re: 92% of time the team that lost first game wins rematch when 2 ranked teams play each other

Bama fans keep pointing to 2017 as reason that they'll get in. You got lucky that there was a 2-loss Big 10 champ, a 2-loss SEC West champ, and a 2-loss Pac 12 champ. It was the perfect combination to let a one loss Alabama in. If that happens again then maybe you'll get a shot. But if you are sitting at home while a 1 loss Oklahoma and a 1 loss Oregon wins conference championships, that won't look good in the eyes of the committee.