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re: Pat Forde grades the Pac-10 and SEC
Posted on 12/1/10 at 12:20 am to Biggus Duckus
Posted on 12/1/10 at 12:20 am to Biggus Duckus
Pac-10 schools play 9 conference games. That means they will average 4.5 wins per team from conference games. They have to win 1.5 out of 3 non-conference games in order to become bowl eligible in a 12 game season. Only 3 Pac-10 schools won less than 2 non-conference games, Oregon State, Washington and Washington State. So 7 of the Pac-10 schools should reasonably be expected to qualify for bowl games.
SEC schools play 8 conference games. That means they will average 4 wins per team from conference games, and they have to win 2 out of 4 non-conference games to become bowl eligible. Only 2 SEC teams won less than 3 non-conference games, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, and they were the only 2 teams from the SEC who are not bowl eligible.
The SEC has completed it regular season so it is possible to calculate the standard deviation from the 4 conference win average for the season. The STDEVP function in Excel returned 1.7795 as the standard deviation from the mean. The Pac-10 has not completed its regular season games. Assuming the teams with better records will win the remaining games I entered the Pac-10 expected results in the STDEVP function. It returned a standard deviation of 2.3770. If I assume the teams with the worse records win all the remaining games , then the standard deviation is 1.9105.
The standard deviation of the SEC is lower than any possible outcome for the Pac-10. I interpret that to mean the SEC is more competitive than the Pac-10 since the teams are closer to the mean. The scary thing about the Pac-10 is that the conference could end up with only two teams winning as many as 5 conference games. If Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA and Washingotn State win this weekend, then only Oregon and Stanford will have won more than 4 conference games. That would leave the Pac-10 with only 4 bowl eligible teams, 5 if you want to count USC who is ineligible due to probation. That is well short of the expected 7 bowl eligible teams based on non-conference results.
To me the Pac-10 failed to meet expectations while the SEC exceeded expectations.
SEC schools play 8 conference games. That means they will average 4 wins per team from conference games, and they have to win 2 out of 4 non-conference games to become bowl eligible. Only 2 SEC teams won less than 3 non-conference games, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, and they were the only 2 teams from the SEC who are not bowl eligible.
The SEC has completed it regular season so it is possible to calculate the standard deviation from the 4 conference win average for the season. The STDEVP function in Excel returned 1.7795 as the standard deviation from the mean. The Pac-10 has not completed its regular season games. Assuming the teams with better records will win the remaining games I entered the Pac-10 expected results in the STDEVP function. It returned a standard deviation of 2.3770. If I assume the teams with the worse records win all the remaining games , then the standard deviation is 1.9105.
The standard deviation of the SEC is lower than any possible outcome for the Pac-10. I interpret that to mean the SEC is more competitive than the Pac-10 since the teams are closer to the mean. The scary thing about the Pac-10 is that the conference could end up with only two teams winning as many as 5 conference games. If Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA and Washingotn State win this weekend, then only Oregon and Stanford will have won more than 4 conference games. That would leave the Pac-10 with only 4 bowl eligible teams, 5 if you want to count USC who is ineligible due to probation. That is well short of the expected 7 bowl eligible teams based on non-conference results.
To me the Pac-10 failed to meet expectations while the SEC exceeded expectations.
1
Posted on 12/1/10 at 12:59 am to Poodlebrain
quote:
Pac-10 schools play 9 conference games. That means they will average 4.5 wins per team from conference games. They have to win 1.5 out of 3 non-conference games in order to become bowl eligible in a 12 game season. Only 3 Pac-10 schools won less than 2 non-conference games, Oregon State, Washington and Washington State. So 7 of the Pac-10 schools should reasonably be expected to qualify for bowl games.
SEC schools play 8 conference games. That means they will average 4 wins per team from conference games, and they have to win 2 out of 4 non-conference games to become bowl eligible. Only 2 SEC teams won less than 3 non-conference games, Ole Miss and Vanderbilt, and they were the only 2 teams from the SEC who are not bowl eligible.
The SEC has completed it regular season so it is possible to calculate the standard deviation from the 4 conference win average for the season. The STDEVP function in Excel returned 1.7795 as the standard deviation from the mean. The Pac-10 has not completed its regular season games. Assuming the teams with better records will win the remaining games I entered the Pac-10 expected results in the STDEVP function. It returned a standard deviation of 2.3770. If I assume the teams with the worse records win all the remaining games , then the standard deviation is 1.9105.
The standard deviation of the SEC is lower than any possible outcome for the Pac-10. I interpret that to mean the SEC is more competitive than the Pac-10 since the teams are closer to the mean. The scary thing about the Pac-10 is that the conference could end up with only two teams winning as many as 5 conference games. If Oregon, Arizona State, UCLA and Washingotn State win this weekend, then only Oregon and Stanford will have won more than 4 conference games. That would leave the Pac-10 with only 4 bowl eligible teams, 5 if you want to count USC who is ineligible due to probation. That is well short of the expected 7 bowl eligible teams based on non-conference results.
To me the Pac-10 failed to meet expectations while the SEC exceeded expectations.
Quoted for truth
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