Started By
Message
re: I'm curious how the Ark will react if we go 9-3 but the final loss is a blowout to LSU?
Posted on 10/18/17 at 3:44 pm to Texas Gentleman
Posted on 10/18/17 at 3:44 pm to Texas Gentleman
I'm not sold on Sumlin at all, but this is where your argument becomes silly:
"regressed back to his mean of 8 wins a year"
It ain't rocket surgery. There's no natural law that says he must regress to his previous mean (which is higher than 8, by the way). All we have to go with is how he's doing right now. I have no idea how the rest of the season will play out. A&M may go 5-0, or they may go 1-4. In both of those cases the choices are clear and not all that interesting as far as his employment goes. Where it gets interesting is if A&M goes 3-2. We'll have a lot of folks calling for his head and just as many telling you to STFU. I'm honestly not sure which group I'd be in.
"regressed back to his mean of 8 wins a year"
It ain't rocket surgery. There's no natural law that says he must regress to his previous mean (which is higher than 8, by the way). All we have to go with is how he's doing right now. I have no idea how the rest of the season will play out. A&M may go 5-0, or they may go 1-4. In both of those cases the choices are clear and not all that interesting as far as his employment goes. Where it gets interesting is if A&M goes 3-2. We'll have a lot of folks calling for his head and just as many telling you to STFU. I'm honestly not sure which group I'd be in.
3
Posted on 10/18/17 at 4:54 pm to finestfirst79
quote:
if A&M goes 3-2
That will mean losses to LSU and Auburn
I know exactly where I'll stand, time for a new coach
Posted on 10/18/17 at 5:22 pm to finestfirst79
quote:
There's no natural law that says he must regress to his previous mean (which is higher than 8, by the way).
It is? Let's examine this:
Houston: 8, 10, 5, 12. Mean = 8.75
A&M: 11, 9, 8, 8, 8. Mean = 8.8
Now let's remove bowl games from that equation.
Sumlin's regular season mean is:
Houston - 8.5 (7,5,10,12)
Texas A&M - 8.2 (10,8,7,8,8)
Looks like he's correct.
Posted on 10/18/17 at 6:15 pm to finestfirst79
quote:
There's no natural law that says he must regress to his previous mean
Correct. But you realize what the point of statistics is right?
All we are doing is speculating on how he would perform if he stays here longer than this year. And all I’m doing is stating my opinion based on what I’ve seen after 5.5 years of him running our program.
Page 1 of 1
Latest Texas A&M News
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News