reasonable Take: This game is likely going to come down to the offenses moving the ball, and I think it will likely end up 35 - 28 with either team coming away with a win.
Spicy Redhot Take: Since Trask is fairly good at hitting receivers over the middle of the field, this is his first P5 300+ yard passing game. He is a better pure passer than Mond, and will likely be able to distribute the ball around making easy completions, keeping our defense off of the field and we run Auburn out of the stadium as long as Trask doesn't turn the ball over multiple times and ruin his confidence.
Quarterback: My favorite position to talk about. True Freshman Bo Nix
Strength: Surprisingly, his legs have only accounted for about 117 yards through 4 games, but he averages 4.2 yards a carry.
Weakness: Passing. If they need to pass to win, I feel sorry for them. Nix has a very strange side-arm release and very poor footwork -- which is why a lot of his passes seem to sail on him. He gets "happy feet" in the pocket and I think if a team can adequately pressure him he will have turnovers.
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Player on offense that I fear from Auburn: Sophomore Anthony Schwartz, WR. If he seems familiar it's because we were recruiting him hard to Florida and he instead chose Auburn. We will need to shut him down if we have any chance to win this game.
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Defense: 9 sacks, 30 hurries. (They had zero sacks against Tulane.)
Florida Defense: 20 - 33
Strength: Supposedly the defensive line. Kent State makes up 5 of their sacks, so in the three games vs. Tulane, A&M and Oregon they only have 4 sacks on the year. Their ends are good and consistently get pressure but a lot of their pressure is ginned up by blitzing.
Weakness: The middle of the field. Kellen Mond torched them for 335 yards and many of his passes were completed over the middle. Their DBs don't seem very physical or particularly well-coached -- they are physical in the sense of pass-interference level contact, but not in the sense of being hard hitters from what I've seen.
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Reasonable Take: This game is likely going to come down to the offenses moving the ball, and I think it will likely end up 35 - 28 with either team coming away with a win.
Spicy Redhot Take: Since Trask is fairly good at hitting receivers over the middle of the field, this is his first P5 300+ yard passing game. He is a better pure passer than Mond, and will likely be able to distribute the ball around making easy completions, keeping our defense off of the field and we run Auburn out of the stadium as long as Trask doesn't turn the ball over multiple times and ruin his confidence.
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Posted on 9/25/19 at 1:28 am to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
I agree with some of this. I don't know 300 yds passing unless we get behind 2 scores and lets hope that doesn't happen.
Of course running the ball is going to extremely difficult against AU...but Mullen will scheme some plays to try and get yardage. I expect a hard nose slobber knocker game and special teams/home crowd are important. I think we will use short passes a lot until we see how wll AU is covering our WRs...if Kitts is getting free, then we will use him a lot.
Our defense can keep them out of the end zone enough times to frustrate them and Malzahn. Schwartz will be used on jet sweeps...although effective a few times against A&M...I feel we have much more speed on defense than A&M. Average defense.
Of course running the ball is going to extremely difficult against AU...but Mullen will scheme some plays to try and get yardage. I expect a hard nose slobber knocker game and special teams/home crowd are important. I think we will use short passes a lot until we see how wll AU is covering our WRs...if Kitts is getting free, then we will use him a lot.
Our defense can keep them out of the end zone enough times to frustrate them and Malzahn. Schwartz will be used on jet sweeps...although effective a few times against A&M...I feel we have much more speed on defense than A&M. Average defense.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 1:32 am to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
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Posted on 9/25/19 at 1:36 am to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
Their DL is legit, but no so much in the secondary. I'll put our WR Corps against anyone so If Trask can stay clean, we cruise imo.
Our Defense is flying around, making plays. If we're healthy I think we shut em down. Especially with Burney back, I feel he can be a huge factor if he shadows Nix
Our Defense is flying around, making plays. If we're healthy I think we shut em down. Especially with Burney back, I feel he can be a huge factor if he shadows Nix
Posted on 9/25/19 at 2:01 am to real_gator8
quote:
I agree with some of this. I don't know 300 yds passing unless we get behind 2 scores and lets hope that doesn't happen.
That's why it's a spicy redhot take.
That being said: Their run defense is legitimate. Our run offense is terrible. If we're going to run an air-raid or gimmick offense in general, it will be vs. Auburn.
quote:
Our defense can keep them out of the end zone enough times to frustrate them and Malzahn. Schwartz will be used on jet sweeps...although effective a few times against A&M...I feel we have much more speed on defense than A&M. Average defense.
I won't doubt Schwartz until we stop him. I think we have the capacity to, but if Auburn tries to run it between the tackles we will likely end up winning big.
Strangely enough, our weak point is our passing defense.
We're only allowing 2.9 yards a rush so far, and giving up 61% completion rate.
In this game, we're actually kind of built to beat Auburn in the sense that their DL is very good against the run but their secondary is awful vs. the pass. They've given up 5 passing touchdowns to 2 rushing touchdowns and gave up 909 yards through the air so far. We have given up 772.
Our offense will likely be the best passing threat they've seen all year, and they seem to be struggling to stop it. Our defense is likely the best they've seen all year against the run, and running is about all they can do.
I really like our chances outside of chaotic plays.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 2:10 am to dbuchanon
quote:
Their DL is legit, but no so much in the secondary. I'll put our WR Corps against anyone so If Trask can stay clean, we cruise imo.
I really believe we will win one on one against their DBs who have looked pretty pedestrian so far. I'm surprised that their statistics for the DL are so low, too, but then realized that a lot of it is because they are very strong on the internal line.
We will not win with a power running game against them, that is 100% certain. We will need jet-sweeps, reverses, options, everything. They like to blitz a lot of players, too. It always seems they have 6 or 7 guys rushing when they do blitz.
Screens, misdirections = us handling business easy.
quote:
If we're healthy I think we shut em down. Especially with Burney back, I feel he can be a huge factor if he shadows Nix
Nix is good for a True Freshman, but he has a lot of fundamental problems in his game. Like I said: Delivery and footwork are just terrible. He's just very fortunate that the running game is so strong that no one has ever forced him to actually have to use his arm to do very much outside of a drive or two.
We will probably get him rattled, and I don't think he handles the Road very well.
He only had 106 yards of passing against A&M which is a major "yikes".
Similarly:
Nix: 56 - 104 for 645 yards. 6 Touchdowns. (5 Throwing, 1 Rushing)
Trask: 33 - 46 for 459 yards. 4 Touchdowns (3 Throwing, 1 Rushing).
The difference is that Trask has really only played 4* (Emory played a lot of snaps last game) Quarters vs. the 16 from Nix.
This post was edited on 9/25/19 at 2:13 am
Posted on 9/25/19 at 2:26 am to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
quote:
They like to blitz a lot of players, too. It always seems they have 6 or 7 guys rushing when they do blitz.
I think that favors us if we can pick em up, Trask gets the ball out pretty quick.
I may have to watch an Auburn game this weekend, I believe they play MSST after our game.
This post was edited on 9/25/19 at 2:27 am
Posted on 9/25/19 at 3:19 am to dbuchanon
That's the game I'll be tuning in to. I really don't think Auburn is as good as I thought they were. I was really expecting way more out of their defensive line -- but of course, ours has just looked astounding.
We had more sacks against Miami than Auburn has had in their entire season.
Even against Tennessee, we didn't have Zuniga.
Another thing we're not even thinking about is if Toney comes back. Toney and Trask could have huge games together.
We had more sacks against Miami than Auburn has had in their entire season.
Even against Tennessee, we didn't have Zuniga.
Another thing we're not even thinking about is if Toney comes back. Toney and Trask could have huge games together.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 3:42 am to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
quote:
Toney and Trask could have huge games together.
Chances are, Toney doesn't drop that Copeland pass. I like Copeland but theres a big difference between KT and everyone else ability wise
This post was edited on 9/25/19 at 3:47 am
Posted on 9/25/19 at 8:12 am to dbuchanon
quote:
Chances are, Toney doesn't drop that Copeland pass. I like Copeland but theres a big difference between KT and everyone else ability wise
IDK about that... Mullen has always said Toney needs to be more consistent.
That said - if Toney is back for Auburn, whoooooo boy.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 2:32 pm to real_gator8
Running QBs kind of give us issues and that is my worry. I think the three keys for our defense are simple.
1. Hold the line and make them be creative to move the ball.
2. Stay disciplined. They will try to make us over commit a few times and they can really punish us. Treat Schwartz like Toney. Never lose site of him.
3. Dont try to sack Nix as much as keep him in the pocket. Our ends cant be too aggressive. Force him to throw in the pocket he will not beat our defense. Simple sounding...but not quite that easy lol
Their defense will stuff our run game. Their front seven is not going to be pushed off the ball. Simple as that. This is going to be which coach can call the best game. Both teams will shut down the traditional run game. We have to get a few more razzle dazzle plays to work to win.
Add in we are a better passing team. I do feel pretty good about the game but with our line it could end up being one of those "reality check" games too where we just cant do anything and get run out of the building too.
Either way. 17-13 Florida. Les Go.
1. Hold the line and make them be creative to move the ball.
2. Stay disciplined. They will try to make us over commit a few times and they can really punish us. Treat Schwartz like Toney. Never lose site of him.
3. Dont try to sack Nix as much as keep him in the pocket. Our ends cant be too aggressive. Force him to throw in the pocket he will not beat our defense. Simple sounding...but not quite that easy lol
Their defense will stuff our run game. Their front seven is not going to be pushed off the ball. Simple as that. This is going to be which coach can call the best game. Both teams will shut down the traditional run game. We have to get a few more razzle dazzle plays to work to win.
Add in we are a better passing team. I do feel pretty good about the game but with our line it could end up being one of those "reality check" games too where we just cant do anything and get run out of the building too.
Either way. 17-13 Florida. Les Go.
This post was edited on 9/25/19 at 2:35 pm
Posted on 9/25/19 at 2:43 pm to Gatorbait2008
I say have Burney spy Nix. Safety speed with Backer size
Posted on 9/25/19 at 3:13 pm to dbuchanon
I wouldn't under value AUs secondary....I have watched very closely the Oregon and A&M game. AU returns their entire secondary from last year....not saying they are the best in the SEC...but damn sure aren't chopped liver either. A&M had to throw a lot because they were behind, so that stat is meaningless.
Their defensive front seven gets all the hype...but they also return everyone of their OL starters from last year and I expect them to lean on us a lot. Baby Nix doesn't have to win games...Whitlow is serviceable and can get the hard to make 3rd downs.
This is why we MUST get more big plays from special teams. I understand having a dependable punt returner, but damn I think we are about dead last in the SEC in return yardage on punts. Thank God we have a punter with a howitzer as a leg. We have to keep them backed up and make them drive the long field where mistakes can happen. AU replaced their kicker and punter from last year.
Lastly, home field is huge and we need the Swamp rocking and hopefully keep AU from getting a lead which makes the crowd noise simmer down some. Conversely, we have to make big plays and keep the crowd noise up like a 747.
Oh, BTW Towson is a pretty damn good team...don't discount them with their offense...sure we will win but it will be hard keeping them out of the end zone.
Their defensive front seven gets all the hype...but they also return everyone of their OL starters from last year and I expect them to lean on us a lot. Baby Nix doesn't have to win games...Whitlow is serviceable and can get the hard to make 3rd downs.
This is why we MUST get more big plays from special teams. I understand having a dependable punt returner, but damn I think we are about dead last in the SEC in return yardage on punts. Thank God we have a punter with a howitzer as a leg. We have to keep them backed up and make them drive the long field where mistakes can happen. AU replaced their kicker and punter from last year.
Lastly, home field is huge and we need the Swamp rocking and hopefully keep AU from getting a lead which makes the crowd noise simmer down some. Conversely, we have to make big plays and keep the crowd noise up like a 747.
Oh, BTW Towson is a pretty damn good team...don't discount them with their offense...sure we will win but it will be hard keeping them out of the end zone.
This post was edited on 9/25/19 at 3:25 pm
Posted on 9/25/19 at 4:28 pm to Gatorbait2008
I'd rather David be spying than Burney. Burney is better in coverage. Reese is the most intelligent defender on the field. He may not have the speed but he will take the right angle and is a sure tackler
Posted on 9/25/19 at 6:19 pm to Gatorbait2008
Nix could outrun Reese imo. So there'd be no point to it
Posted on 9/25/19 at 6:19 pm to Gatorbait2008
quote:
Running QBs kind of give us issues and that is my worry. I think the three keys for our defense are simple.
1. Hold the line and make them be creative to move the ball.
2. Stay disciplined. They will try to make us over commit a few times and they can really punish us. Treat Schwartz like Toney. Never lose site of him.
3. Dont try to sack Nix as much as keep him in the pocket. Our ends cant be too aggressive. Force him to throw in the pocket he will not beat our defense. Simple sounding...but not quite that easy lol
Solid analysis
The more I look at it the more UF can/should win this game. Mullen is going to have to find a way to keep them honest with a run game though.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 7:11 pm to real_gator8
You guys are a lot more confident then I am . I think it will come down to QB play . Auburn has the more talented QB with a little more experience. To me it’s scary that we can’t run block and Auburn will know that we are going to have to pass the ball to move the chains . To me the Auburn game is as tough as Georgia and LSU . If we can win this game then we could win them all.
I expect Auburn to be about a 4 point favorite.
I expect Auburn to be about a 4 point favorite.
This post was edited on 9/25/19 at 7:12 pm
Posted on 9/25/19 at 7:22 pm to tjv305
quote:
Auburn has the more talented QB
Uh, wut??
I'll watch the State/AU game to get a better idea who the kid is, but his stats are very underwhelming right now.
This post was edited on 9/25/19 at 7:25 pm
Posted on 9/25/19 at 7:42 pm to dbuchanon
quote:
Uh, wut?? I'll watch the State/AU game to get a better idea who the kid is, but his stats are very underwhelming right now.
So you think Trask a guy that hasn’t started since his first year of high school and who very few schools were interested in is more talented then Nix? Nix is 5 star guy that could have went any where . Nix May turn out to be a bust but his natural talent is much better then Trask.
Posted on 9/25/19 at 7:48 pm to tjv305
quote:
Nix is 5 star guy
I'm just sayin as of right now, the kid is barely over 50% completions and the only game he went over 200 yards passing was against the mighty Tulane.
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