re: So if Georgia wins, how confident are we that both Georgia and LSU are in the playoffs?

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LSU won't be and shouldn't be higher in the pecking order than a 1-loss Big12 champ.

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LSU's one loss would be to a playoff team. Assuming an OU win today, OU's loss would be to an unrated KSU team. Plus, OU will have defeated a team it already beat. Who has the better resume?
If Baylor wins look at their results. Three wins by 3 points or less. An additional win with a margin of 6 and .... an 8 point win vs Rice.... Rice is one of the shittiest programs on earth.
That said, I think the committee will leave out LSU with a loss today.