re: Vegas has Bama 10.5 point favorite over lsu

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If you want to cite games from last year

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You were -16 at LSU.

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Bama was -14. Why are you exaggerating?

2018 Alabama @ LSU Betting Line

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So you would’ve been -26 at Alabana.

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Are you just making stuff up? Oddsmakers give a standard home field advantage in college of around 2.5 points. That home field advantage may flex up or down around a point (1.5 to 3.5) depending on the teams/matchups. Rarely would you ever see a 4 point home field advantage given by odds makers, much less 5 each way.

So based on the actual line of -14, Alabama may have been around -20 at Alabama last year, not -26. In fact even -20 may be giving too much credit to the respective home field advantages when talking about the Alabama/LSU game and odd makes do often get that granular so, if anything, the hypothetical @Alabama spread could have been even less than -20.

Some research for you if you are interested:

Alabama and LSU homefield advantages actually below average based on historical records

Standard college homefield is 2.5 points, data shows LSU and Bama a little lower

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Compare that to a projected line of -10 this year. Y’all must be way worse or LSU is way better.

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-10.5 is the projected line in the OP. And the fact is odds makers knew (and were proven right and then some) that LSU's offense last year was a horrible match up against Alabama's defense. This year LSU's offense is in fact way better and Alabama's defense is a little worse so the odds makers expect LSU to be able score this time.

Personally I think this looks like a one possession game right now and I'm glad it is in Tuscaloosa for whatever that means.