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My BCS calculations and scenarios
Posted on 12/4/11 at 1:02 pm
Posted on 12/4/11 at 1:02 pm
Based on the released coaches poll, we know that Alabama has 1399 points and OSU has 1367 points.
The BCS average is determined by averaging the Coaches Poll, Harris Poll, and the 4 non-extreme computers poll.
The formula for determining Alabama's BCS ranking will be:
(1399/1475 + Computers Avg + Harris Avg)/3.
And OSU's will be (1367/1475 + Computers Avg + Harris Avg)/3.
If we assume that either OSU or Alabama will be numbers 2 and 3 on the Harris Poll (and I know that this isn't a given with Stanford sitting there, but it makes the calculations possible) the formula for the Harris Avg for Alabama will be (24*x + 23*(115-x))/(115*25) where x is the number of second place votes for Alabama. OSU's formula for the Harris Avg will be (24*(115-x) + 23*x)/(115*25) where x is the number of 3rd place votes for OSU.
If OSU is ahead in 4 of the computers that count, their Computer average will be .96 and Alabama's will be .92.
If OSU is ahead in 3 of the computers that count, their Computer average will be .95 and Alabama's will be .93.
Running the equations with both of these assumptions we can determine the number of second place votes that Alabama will need to be ahead of OSU.
In the first scenario, where OSU is ahead in the 4 computers that count, Alabama will need at least 84 second place votes with OSU getting the remaining 31 second place votes.
In the second scenario where OSU is ahead in only 3 computers that counts, Alabama will need at least 56 second place votes in the Harris Poll with OSU getting the remaining 59 second place votes.
But even if they do not split all of the number 2 and 3 votes, it will still give us the gaps needed.
In scenario 1, the gap needs to be Alabama +53 points. In scenario 2, the gap needs to be OSU +3
The BCS average is determined by averaging the Coaches Poll, Harris Poll, and the 4 non-extreme computers poll.
The formula for determining Alabama's BCS ranking will be:
(1399/1475 + Computers Avg + Harris Avg)/3.
And OSU's will be (1367/1475 + Computers Avg + Harris Avg)/3.
If we assume that either OSU or Alabama will be numbers 2 and 3 on the Harris Poll (and I know that this isn't a given with Stanford sitting there, but it makes the calculations possible) the formula for the Harris Avg for Alabama will be (24*x + 23*(115-x))/(115*25) where x is the number of second place votes for Alabama. OSU's formula for the Harris Avg will be (24*(115-x) + 23*x)/(115*25) where x is the number of 3rd place votes for OSU.
If OSU is ahead in 4 of the computers that count, their Computer average will be .96 and Alabama's will be .92.
If OSU is ahead in 3 of the computers that count, their Computer average will be .95 and Alabama's will be .93.
Running the equations with both of these assumptions we can determine the number of second place votes that Alabama will need to be ahead of OSU.
In the first scenario, where OSU is ahead in the 4 computers that count, Alabama will need at least 84 second place votes with OSU getting the remaining 31 second place votes.
In the second scenario where OSU is ahead in only 3 computers that counts, Alabama will need at least 56 second place votes in the Harris Poll with OSU getting the remaining 59 second place votes.
But even if they do not split all of the number 2 and 3 votes, it will still give us the gaps needed.
In scenario 1, the gap needs to be Alabama +53 points. In scenario 2, the gap needs to be OSU +3
7
Posted on 12/4/11 at 1:10 pm to m1q32
Posted on 12/4/11 at 1:11 pm to m1q32
Math bruh
Posted on 12/4/11 at 1:14 pm to m1q32
Looks pretty good for Bama at this point IMO - close, but Bama
Posted on 12/4/11 at 1:16 pm to m1q32
tl:d(solve for x)
Posted on 12/4/11 at 1:17 pm to sawfiddle
so with coaches poll:
Bama 1399 -- 0.948474576
OSU 1367 -- 0.926779661
computer with projections from CBS and my calculations:
Bama 0.930
OSU 0.950
using past week's harris:
bama .9586
OSU .8953
BCS would be:
bama .9456
OSU .9240
so currently, OSU has 1.876 and Bama has 1.878 before Harris, so OSU has to be #2 in Harris to jump Bama, I don't think that's happening especially with AP #2 coming out as Bama
Bama 1399 -- 0.948474576
OSU 1367 -- 0.926779661
computer with projections from CBS and my calculations:
Bama 0.930
OSU 0.950
using past week's harris:
bama .9586
OSU .8953
BCS would be:
bama .9456
OSU .9240
so currently, OSU has 1.876 and Bama has 1.878 before Harris, so OSU has to be #2 in Harris to jump Bama, I don't think that's happening especially with AP #2 coming out as Bama
Posted on 12/4/11 at 1:17 pm to sawfiddle
quote:
tl:d(solve for x)
Just jump to the underlined part at the end I solved for x for you.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 1:19 pm to Guchi
i love that gif. wish i knew what they were looking at 
Posted on 12/4/11 at 1:19 pm to sawfiddle
quote:
tl:d(solve for x)
nice dude
Posted on 12/4/11 at 1:20 pm to dallasga6
That would be the second scenario. Alabama is ahead in 2 of the 6 computers, i.e. only behind in 3 that count. In that case osu would need to be number 2 by 3 points.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 1:20 pm to m1q32
You must have been the top student in your homeschool class.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 1:30 pm to m1q32
Great job breaking this down. When you break down the formula step by step, it really isn't that difficult to figure out.
On a site full of rampant speculation, this is the first post where I've seen objectivity.
My personal opinion is that Oklahoma State will not have enough votes in the Harris Poll to knock Bama out of the top spot.
On a site full of rampant speculation, this is the first post where I've seen objectivity.
My personal opinion is that Oklahoma State will not have enough votes in the Harris Poll to knock Bama out of the top spot.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 1:41 pm to Dignan
Thank you. You are correct. The actual calculations once you have some of the data aren't too hard. The hard part is projecting the standings without any of the data out which the experts try to do on Sunday mornings.
Posted on 12/4/11 at 1:49 pm to X
Posted on 12/4/11 at 1:51 pm to m1q32
Posted on 12/4/11 at 1:57 pm to X
Posted on 12/4/11 at 1:58 pm to lsugunner
You're late to the party, homie. 
Posted on 12/4/11 at 2:05 pm to RockyMtnTigerWDE
Is looking like Bama got it.
Congrats!!
Congrats!!
Posted on 12/4/11 at 4:38 pm to AtlantaLSUfan
quote:
Is looking like Bama got it. Congrats!!
We are not in yet. I would feel a lot better if we knew for sure that Alabama was ahead in 2 of the computers.
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