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re: Big 6 membership

Posted on 8/28/15 at 3:06 pm to
Posted by BHMKyle
Birmingham, AL
Member since Feb 2013
5076 posts
Posted on 8/28/15 at 3:06 pm to
It will take a very long time for any other program to join the "Big 6". Texas A&M is really the only team that has a fighting chance to do so in the next 40 years.

The "Big 6" have won every single Football SEC Championship since 1977. The six programs share a total of 41 SEC Championships over this period of time, and they are dispersed fairly evenly:

10- Alabama
8- Florida
7- Auburn
6- LSU
5- Georgia
5- Tennessee

Also since 1977, all of the "Big 6" members have at least one national title:

5- Alabama (1978, 1979, 1992, 2009, 2011, 2012)
3- Florida (1996, 2006, 2008)
2- LSU (2003, 2007)
1- Georgia (1980)
1- Auburn (2010)
1- Tennessee (1998)

No other current SEC program has won either an SEC Title or a National Title in this 38-year period of time.

The "Big 6" also lead the way in terms of overall wins and winning percentage since 1977:

70.6%- Alabama (318-132-2)
70.4%- Georgia (325-135-6)
70.1%- Florida (325-137-6)
68.3%- Auburn (311-143-6)
66.0%- Tennessee (303-154-8)
65.3%- LSU (298-157-6)
--------------------------------
64.0%- Texas A&M (294-165-3)
60.7%- Arkansas (276-178-5)
54.2%- South Carolina (240-202-7)
51.0%- Ole Miss (225-216-4)
50.2%- Missouri (223-221-7)

So in order for another program to join this top group, it would require the following:

1) At least 1 National Championship
2) At least 5 SEC Championships
3) Get up above 65% winning percentage dating back to at least 1977

The big question is: Would any of the new SEC programs have won any championships had they been in the SEC since 1977? Who knows. No one does. But examining previous seasons' historical outcomes, it looks unlikely.

Since 1977, but prior to joining the SEC, the new SEC members only finished in the AP Top 10 on seven occasions:

2007- Missouri (#4)
1994- Texas A&M (#8)
1993- Texas A&M (#9)
1992- Texas A&M (#7)
1987- Texas A&M (#10)
1985- Texas A&M (#6)
1979- Arkansas (#8)

Would any of these seven teams won the SEC had they been members of the conference in those seasons? Possibly, but its unlikely.

At least two SEC teams finished ahead of those teams mentioned above during those years, except twice.... in in those two seasons, one SEC team finished ranked ahead but it was an SEC National Champion team.

2007- #1 LSU, #2 Georiga, #4 Missouri
1994- #5 Alabama, #7 Florida, #8 Texas A&M
1993- #4 Auburn, #5 Florida, #9 Texas A&M
1992- #1 Alabama, #7 Texas A&M
1987- #5 LSU, #7 Auburn, #10 Texas A&M
1985- #4 Tennessee, #5 Florida, #6 Texas A&M
1979- #1 Alabama, #8 Arkansas

Based on this history, it does not appear that being in the SEC in those seasons would have actually produced SEC Championships for Mizzou, Texas A&M, or Arkansas.

Texas A&M has the best chance of joining the group, though it would probably take a very long time to do so. They are close in the win category.

Winning 5 SEC Titles and a National Title would probably do it for them.... but we're talking a minimum of five seasons, and with the parity in this conference, reality says it would be nearly if not totally impossible to win 5 consecutive SEC Championships.

In reality, its entirely possible for the Aggies to join the top group, but it will likely take a very strong 20-year period to do so. During that time, the "Big 6" will continue to win Championships, so the bar might continue to move forward. It might actually take 6 or 7 SEC Titles to actually join the group.

I don't think Arkansas can do it. They've had 23 years to win an SEC Title and they've failed to do it yet... how are they going to suddenly rattle off 5 of 6? Enjoy your mid-tier status Hogs. You aren't moving up in your lifetime.

Mizzou is too far behind in the wins/winning percentage. Not only would they need to win a National Title or two, but they'd need to win 8-9 SEC Titles to overcome their shortage of wins over the past 40 years or so.

For South Carolina- see explanation for Arkansas.

For Ole Miss, a sudden run of 3 or so titles might shift the time period backwards. While every SEC Title has been won by the "Big 6" since 1977, all but one has been won by the "Big 6" since 1964 (Kentucky shared the title with Georgia in 1976).

But before 1964, Ole Miss had a solid run. They won five SEC Titles between 1954 and 1964. If they went on a run and won 3-4 new SEC Titles in the near future, you might could call the top tier "The Big 7" and date it back to 1953.

Although pushing it backwards just adds up more accolades for the real "Big 6". LSU won a National Title in 1958. Auburn in 1957. All "Big 6" members other than Florida won SEC Titles between 1953 and 1976, so it just makes for more catching up to do.

Ole Miss' other problem is their horrific winning percentage since 1965. They would have a lot of catching up to do in that department.

So to sum this all up, the Aggies have a fighting chance, but it will take some time. At least they have the resources to do it. And they reside in fertile recruiting territory.

No evidence exists to suggest any of the other programs will ever join the top group other than a great season or two. They can join Kentucky's 1976 squad as having broken the barrier for a single year, but its unlikely they'll become the next Florida and suddenly join the Big boys.

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