re: Do the handicappers have it right?

It is not the handicappers that "get it right". It is Power Analysis.

If you get a LARGE sample size, the average will be very nearly the correct answer.

This is why the line MOVES. The handicapper is guessing where the public will be at first...then, as the bets come in, he changes the line to account for it.



So, he is not guessing the score of the game. He is guessing the thoughts of the betting public.



So, the final "line" may indeed be very close. But, that is a function of a huge sample size (bettors on sporting events)