If Bama wins, our only loss is to a dominant Bama. A Bama loss makes it harder to sneak into the playoff. We need Bama at 13-0 if we don't win the West.

If LSU wins it opens up a possibility of winning the west without hoping for a 1 in a million tie breaker involving USC, UGA, and Vandy winning big and UK losing big. At that point we just have to win and hope Auburn beats Bama.

This post was edited on 11/3/16 at 4:38 pm

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Posted by NanosTacoRun

Member since Jun 2015

3332 posts

Posted on 11/3/16 at 4:29 pm to AggieDub14

ColleyvilleAg on Texags did a pretty thorough breakdown. Basically only 1 scenario exists that produces a true 3-way tie, resulting in a coinflip. Need 16 games to go as follows:

1 -Texas A&M W over Miss St
2 - Texas A&M W over Ole Miss
3 - Texas A&M W over LSU
4- Auburn W over Vandy
5 - Auburn W over Georgia
6 - Auburn W over Alabama
7 - Alabama W over LSU
8 - Alabama W over Miss St.
9 - South Carolina W over Missouri
10 - South Carolina W over Florida
11 - Georgia W over Kentucky
12 - Tennessee W over Kentucky
13 - Mizzou W over Tenn
14 - Vandy W over Tenn
15 - Vandy W over Mizzou
16 - Vandy W over Ole Miss

A&M, Bama and Auburn all end up 7-1, and everyone's SECE opponents end up 7-9.

Every other scenario resulting in a 3 way tie, Bama wins the tiebreaker.

This post was edited on 11/3/16 at 4:31 pm

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Posted by Tridentds

Sugar Land

Member since Aug 2011

23343 posts

Posted on 11/3/16 at 4:36 pm to AggieDub14

Odds are stacked against us but Bama winning out is easily our best pathway. All kinds of shite has to go our way but that seems more probable than Bama losing twice.

If Bama were to lose to LSU... umm... then LSU will really be on a roll when the arrive in a few weeks. I don't think I like the idea of that.

We need Bama to win out and we need to win out. This way there is at least a small chance we get in somehow.

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Posted by AggieDub14

Oil Baron

Member since Oct 2015

14976 posts

Posted on 11/3/16 at 4:37 pm to NanosTacoRun

These are the 6 games in that scenario I am particularly worried about. Included Aggy v LSU because 5-0.

1 -Texas A&M W over Miss St
2 - Texas A&M W over Ole Miss
3 - Texas A&M W over LSU
4- Auburn W over Vandy
5 - Auburn W over Georgia
6 - Auburn W over Alabama
7 - Alabama W over LSU
8 - Alabama W over Miss St.
9 - South Carolina W over Missouri
10 - South Carolina W over Florida
11 - Georgia W over Kentucky
12 - Tennessee W over Kentucky
13 - Mizzou W over Tenn
14 - Vandy W over Tenn
15 - Vandy W over Mizzou
16 - Vandy W over Ole Miss

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Posted by AggieDub14

Oil Baron

Member since Oct 2015

14976 posts

Posted on 11/3/16 at 4:39 pm to AggieDub14

1 -Texas A&M W over Miss St
2 - Texas A&M W over Ole Miss
3 - Texas A&M W over LSU
4. LSU W over Alabama
5. Auburn W over Alabama

I like this one a lot more. No coin flips and only 3 I would bold here.

This post was edited on 11/3/16 at 4:39 pm

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