re: State of Gamecock Recruiting for 2019

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No, every time ive puttogether a class on class calculator on 247 with yhe likely names we end up as as high as 10th low as 14th based on the past 3 class rrankings.

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... and he's got us finishing anywhere from 9th to 13th which, when I do what everyone else does and start naming classes we are sure to finish behind - seems like it would be the lower end.

So when I start approaching it from that angle I look at it this way, in no particular order:

Bama
UGA
Ohio State
Texas
SoCal
Oklahoma
Notre Dame
Penn State
Clemson

So that's nine. One of those would have to drop for us to hit #9.

Then comes the next level.

Auburn
Florida
FSU
Miami
LSU
Nebraska (this year because of the new coach)
Michigan
Tennessee
A&M

That's nine more and we would have to finish above five of them for us to finish 13th.

Now, finding five from that second group is far more doable but still not easy by any means.

Who would be the five below us from the second group?

Nebraska maybe?
Tennessee?
Florida perhaps?
Miami?

I mean it is really going to be tough finishing anywhere between let's say 9-14 even. Which puts signing a Top Ten class into perspective, especially doing it consistently for a few consecutive years.

Thankfully, I believe, if it can be done here Boom and staff are the guys to do it but still ... it's gonna be really really tough just finishing 13th or above this season.

Yet his metric is accurate, so accurate, he's nailed it better than anyone else for a long time. I mean he works a circuit doing this and there's word Vegas may pick him up ... several of the big casinos are supposed to be after him because his predictions translate to odds so well on the books.

Let's look at it this way.

If you're a Bama fan and given 5:3 odds on you bringing in a #1 class this year .... would you take it? $500 bet would net you a $300.00 win. That's a helluva return on your $500 bet on a program that has signed six of the last ten #1 classes.

Or, as a SC fan would you bet us to show at 11-12-13 at say 5:1 odds? Or place at 5:2 on 12-13 or 13-14?

Remember, his metric takes everything into account including plugging holes and position needs and skill ratings vs lineman ratings and player rankings within given radiuses and all of that.

Here's the thing though. mUSChamp and company have already demonstrated that they could give a fat baby's butt about individual rankings or class rankings ... so to me they are not a safe bet when you break it down Vegas style. They may sign a two star unknown kid and develop him or see something in him no one else sees. They may take a kid who is a three star who gets bumped to a four star when other offers pour in ... but they'll never see some of the bumps Bama and Ohio State and Notre Dame, et al, get when they sign certain players. Hell, I've seen it happen. Steve Spurrier and I talked about it on the golf course one time when we had a kid decommit from us in 2005 at the last minute I think it was, sign with UF at the last minute ... and he was bumped from a three star to a four star on signing day. Happens all the time. Bobby Burton once admitted to me when he was drunk that they do it for the high-subscribing team sites to generate more premium subscriptions .... he admitted flat out doing it for Texas and Notre Dame and Florida who had the three biggest sites in that network back then.

So how do you predict that?

What I was told this morning is that the way you predict that is by predicting a class will be so strong as to overcome the blue blood effect by signing undeniably more talented players ... and that Boom will accomplish that with this next class.

I guess here's what I'm trying to communicate.

I've been into this recruiting thing for the better part of forty years. Used every possible medium back in the day to try and figure it out. It turned into big business with the advent of the Internet ... took until about 1996 for it to finally kick in and by 2004 is was hitting stride in terms of money/profitability but not in terms of accuracy when it came to the rankings. Yet now we know that in these past ten years or so that's been refined and the higher the class the far greater chance for success in the P5 conferences.

Never, not ever, have we had a chance to break through the glass ceiling we've been living under like we do with this next class. Something is up. I mean Boom is a fricking recruiting machine and all that but I also think the timing is just right with the new buildings and all the academic support and Marcus coming on board ... it all begins to fall in place with this next class.

Now all we have to try to do is figure out who it's gonna be.

I'd think big though. I'd be very optimistic. Something is up.

So given that I know little to nothing about specific players these days until they visit and feed back trickles down from above ... who am I missing? We've got what, nine committed? We're going to sign 25 minimum. That's at least 16 more ... are they going to be that good? Wouldn't they all have to be like 4 and 5 star players for us to have a realistic shot at finishing between 9-13?

This is kind of like baseball. We have to finish one game above .500 in league play the rest of the season to have a shot at the post season ... everyone tracks that, right? 12 games, four series, we need to finish 7-5 and we finish the regular season in conference at 16-14. Still got a shot if we finish 6-6 because of their RPI and a chance in Hoover to bump it above .500.

So same thing for this recruiting class.

If we had to make a list of twenty that would fill all the necessary holes (remembering we have to sign four LBs in this class) ... who would those twenty be and what 16 of them do we have the best chance to sign?

Because since breakfast this morning it's been driving me crazy. I can't make it come-out right on paper yet when you say 14th Mike ... that's pretty damn close and makes me think it could happen.

If it does that also means we finish above some in that second tier of nine who are gonna be pissed.

Do we legit have a shot at signing two 5*s this class and the rest (of the remaining sixteen) 4*s?