Inside the race for third .... or better in the SEC (Post full of stats)

Georgia can wrap up the East with a win over South Carolina this weekend and another Kentucky loss. Alabama is just Alabama. But after these two teams, there is an exciting race for third place between LSU, Auburn and Mississippi State.

They've all played each other, and are 1-1 against each other. State smacked around LSU. Auburn slaughtered State, and LSU and Auburn did the same to each other for a half, with LSU winning the aggregate.

Auburn has a respectable non-conference loss to Clemson, LSU slipped up against Troy, and Mississippi State also has a loss to playoff contender Georgia, so all three teams find themselves at 6-2.

Interestingly enough, they each have a shot at Alabama in the final four weeks of the season. As of right now, the chances of beating Alabama according to FPI look like this:

Auburn 31.2%
State 19%
LSU 6.9%

Only the LSU game is at home for the Tide.

Auburn still has Georgia on the schedule as well, the toughest remaining schedule of the three. LSU is next, then State has the easiest road to finish out the season.

LSU control its own destiny. Auburn will if Alabama beats LSU. If they win the rest of their games, including Alabama, they will find themselves in Atlanta for the SEC Championship Game. State would have to beat Alabama and have some help from either Auburn or LSU, and possibly Georgia or Texas A&M, as they would lose a three way tiebreaker that included Auburn in any way. If it gets to a four way tie, MSU would win because Georgia and Kentucky's combined SEC record will be better than the other three (Mama played Tennessee, Auburn played Mizzou and LSU plays Tennessee - all winless at this point)

State has a 13.3% percent chance of winning out. Auburn 6.1%. FPI gives LSU a 0.6% chance of winning out. However, State's second loss being an SEC loss kills them in the conference race, as they only have a 0.2% chance of winning the SEC at this point. LSU isn't much better at 0.7%, but Auburn is at 7.1%.

Chances of winning SEC with four weeks remaining in season:

Alabama 55.3%
Georgia 36.4%
Auburn 7.1%
LSU 0.7%
South Carolina 0.3%
MSU 0.2%
Kentucky 0.1%

My personal opinion is despite what the AP and Coaches poll say today, the CFP Poll that will be released on Tuesday night will have Auburn, LSU and MSU all ranked between 15-20. The computers have them ranked in the AU-MSU-LSU order, but I could see any order.