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This guy has predicted CFB Title winner from a top 3 O or D self made list for last 26 yrs
Posted on 1/10/26 at 9:32 am
Posted on 1/10/26 at 9:32 am
He’s a stat guy who tracks college data. And using his system of top 3 Offenses or Defenses his final end of season (before playoffs or title game) has the eventual winner listed.
Here’s his data for this year (he tracks it at start and during season)
15 Sep
Dave Bartoo
@CFBMatrix
Bookmark this thread ill update weekly
Longest running cfb title trend i know of is for 26 straight yrs the eventual NC winner ended the regular season top 3 in my offense or defense scoring efficiency ranks
I'll post weekly so u can watch the evolution of the top 3 til the end
10:14 AM · Sep 15, 2025
—-
Thru week 3 2025
Offense
USC
OREGON
ARKANSAS
Defense
MEMPHIS
OHIO STATE
OREGON
——
Thru week 7 top 3 for NC contention if ended today
Offense
Vanderbilt
USC
Nebraska
Defense
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Texas
——
Top 3 thru week 9
Offense
USC
Vanderbilt
Notre Dame
Defense
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Texas
Combined
Ohio state (current #1 NC winner odds)
Indiana (#2 odds)
Oklahoma
——
Thru week 11 2025
Top 3 Offense
Vanderbilt
USC
Notre Dame
Top 3 Defenses
Ohio State
Texas Tech
Oregon
——-
Thru week 12
Top 3 offenses
Vanderbilt
Notre Dame
USC
Top 3 Defenses
Ohio State
Texas Tech
Indiana
Thats the NC contender group thru week 12. Two weeks to go before it is SET
——
Final list
Nov 30, 2025
This is it. 26 year trend on the line (i will double check the final total) but here are the top 3 offenses and defenses by my scoring efficiency ratios.
Offense
Notre Dame
Indiana
Vanderbilt
Defense
Ohio State
Texas Tech
Indiana
(Someone asked him who was 4 on defense and of course it was OU just my luck. Here’s his reply: “Ou was 4 in remember. Then no other sec in top 10”)
Pretty fascinating his model has top 3 O or D as eventual winner 26 years in a row.
Here’s his original post if you want to click and go thru all the weeks.
Here’s his data for this year (he tracks it at start and during season)
15 Sep
Dave Bartoo
@CFBMatrix
Bookmark this thread ill update weekly
Longest running cfb title trend i know of is for 26 straight yrs the eventual NC winner ended the regular season top 3 in my offense or defense scoring efficiency ranks
I'll post weekly so u can watch the evolution of the top 3 til the end
10:14 AM · Sep 15, 2025
—-
Thru week 3 2025
Offense
USC
OREGON
ARKANSAS
Defense
MEMPHIS
OHIO STATE
OREGON
——
Thru week 7 top 3 for NC contention if ended today
Offense
Vanderbilt
USC
Nebraska
Defense
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Texas
——
Top 3 thru week 9
Offense
USC
Vanderbilt
Notre Dame
Defense
Ohio State
Oklahoma
Texas
Combined
Ohio state (current #1 NC winner odds)
Indiana (#2 odds)
Oklahoma
——
Thru week 11 2025
Top 3 Offense
Vanderbilt
USC
Notre Dame
Top 3 Defenses
Ohio State
Texas Tech
Oregon
——-
Thru week 12
Top 3 offenses
Vanderbilt
Notre Dame
USC
Top 3 Defenses
Ohio State
Texas Tech
Indiana
Thats the NC contender group thru week 12. Two weeks to go before it is SET
——
Final list
Nov 30, 2025
This is it. 26 year trend on the line (i will double check the final total) but here are the top 3 offenses and defenses by my scoring efficiency ratios.
Offense
Notre Dame
Indiana
Vanderbilt
Defense
Ohio State
Texas Tech
Indiana
(Someone asked him who was 4 on defense and of course it was OU just my luck. Here’s his reply: “Ou was 4 in remember. Then no other sec in top 10”)
Pretty fascinating his model has top 3 O or D as eventual winner 26 years in a row.
Here’s his original post if you want to click and go thru all the weeks.
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Posted on 1/10/26 at 9:42 am to OU Guy
That's pretty good. This absolutely supports the axiom "Defense Wins Championships".
By week 11 and through the end, Vanderbilt and Notre Dame were in the top 3 offenses and neither made the playoffs, but all of the top 3 defenses did.
By week 11 and through the end, Vanderbilt and Notre Dame were in the top 3 offenses and neither made the playoffs, but all of the top 3 defenses did.
Posted on 1/10/26 at 9:49 am to OU Guy
Not diminishing his formula and streak, but is it really all that surprising that the national champion always has either a Top3 defense or a Top3 offense?
Posted on 1/10/26 at 9:51 am to Doak Walker
I’d love to get his prior 25 years final list. Just to see where the champ came from (O or D) and how many were both.
Posted on 1/10/26 at 9:52 am to JPLSU1981
quote:
Not diminishing his formula and streak, but is it really all that surprising that the national champion always has either a Top3 defense or a Top3 offense?
Yes, but he has his own data in how he calculates those stats. Its not the same as your bigger sites.
Posted on 1/10/26 at 9:54 am to Doak Walker
quote:
That's pretty good. This absolutely supports the axiom "Defense Wins Championships".
By week 11 and through the end, Vanderbilt and Notre Dame were in the top 3 offenses and neither made the playoffs, but all of the top 3 defenses did.
And he had OU 4 on D in his final. And they were the only SEC team in his top 10 D at end
Posted on 1/10/26 at 9:59 am to JPLSU1981
That’s what I’m saying. Way to go out on a limb Bartoo. It’s the same thing with the KenPom top 20 in Offense or Defense in basketball
Posted on 1/10/26 at 10:13 am to RopeMagic
quote:
That’s what I’m saying. Way to go out on a limb Bartoo. It’s the same thing with the KenPom top 20 in Offense or Defense in basketball
Has KenPom published a final top 3 O/D for 26 years and the title winner came from that list? Really curious, I don’t know
Posted on 1/10/26 at 11:22 am to OU Guy
Ok, let's check other metrics.
FEI
2025 - has Indiana in both.
2024 - correct
2023 - correct
2022 - correct
2021 - correct
2020 - correct
2019 - correct
2018 - correct
2017 - correct
2016 - correct
2015 - correct
2014 - miss - has Ohio St #4 in offense rather than #3.
2013 - correct
2012 - correct
2011 - correct
2010 - correct
2009 - correct
2008 - correct
2007 - miss, has LSU #6 and #8.
F+
2025 - has Indiana in both
2024 - correct
2023 - correct
2022 - correct
2021 - correct
2020 - correct
2019 - correct
2018 - correct
2017 - correct
2016 - correct
2015 - correct
2014 - correct
2013 - correct
2012 - correct
2011 - correct
2010 - correct
2009 - correct
2008 - correct
2007 - Miss, has LSU #5 and #6
I'd like to know where he had LSU in 2007 because quite franking, I don't believe it.
So overall, I don't see a big deal. Turns out when you get 6 guesses among the top teams you can have a pretty good chance of getting it right.
FEI
2025 - has Indiana in both.
2024 - correct
2023 - correct
2022 - correct
2021 - correct
2020 - correct
2019 - correct
2018 - correct
2017 - correct
2016 - correct
2015 - correct
2014 - miss - has Ohio St #4 in offense rather than #3.
2013 - correct
2012 - correct
2011 - correct
2010 - correct
2009 - correct
2008 - correct
2007 - miss, has LSU #6 and #8.
F+
2025 - has Indiana in both
2024 - correct
2023 - correct
2022 - correct
2021 - correct
2020 - correct
2019 - correct
2018 - correct
2017 - correct
2016 - correct
2015 - correct
2014 - correct
2013 - correct
2012 - correct
2011 - correct
2010 - correct
2009 - correct
2008 - correct
2007 - Miss, has LSU #5 and #6
I'd like to know where he had LSU in 2007 because quite franking, I don't believe it.
So overall, I don't see a big deal. Turns out when you get 6 guesses among the top teams you can have a pretty good chance of getting it right.
Posted on 1/10/26 at 11:33 am to OU Guy
quote:
his own data
What does this even mean?
Posted on 1/10/26 at 12:09 pm to 3down10
Didn't 2007 LSU have 2 loses and a bunch of close calls? That kind of explains why it was an anomaly, they won the title only because no one else wanted it that year, in other words everyone else lost also, and I think Kansas had what 1 loss but was not accepted as a title contender and finished 7th behind 6 two loss teams.
They beat Florida by 4, Tenn. and Bama by 7 and Auburn 6.
And their two losses were both in 3 OT to Kentucky and Arkansas.
Those Two OT game which made their defensive scoring states shoot up much higher may have thrown of the numbers also, Kentucky scored 43 and Arkansas 50.
They beat Florida by 4, Tenn. and Bama by 7 and Auburn 6.
And their two losses were both in 3 OT to Kentucky and Arkansas.
Those Two OT game which made their defensive scoring states shoot up much higher may have thrown of the numbers also, Kentucky scored 43 and Arkansas 50.
Posted on 1/14/26 at 11:35 am to OU Guy
Yes but it was something like the eventual champion had both an offense and defense in their top 20. It was for however long they were doing it. Was about 5 years ago so not sure if the streak still stands.
Not top 3 but Basketball has a lot more teams and upsets are more frequent.
ETA: it is 21 out of last 22 champions were ranked in the top 10 defense and offense of Kenpom. Only outlier was 2014 UConn. It’s easier with football because there is no wild upsets. You have to be legit to get there.
Not top 3 but Basketball has a lot more teams and upsets are more frequent.
ETA: it is 21 out of last 22 champions were ranked in the top 10 defense and offense of Kenpom. Only outlier was 2014 UConn. It’s easier with football because there is no wild upsets. You have to be legit to get there.
This post was edited on 1/14/26 at 11:41 am
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