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By the Advanced Stats : Bama vs MSU Matchups
Posted on 11/11/15 at 9:20 am
Posted on 11/11/15 at 9:20 am
S&P 2015 Stats (Football Outsiders)
When State has the ball
Passing
State #11 vs Bama #1
Running
State #60 vs Bama #1
Standard Downs (1st, 2nd and 7 or less, 3rd/4th and 4 or less)
State #17 vs Bama #1
Passing Downs (2nd and 8+, 3rd/4th and 5+)
State #23 vs Bama #4
When Bama has the ball
Passing
Bama #40 vs State #34
Running
Bama #19 vs State #58
Standard Downs
Bama #22 vs State #71
Passing Downs
Bama #47 vs State #7
Miscellaneous
Adjusted Pace of Play
State #108 vs Bama #32
So, pretty clearly, State's best chance on defense is to find a way to get Alabama in passing downs. I think that all boils down to our line performing like they did against Wisconsin/Georgia/LSU in terms of no penalties, limited negative plays, etc. If they perform like they did vs Tennessee and Arkansas then State is going to be able to make this thing really scary. It is a pretty simple analysis for Alabama. When we stay ahead of the chains we are very, very good on offense. When we fall behind the chains we start spinning our wheels.
On the other side, obviously State is going to have to throw it 100 times. It's their best chance.
I thought the pace stats were interesting. State really plays at a snails pace and Alabama actually plays pretty quickly.
When State has the ball
Passing
State #11 vs Bama #1
Running
State #60 vs Bama #1
Standard Downs (1st, 2nd and 7 or less, 3rd/4th and 4 or less)
State #17 vs Bama #1
Passing Downs (2nd and 8+, 3rd/4th and 5+)
State #23 vs Bama #4
When Bama has the ball
Passing
Bama #40 vs State #34
Running
Bama #19 vs State #58
Standard Downs
Bama #22 vs State #71
Passing Downs
Bama #47 vs State #7
Miscellaneous
Adjusted Pace of Play
State #108 vs Bama #32
So, pretty clearly, State's best chance on defense is to find a way to get Alabama in passing downs. I think that all boils down to our line performing like they did against Wisconsin/Georgia/LSU in terms of no penalties, limited negative plays, etc. If they perform like they did vs Tennessee and Arkansas then State is going to be able to make this thing really scary. It is a pretty simple analysis for Alabama. When we stay ahead of the chains we are very, very good on offense. When we fall behind the chains we start spinning our wheels.
On the other side, obviously State is going to have to throw it 100 times. It's their best chance.
I thought the pace stats were interesting. State really plays at a snails pace and Alabama actually plays pretty quickly.
This post was edited on 11/11/15 at 9:23 am
3
Posted on 11/11/15 at 9:25 am to SummerOfGeorge
quote:
the other side, obviously State is going to have to throw it 100 times. It's their best chance.
State also needs to attack the C-gaps in the run game, probably Dax. They will not be able to run between the tackles, so they need to attack outside the tackles.
Posted on 11/11/15 at 9:32 am to SummerOfGeorge
Yep. I would gladly take 1-2 yards on every first down.
Posted on 11/11/15 at 9:37 am to SummerOfGeorge
Do you believe there's such thing as bend don't break defense? The fact that we haven't given up many touchdowns and we're very good on 3rd &5+ Should tell you something. Maybe not though. Maybe all you can do is determine which number is higher and which one is lower and sink all of your eggs in that basket
This post was edited on 11/11/15 at 9:38 am
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