re: Stats from the last LSU/Bama Game: Will Bama's Defense be able to Repeat?

Crazy stat has something to do with the following:
If Bama rushes for at least 140 yds, they've got an ungodly probability of winning games.
I'll try and find it.

2012 SEC Rushing Defense / Opponents’ Yards-Per-Carry

School Opp. Yds/Carry SEC Record
Alabama 2.55 7-1
Florida 3.02 7-1
S. Carolina 3.11 6-2
LSU 3.37 6-2
Arkansas 3.57 2-6
Ole Miss 3.68 3-5
Georgia 3.85 7-1
Texas A&M 3.93 6-2
Miss. State 4.23 4-4
Kentucky 4.29 0-8
Missouri 4.43 2-6
Vanderbilt 4.62 5-3
Tennessee 5.07 1-7
Auburn 5.33 0-8


Observations

* Just as pass defense meant a little bit more than pass offense, rushing defense means a bit more in SEC play than rushing offense. Teams that held their opponents to under four yards per rush attempt totaled 44 wins against just 20 losses in SEC play last year. Teams that allowed more than four yards per carry finished a combined 12-36 in the league.

* Again, there were some exceptions to the rule, but there were fewer of them. Arkansas and Ole Miss stand out among the teams near the top of the chart, but those two squads led the league in giveaways last season, undermining their ability to stop their foes’ ground games. Vanderbilt was lone winning team ranked in the bottom six of this category, but four of their five league wins came against other teams that allowed more than four yards per carry.

* Simply put, running the ball effectively helps, but stopping opposing teams from running effectively is much more important when it comes to winning football games in the SEC.

* To compare these numbers to SEC squads’ rushing ability last season, click here to find our breakdown of teams’ in the offensive yards-per-carry category. Also, check out our pass game comparisons by clicking here to see yards-per-attempt data and by clicking here to see opponents’ yards-per-attempt data. LINK /