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re: Cruz once again exceeds expectations
Posted on 4/6/16 at 11:51 am to Gradual_Stroke
Posted on 4/6/16 at 11:51 am to Gradual_Stroke
quote:
Trump curb stomps that ugly Canadian weasel Cruz and you neocons can't fricking stand it
I was about to say: "Exceeds expectations? Isn't he gettin' the frick beaten out of him by a dude with no political history whatsoever?"
Posted on 4/6/16 at 1:02 pm to StrawsDrawnAtRandom
quote:
I was about to say: "Exceeds expectations? Isn't he gettin' the frick beaten out of him by a dude with no political history whatsoever?"
No, not really... evidenced by his 13.2% margin of victory last night in Wisconsin.
Trump has the most loyal block of support. Roughly 35% of the GOP is completely loyal to Trump and cannot be swayed. Cruz' block of loyal support has probably been closer to 15-20%... while Kasich, Rubio, Carson, etc. had loyal support amounting to 5-15% of the GOP as well.
That is why Trump is leading in the delegate count, and why he will probably enter the convention with the most delegates.
However, Trump is also the most despised by the GOP electorate. While Cruz' block of loyal, passionate support is half the size of Trump's, he's absolutely wiping the floor with Trump when it comes to picking up the support of other candidates as they drop out. He is proving to be the preferred option of the two candidates.... over and over again.
The proof is in the numbers. The combined share of the popular vote in the first 4 early contests (Iowa, New Hampshire, South Carolina, and Nevada) looked like this:
32.7%- Trump
20.7%- Cruz
8.4%- Kasich
38.2%- Others
So when Bush, Carson, Rubio and all the candidates before them dropped out, where did their support go? Well check out the combined share of the popular vote of the most recent three contests (Arizona, Utah, and Wisconsin):
43.4%- Cruz
36.7%- Trump
13.2%- Kasich
So if you compare the most recent three contests (All post-Rubio) with the first four contests, this is how much of the vote share each of the 3 remaining candidates has captured:
+22.7%: Cruz
+4.8%: Kasich
+4.0%: Trump
Trump has barely benefited at all from Bush, Carson, Rubio, etc. all getting out of the race. Evidence suggests that nearly 3/4 of the support that was out there for candidates has shifted towards Cruz.... and Kasich has actually claimed more of it than Trump!!
This is a huge problem for Trump. He may be able to get 40%... 45%... or maybe even 50% (for the first time) of the vote in New York and New Jersey, but evidence suggests he simply can't beat Cruz head-to-head outside of the Northeast and the Deep South. That's going to be a problem for him.
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