re: #17 a 3.5 point favorite over #8. What’s up with that?

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Teams that deserve a point-spread advantage are the teams that consistently cover on their home field. Conversely, if a team never covers the number at home, then it should get fewer than 2.5 points. Some even get less than a point. While ESPN did a decent job of making PAE, it is solely based on points scored above the FPI power rankings, and not the Vegas closing number. With that in mind, my home-field advantage is weighted on an against-the-spread number from a three- and 10-year sample size. While the three-year home-field ATS record could represent changes in recruiting classes, coaching or stadium dynamics, a 10-year sample gives enough iterations to find the mean of home-field advantage.

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Here is a formula that attempts to project how many points are baked in to HFA per game based on comparing home, road and neutral spreads over the past 10 seasons for each SEC team

Arkansas 3.24
Mississippi Sate 3.15
South Carolina 2.58
Ole Miss 2.57
Auburn: 2.56
Vanderbilt 2.49
LSU 2.38
Alabama 2.30
Missouri 2.14
Georgia: 1.89
Florida 1.85
Texas A&M 1.81
Tennessee 1.32
Kentucky 1.25

LINK