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re: Stat Model - #1 Bama vs #3 OSU (Title) (7 PM CST) (Jan 11)
Posted on 1/3/21 at 11:56 pm to TideSaint
Posted on 1/3/21 at 11:56 pm to TideSaint
Honestly, I think the B1G skews the hell out of these numbers.
They basically played nobody in conference, but this doesn't know how to take that into account, and then their one big game they massacred a team with great stats by way more than their averages.
The fact that with all that we STILL have a winning margin......feel pretty good.
My general feeling is Ohio State has to bring their Clemson performance. If they do, it's a toss up, maybe even advantage them.
If Ohio State brings any other version of themselves from 2019, we're gonna win the ballgame.
We've basically brought the same consistent performance every game for the last 2 months, so I think it's pretty clear what we'll put on the field.
We know from past history with them that discounting a recent high water mark performance is not a good idea, though, so I'm working under the assumption we get their Clemson game.
They basically played nobody in conference, but this doesn't know how to take that into account, and then their one big game they massacred a team with great stats by way more than their averages.
The fact that with all that we STILL have a winning margin......feel pretty good.
My general feeling is Ohio State has to bring their Clemson performance. If they do, it's a toss up, maybe even advantage them.
If Ohio State brings any other version of themselves from 2019, we're gonna win the ballgame.
We've basically brought the same consistent performance every game for the last 2 months, so I think it's pretty clear what we'll put on the field.
We know from past history with them that discounting a recent high water mark performance is not a good idea, though, so I'm working under the assumption we get their Clemson game.
This post was edited on 1/4/21 at 12:01 am
1
Posted on 1/4/21 at 12:15 am to SummerOfGeorge
I think the keys to victory are rather simple, as I told you the other night.
Isolate Surtain on Olave. He's really their only receiving option downfield.
Focus coverage inside on their TEs. They feasted on Clemson.
Maintain gap integrity to stop the run. This may finally be the game for DJ Dale to shine.
Don't let Fields scramble. If that means rushing 3 and dropping 8, so be it. Put the athletic young bucks in and let them pin their ears back.
On offense, don't get cute. Let Mac do what he does best. Najee can gash them. Don't turn the ball over.
Isolate Surtain on Olave. He's really their only receiving option downfield.
Focus coverage inside on their TEs. They feasted on Clemson.
Maintain gap integrity to stop the run. This may finally be the game for DJ Dale to shine.
Don't let Fields scramble. If that means rushing 3 and dropping 8, so be it. Put the athletic young bucks in and let them pin their ears back.
On offense, don't get cute. Let Mac do what he does best. Najee can gash them. Don't turn the ball over.
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