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re: AP Top Ten analysis 2012-2014 (weeks 1-7 only)

Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:26 pm to
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
81081 posts
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:26 pm to
quote:

That is pretty interesting, why not use a larger sample size?


I only used the post-realignment numbers.

I can try to go back 5 years total (2010-2014).

2011

Week 1: #3 Oregon lost to #4 LSU

Week 2: None

Week 3: #5 Florida State lost to #1 Oklahoma

Week 4: #8 Texas A&M lost to #7 Oklahoma State

Week 5: #8 Nebraska lost to #7 Wisconsin, #10 South Carolina lost to Auburn

Week 6: None

Week 7: None

2010 season:

Week 1: #10 Virginia Tech lost to #3 Boise State

Week 2: None

Week 3: #9 Iowa lost to #24 Arizona

Week 4: #7 Texas lost to UCLA, #10 Arkansas lost to #1 Alabama

Week 5: #7 Florida lost to #1 Alabama, #9 Stanford lost to #4 Oregon

Week 6: #1 Alabama lost to #19 South Carolina, #9 Arizona lost to Oregon State

Week 7: #1 Ohio State lost to #18 Wisconsin, #5 Nebraska lost to Texas, #10 South Carolina lost to Kentucky

Add

2 losses to #1
0 losses to #2
1 loss to #3
1 loss to #4
3 losses to #5
0 losses to #6
2 losses to #7
2 losses to #8
2 losses to #9
4 loss to #10
Posted by CGSC Lobotomy
Member since Sep 2011
81081 posts
Posted on 9/14/14 at 4:31 pm to
Adding that to the 2012-2014 numbers:

#1 lost 2 times
#2 lost 1 times
#3 lost 3 times
#4 lost 2 times
#5 lost 7 times
#6 lost 5 times
#7 lost 4 times
#8 lost 10 times
#9 lost 4 times
#10 lost 7 times

Updating the math, and using an opponent with a chance of winning:

Clemson has a 7% chance of beating Florida State

Washington State has a 3% chance of beating Oregon

Florida has a 10% chance of beating Alabama

West Virginia has a 7% chance of beating Oklahoma

Kansas State has a 23% chance of beating Auburn

SMU has ZERO chance of beating A&M

Baylor has a BYE

Mississippi State has a 33% chance of beating LSU

Notre Dame and Ole Miss both have BYEs
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