The best estimate for OM's penalties I have seen thus far....

Posted on 7/21/16 at 3:52 pm

Posted by DistrictDawg

Starkvegas

Member since Oct 2014

236 posts

Posted on 7/21/16 at 3:52 pm

Stolen from Elitedawgs, I know the source is biased, but the estimations are not. They are very well thought out and fair as well as supported by facts from previous NCAA cases.

" Originally Posted by DeviousDawg
When you really look into the NOA and compare it to previous NCAA investigations, Ole Miss's self imposed sanctions are a joke. The actual sanctions should atleast double the self imposed sanctions.

When looking through the NOA, it really breaks into 4 parts, the Tunsil stuff (allegations 1-4), the Kiffin stuff (alegations 5-7), the Walter Hughes stuff (allegation and the ACT stuff (allegations 10-13). Allegation 9 was a BS level III violation involving recruiting videos. The fairest way to estimate OM's sanctions would be to treat each of the 4 parts as separate investigations and add the results from each.

Part 1: Tunsil

We can compare Tunsil's allegations to our own with Redmond. We gave Redmond a $2500 discount on a vehicle. We got 4 schollies over 2 years and 2 year probation, Mirando recieved a 1 year show cause. It should also be considered that we self reported all of this and cooperately fully with the NCAA who accepted our self imposed sanctions

Ole Miss is accused of giving Tunsil $7,495 worth of free car loans in allegation #1. Allegation #2 is really just an extension of #1, it says that after Tunsil was caught using free cars, he did it again, and Ole Miss failed to monitor whether he was continuing to do it. This isn't good for them because while #2 is only a level II violation, it will most certainly make #1 become an aggravated Level I violation. Allegation #3 is a booster giving Miller $800. #4 involves free lodging and stuff for tunsils family worth $2,253. So that's a total of $10,548 worth of inducements to Tunsil and fam as well as a failure to monitor.

When compared to our 4 schollies and 2 years of probation, OM's allegations 1-4 should be worth atleast double but probably triple what we got for Redmonds stuff.

Conservative guess for allegations 1-4:

8-12 scholarships
3 years probation
1 year bowl ban

Part 2: Kiffin

These allegations aren't too serious. There were 2 level III allegations, one for talking to a recruit during spring evaluation period, one for letting a recruit stay at his house. There was also one level II allegation which involved Kiffin setting up lodging, transportation and meals for family friends of a recruit, the monitary total of the inducements was worth $1027.

Conservative guess for allegation 5-7:

1-2 scholarships
possible 1 year show cause for Kiffin but most likely a suspension of some sort.

Part 3: Walter Hughes

This one could go so many different ways. There are 16 sub violations in the Level I allegation #8. All involve OM disassociated booster Walter Hughes and recruiting inducements. Three assistant coaches (Harris, Kiffin, and Matt Luke) and Hugh Freeze are listed in this allegation. All are said to have been contacted by Hughes while knowingly committing NCAA recruiting violations. So throw ignorance on OM's part of the window for this violation, which is never good.

The total monitary value for allegation #8 was $2,250. It involved 4 current coaches, 3 recruits and one booster. If we got 4 scholarships for $2,500 worth of inducements to Redmond, involving 1 coach, 1 recruit and 1 booster with exemplary cooperation on our part, then you would have to put the lowest amount of scholarships docked for this allegation at 4.

Conservative guess for allegation 8:

4-8 scholarships
1-2 years probation
2 year show cause for Maurice Harris

Part 4: ACT scandal

Let's compare this to ULL's case, they are actually very similar. ULL had 4 level I violations, so did OM. The first one for each schools was about fixing ACT scores. ULL's involved one coach and 6 recruits. OM's involved 3 coaches and 3 recruits, one of which is still on staff in Derrick Nix, who put the recruits families in contact with Saunders and the Crager(sp?) lady to recieve free lodging, transportation and meals, similiar to Mirando's case. The second allegations for both schools involved improper inducements to recruits. ULL's was worth $6,500 while OM's was worth $1650. The last 2 allegations for both schools involved coaches lying to the NCAA during investigations, just Saunders for ULL; Saunders and Vaughn for OM.

The NCAA stated that ULL recieved the lowest possible penalties for their violations(11 scholarships over 3 years and 2 years of probation) because the University was unaware of Saunders actions and acted swiftly to fire him and self report as well as cooperate fully with the NCAA. Well, Ole Miss can't really say the same because Nix is STILL ON STAFF. There's a reason Ole Miss is fighting Nix's involvement, but they aren't going to win it. All of this leads me to believe that, if ULL recieved the lowest possible penalties that OM would atleast have to get 11 schollies for the ACT allegations.

Conservative guess for allegations 10-13:

11-14 scholarships
1-2 year show cause for Nix
8 year show cause for Vaughn
1 year bowl ban

Adding all 4 parts together for a final estimate:

24-36 scholarships
4 years of probation
2 year bowl ban
Show Causes for: Nix and Harris
Suspensions for: Kiffin, Freeze, and Matt Luke

Seems harsh, but when you really break it down into it's components I think that is a well educated and fair estimate."

Long story short: Ole Miss is fricked. Even if a second NOA with the Draft Night stuff never surfaces, these penalties alone will cripple Ole Miss's program for at least a decade. I hope the Sugar Bowl win was worth it!