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re: Football programs on the decline
Posted on 2/16/16 at 2:13 pm to Aggie Dynasty
Posted on 2/16/16 at 2:13 pm to Aggie Dynasty
None.
LSU
LSU is maintaining right now at a very high level... especially considering their programs history. They've always been a great program. But right now they are winning at a more consistent rate than probably every before.
Under Miles, LSU is tied for having the 2nd most wins of any power program since 2005 with 112 wins (behind only Oregon with 115 and tied with Oklahoma).
LSU has compiled 16 consecutive seasons of 8 wins or more. LSU has never compiled more than 16 consecutive winning seasons in their history... let alone 8+ win seasons.
While many will claim LSU is "declining" due to their lack of championships, I disagree. LSU's SEC Championships have always come in spurts with long separations:
1935, 1936...
1958, 1961...
1970...
1986, 1988...
2001, 2002, 2007, 2011
Gaps of more than 5 years are separated. While next season will mark 5 years since LSU last won an SEC Title, I don't think its fair to assume they are leaving the top tier of the conference anytime soon.
Miles just landed arguably the highest rated recruiting class in LSU history.
I think LSU will maintain its current level (which is arguably the Golden Age of LSU football) if not even improve a bit over the next few seasons.
Tennessee
How can they decline any further than they've already been for the past decade? It is presumably impossible for a program with the tradition and fan support of Tennessee to sink any deeper than they did from about 2006 through 2014. While the 2015 certainly was nothing to celebrate in the grand scheme of things, it was without a doubt a major step in the right direction.
If anything, Tennessee has hit bottom and will improve as a program in the coming years.
Georgia
Georgia is winning at a rate never before seen in UGA history. While the last 5 years have been void of any major championships, we've won 10, 12, 8, 10, & 10 games respectfully.
Only 7 power programs have more wins during the past 5 years than Georgia.
Georgia, like LSU, seems to win championships in spurts with long periods of separation in between. Years in which Georgia won the SEC:
1942, 1946, 1948...
1959...
1966, 1968...
1976, 1980, 1981, 1982...
2002, 2005...
Georgia is due for another title. I don't think anyone is expecting a long-term decline in the near future considering we just fired our coach. If anything, Georgia fans expect the titles to come in proportion with the wins over the next few years.
Texas A&M
While many might say the Aggie program is on the decline since Johnny Manziel, I think that 2012 season should be looked at as an outlier in terms of Aggie football during the past two decades.
If you go back to 1995, which was the year Texas A&M started the decline at the end of the RC Slocumb era, here are how many times that A&M has finished with specific win totals during a season:
4 wins- 2x
5 wins- 1x
6 wins- 3x
7 wins- 4x
8 wins- 4x
9 wins- 5x
10 wins- never
11 wins- 2x
Sure, Texas A&M reached a peak for the post-Slocumb era with Johnny Football in 2012... but it was really just a one-year thing. It was an outlier for having one of the greatest players to play the college game in the history of the sport.
The truth is, Texas A&M's back-to-back 8-5 seasons in 2014 and 2015 are right in line with where the Aggie program has been the past 21 years.
Considering their fertile recruiting ground and their major facility upgrades, Texas A&M has not come close to reaching their full potential as a program. While I expect the 2016 season to be a bit rough, I do not see Texas A&M as a program in decline.
I see Texas A&M as a team in need of a quarterback, and a program on the verge of competing for championships every year. It will take some time, but everyone knows Texas A&M is a sleeping giant. The combination of Texas A&M and the SEC is lethal. It may take a few more years, but they will certainly improve as a program once they adjust the the SEC.
LSU
LSU is maintaining right now at a very high level... especially considering their programs history. They've always been a great program. But right now they are winning at a more consistent rate than probably every before.
Under Miles, LSU is tied for having the 2nd most wins of any power program since 2005 with 112 wins (behind only Oregon with 115 and tied with Oklahoma).
LSU has compiled 16 consecutive seasons of 8 wins or more. LSU has never compiled more than 16 consecutive winning seasons in their history... let alone 8+ win seasons.
While many will claim LSU is "declining" due to their lack of championships, I disagree. LSU's SEC Championships have always come in spurts with long separations:
1935, 1936...
1958, 1961...
1970...
1986, 1988...
2001, 2002, 2007, 2011
Gaps of more than 5 years are separated. While next season will mark 5 years since LSU last won an SEC Title, I don't think its fair to assume they are leaving the top tier of the conference anytime soon.
Miles just landed arguably the highest rated recruiting class in LSU history.
I think LSU will maintain its current level (which is arguably the Golden Age of LSU football) if not even improve a bit over the next few seasons.
Tennessee
How can they decline any further than they've already been for the past decade? It is presumably impossible for a program with the tradition and fan support of Tennessee to sink any deeper than they did from about 2006 through 2014. While the 2015 certainly was nothing to celebrate in the grand scheme of things, it was without a doubt a major step in the right direction.
If anything, Tennessee has hit bottom and will improve as a program in the coming years.
Georgia
Georgia is winning at a rate never before seen in UGA history. While the last 5 years have been void of any major championships, we've won 10, 12, 8, 10, & 10 games respectfully.
Only 7 power programs have more wins during the past 5 years than Georgia.
Georgia, like LSU, seems to win championships in spurts with long periods of separation in between. Years in which Georgia won the SEC:
1942, 1946, 1948...
1959...
1966, 1968...
1976, 1980, 1981, 1982...
2002, 2005...
Georgia is due for another title. I don't think anyone is expecting a long-term decline in the near future considering we just fired our coach. If anything, Georgia fans expect the titles to come in proportion with the wins over the next few years.
Texas A&M
While many might say the Aggie program is on the decline since Johnny Manziel, I think that 2012 season should be looked at as an outlier in terms of Aggie football during the past two decades.
If you go back to 1995, which was the year Texas A&M started the decline at the end of the RC Slocumb era, here are how many times that A&M has finished with specific win totals during a season:
4 wins- 2x
5 wins- 1x
6 wins- 3x
7 wins- 4x
8 wins- 4x
9 wins- 5x
10 wins- never
11 wins- 2x
Sure, Texas A&M reached a peak for the post-Slocumb era with Johnny Football in 2012... but it was really just a one-year thing. It was an outlier for having one of the greatest players to play the college game in the history of the sport.
The truth is, Texas A&M's back-to-back 8-5 seasons in 2014 and 2015 are right in line with where the Aggie program has been the past 21 years.
Considering their fertile recruiting ground and their major facility upgrades, Texas A&M has not come close to reaching their full potential as a program. While I expect the 2016 season to be a bit rough, I do not see Texas A&M as a program in decline.
I see Texas A&M as a team in need of a quarterback, and a program on the verge of competing for championships every year. It will take some time, but everyone knows Texas A&M is a sleeping giant. The combination of Texas A&M and the SEC is lethal. It may take a few more years, but they will certainly improve as a program once they adjust the the SEC.
2
Posted on 2/16/16 at 2:19 pm to BHMKyle
This, my friends, is how you post and actually have discussion.
Posted on 2/16/16 at 2:22 pm to BHMKyle
SEC programs in decline:
*Florida- have been declining now since 2009
*South Carolina- coming off the highs of the Spurrier era
*Missouri- The era from 2007-2014 is without a doubt the Golden Age of Mizzou football. While they've often had a great season here or there (like 1960), Missouri has never been as strong for this long of a period as they were from 2007-2014.
During this 8-year stretch, Missouri compiled two 10-win seasons... one 11-win season.. .and two 12-win seasons.
They had two 8-win seasons and one bad 5-win season all in between.
You don't see winning like that in Columbia for a period as long as 8 years. The 2015 season was a disaster. Mizzou might be slightly better next year, but I don't expect them to compete in the East, and 7 wins would be a stretch. I think this program has peaked and will go back to having sporadic good years from time to time.
*Florida- have been declining now since 2009
*South Carolina- coming off the highs of the Spurrier era
*Missouri- The era from 2007-2014 is without a doubt the Golden Age of Mizzou football. While they've often had a great season here or there (like 1960), Missouri has never been as strong for this long of a period as they were from 2007-2014.
During this 8-year stretch, Missouri compiled two 10-win seasons... one 11-win season.. .and two 12-win seasons.
They had two 8-win seasons and one bad 5-win season all in between.
You don't see winning like that in Columbia for a period as long as 8 years. The 2015 season was a disaster. Mizzou might be slightly better next year, but I don't expect them to compete in the East, and 7 wins would be a stretch. I think this program has peaked and will go back to having sporadic good years from time to time.
This post was edited on 2/16/16 at 2:28 pm
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