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Hypothetically Speaking...Top 5 going into Bowl Selection?

Posted on 11/7/13 at 2:30 pm
Posted by AtlantaSportsGuy
Cola
Member since Nov 2013
449 posts
Posted on 11/7/13 at 2:30 pm
Okay this may sound like a stretch but...if South Carolina wins out could we be Top 5?

Miami loses again possibly at Duke, for sure in ACC Title Game
Oklahoma loses tonight at Baylor or at Oklahoma St
Auburn loses to Alabama
Mizzou loses to at Ole Miss, Texas A&M, or in SEC Title Game
Clemson loses to South Carolina

This would put us at 7 in the country:
We won't jump a 1 loss Bama, Oregon, FSU, or Baylor
Ohio St might lose at Michigan and drop behind us
Baylor could lose tonight and at Oklahoma St
Stanford could lose tonight

At this point you have to think we would be a lock for a BCS Bowl Birth...I know its a lot of "ifs" but its quite possible!
Posted by CockInYourEar
Charlotte
Member since Sep 2012
22458 posts
Posted on 11/7/13 at 2:57 pm to
Even if we win out the Reg Season we won't be Top 5 realistically, b/c we would have to have too many other teams lose games they probably won't to push us up.

If we would've beat Tenn, then yes, winning out would've put us in the Top 5.

Now, hypothetically, for end of year after the Bowls, we could absolutely end up in the Top 5.
Beating #7-9 clemson, #1 Bama (in the SECCG) and then winning the Sugar Bowl against whoever would put us probably in the Top 4. That's all hypothetical though.

For the End of the Reg Season, our Cap would probably be #8, if we win out and some teams lose ahead of us (like the ones you pointed out.) Realistically, I do see us winning out and being #8 or #9 at the end of the Reg Season.
This post was edited on 11/7/13 at 2:59 pm
Posted by AtlantaSportsGuy
Cola
Member since Nov 2013
449 posts
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:17 pm to
quote:

Realistically, I do see us winning out and being #8 or #9 at the end of the Reg Season.
So we should get a Sugar Bowl birth by being 2nd highest in SEC, right?
Posted by scrooster
Resident Ethicist
Member since Jul 2012
42913 posts
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:18 pm to
Solid reasoning CiyE. Except for one thing.

If we win-out the regular season and, let's say, make it to Atlanta, which I believe we will ... then what happens?

If we win the SECCG and a BCS Bowl, absolutely we finished the entire season in the Top Five.

But, BUT, if we win-out the regular season and make it to Atlanta, which I believe we will ... but then if we lose, then we absorb our third loss and drop like a rock to somewhere, depending upon how bad, between 15-20.

From there it would be very difficult to climb back into the Top 10 by season's end, if not impossible.

The SECCG is a double-edged sword, but I wouldn't want it any other way and I sure hope to make the trip to Atlanta.
Posted by AtlantaSportsGuy
Cola
Member since Nov 2013
449 posts
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:32 pm to
Now say Missouri goes to the SECCG out of the East and gets destroyed by Alabama. Would the same thing that happened to Georgia last year happen to Missouri this year? Which would be Missouri falling behind us and USC getting a Sugar Bowl birth out of default such as Florida did last year? Because we would be ranked 6-8 if we win out...
Posted by Loathor
Columbia, SC
Member since Jun 2012
2369 posts
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:34 pm to
quote:

Okay this may sound like a stretch but...if South Carolina wins out could we be Top 5?

Miami loses again possibly at Duke, for sure in ACC Title Game
Oklahoma loses tonight at Baylor or at Oklahoma St
Auburn loses to Alabama
Mizzou loses to at Ole Miss, Texas A&M, or in SEC Title Game
Clemson loses to South Carolina

This would put us at 7 in the country:
We won't jump a 1 loss Bama, Oregon, FSU, or Baylor
Ohio St might lose at Michigan and drop behind us
Baylor could lose tonight and at Oklahoma St
Stanford could lose tonight

At this point you have to think we would be a lock for a BCS Bowl Birth...I know its a lot of "ifs" but its quite possible!




Hypothetically speaking... we could be number one by the end of the regular season... All the teams above us lose out, except for those playing each other who lose every game but that one. Why not dream big?
Posted by AtlantaSportsGuy
Cola
Member since Nov 2013
449 posts
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:38 pm to
I was trying to be realistic...which I think I am being
Posted by CockInYourEar
Charlotte
Member since Sep 2012
22458 posts
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:55 pm to
quote:

But, BUT, if we win-out the regular season and make it to Atlanta, which I believe we will ... but then if we lose, then we absorb our third loss and drop like a rock to somewhere, depending upon how bad, between 15-20.

From there it would be very difficult to climb back into the Top 10 by season's end, if not impossible.

The SECCG is a double-edged sword, but I wouldn't want it any other way and I sure hope to make the trip to Atlanta.


True, but I would risk dropping out of the Top 25 even, if it meant we had a shot to win the SECCG, no matter how unfavorable the odds are. I play a lot of poker, I take calculated risks based on odds all the time. I would put us as a 5-1 underdog to lose to Bama in that SECCG, but I've been beat by enough runner-runner's on the turn and river to know that stranger things have happened.
This post was edited on 11/7/13 at 3:56 pm
Posted by Loathor
Columbia, SC
Member since Jun 2012
2369 posts
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:56 pm to
quote:

I was trying to be realistic...which I think I am being



Just yanking your chain, hoss.

But, you did leave out the championship games for OSU, Oregon, FSU and Alabama. Michigan State could do some real damage to OSU, their defense is beyond legit. UCLA, ASU or Arizona could get lucky against Oregon, doubtful, but you never know. Miami, GT or VT could sneak up on FSU (very doubtful...). And Alabama still has us, UM or UGA to get past.

None of these are likely, but it's not out of the realm of possibility that those uber teams mess up along the way. That would be entertaining to say the least.
Posted by AtlantaSportsGuy
Cola
Member since Nov 2013
449 posts
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:58 pm to
even if those teams get upset they only have one loss...would doubt Bama drops more than a spot or two if they get upset
Posted by CockInYourEar
Charlotte
Member since Sep 2012
22458 posts
Posted on 11/7/13 at 3:59 pm to
quote:

So we should get a Sugar Bowl birth by being 2nd highest in SEC, right?


If we win the SECCG, most likely no SEC team will go to the BCSCG.

If we lose the SECCG, the SECw (probably Bama) will go to the BCSCG and we will be a 3 loss team. If Aub only has 2 losses, they will probably go to the Sugar and we'll end up at the Cap One or Outback. If Mizzou loses 2 more games, we'll go to the Cap One.

Posted by Loathor
Columbia, SC
Member since Jun 2012
2369 posts
Posted on 11/7/13 at 4:05 pm to
quote:

even if those teams get upset they only have one loss...would doubt Bama drops more than a spot or two if they get upset


Man, the SECr (and the rest of the sports world as well) would flip if Alabama lost the SECCG to an east team with one or two losses and then went to the NCG with everyone else losing as well... The butt hurt would be palpable!! I kind of want to see that happen now.
Posted by CockInYourEar
Charlotte
Member since Sep 2012
22458 posts
Posted on 11/7/13 at 4:13 pm to
quote:

Man, the SECr (and the rest of the sports world as well) would flip if Alabama lost the SECCG to an east team with one or two losses and then went to the NCG with everyone else losing as well... The butt hurt would be palpable!! I kind of want to see that happen now.


If there isn't more than 1 undefeated team, it could happen. Back in '10 they said that Auburn could lose to USC in the SECCG and still have a shot at the BCSCG.
Posted by scrooster
Resident Ethicist
Member since Jul 2012
42913 posts
Posted on 11/7/13 at 4:18 pm to
quote:

Now say Missouri goes to the SECCG out of the East and gets destroyed by Alabama. Would the same thing that happened to Georgia last year happen to Missouri this year? Which would be Missouri falling behind us and USC getting a Sugar Bowl birth out of default such as Florida did last year? Because we would be ranked 6-8 if we win out...


If Mizzou goes representing the East and gets blown-out, then I suppose it would be the highest ranked SEC team behind the SECCG with a chance at an at large BCS bid .... which could, conceivably, be us.

I just don't see Mizzou making it to Atlanta. Georgia is my big worry. Of all years to lose to them recently it sucks to have worked-out the way it has this year.

And that frickin' loss to Tennessee. Good gosh.
Posted by Cockopotamus
Member since Jan 2013
16000 posts
Posted on 11/7/13 at 4:33 pm to
quote:

Missouri falling behind us and USC getting a Sugar Bowl birth out of default such as Florida did last year?


Anyone know the ranking required to get an automatic at large birth in the BCS? Florida got one at 3 but I think the cutoff is 4 so I doubt we swing that.

I highly doubt that we get to the Sugar Bowl without winning in ATL and there would have to be some crazy things to happen for us to be in the top 5 heading into ATL
Posted by AtlantaSportsGuy
Cola
Member since Nov 2013
449 posts
Posted on 11/7/13 at 9:26 pm to
USA Today, ESPN, and CBS Sports all predict USC to make Sugar Bowl and Alabama in BCS Title game which means we get it by at large birth
Posted by CockInYourEar
Charlotte
Member since Sep 2012
22458 posts
Posted on 11/7/13 at 9:56 pm to
I wouldn't mind if we earn our way into the Sugar the hard way and win the SEC. I would gladly sacrifice a SEC National Championship for a USC SEC Championship any day.
Posted by Cockopotamus
Member since Jan 2013
16000 posts
Posted on 11/8/13 at 1:57 am to
Their guesses are worth just as much as anybody elses because they are just that- guesses.

Still a lot of football left. I don't pay attention to bowl predicitons until championship week and even then an upset or two can throw those things way off
Posted by atlgamecockman
Nola
Member since Dec 2012
4324 posts
Posted on 11/8/13 at 5:47 am to
quote:

I wouldn't mind if we earn our way into the Sugar the hard way and win the SEC. I would gladly sacrifice a SEC National Championship for a USC SEC Championship any day.



This all day
Posted by CHSgc
Charleston, SC
Member since Oct 2012
1658 posts
Posted on 11/8/13 at 10:49 am to
I'm starting to get nervous a/b UGA winning out.

I think all of us would prefer to go to the SECCG over a BCS bowl. Not to mention, if we win the SECCG, we get an auto BCS bowl.

I could use a trip to NOLA.
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