Started By
Message
Bauertology Bubble Watch Breakdown - SEC
Posted on 2/10/25 at 11:32 am
Posted on 2/10/25 at 11:32 am
Bauertology - Bubble Watch Breakdown
SEC
Is the 2024-25 SEC the greatest conference in modern college basketball history? People are asking. And it’s not the kind of ridiculous, engagement-farming, obviously-the-answer-is-no kind of asking. There’s a legitimate argument to be made here. This year’s SEC rates the highest of any conference since KenPom started tracking data in 1997, with an expected net rating for a team that goes .500 in league play of +21.65. Since the turn of the century, only the 2004 ACC is in the same ballpark with a score of +20.32. That ACC squeezed six of its nine teams into March, each one earning a 6 seed or better. On a per-team and overall basis, this SEC may blow that mark out of the water. As of present moment, it’s completely realistic to expect the SEC to get as many as 13 or 14 teams into March, obliterating the previous single-conference high of 11, famously established by the Big East in 2011. Yes, the stacking of 16- and 18-team super-conferences is undeniably the main factor at play here. But when your league goes a combined 184-24 in non-conference play—a winning rate just shy of 90%… You’d be a liar to say you’re not impressed.
Considering this data, it should come as no surprise then that the SEC is already teeming with locks a month-plus out from Selection Sunday. Just as unsurprising is that Auburn is at the top of that list. The Tigers possess far and away the best résumé in the land, even after Saturday’s shocking home loss to Florida, as a Dec. 4 defeat at Duke is only other mistake on a 21-2 slate replete with top-shelf victories. Auburn’s 12 in the uppermost quadrant is four more than second place, already eclipsing the selection day totals of every team in 2024, save for Houston and eventual champion UConn. They’re lapping the field, y’all.
Elsewhere, hated rival Alabama has been nearly as impressive, their blazing tempo and high-octane offense (staples of the Nate Oats regime) lifting the Crimson Tide to team sheet marks worthy of a top-tier team. And Tennessee is not far behind; though the Volunteers always provide the perfect foil to the Tide with their slow, methodical pace and strait-jacket-level defense, their style of play works the same wonders, as the Vols place top-5 in all résumé and efficiency measures, with eight Quad 1 wins to boot. Florida also finds itself among the CBB elite, Saturday’s stunner at Neville perfectly displaying the Gators’ balanced offensive attack, which has translated into top-of-the-line metrics and a spiffy collection of Quad 1 and 2 victories that have kept Todd Golden’s squad firmly in the conversation for a 1 seed by season’s end. There’s Texas A&M, too, the Aggies playing easily their best ball of the Buzz Williams era. Though they still haven’t shaken the shooting woes of Buzzball teams prior (dead last in the SEC in FG%), they’ve made up for that deficiency in droves with timely offensive rebounding and the league’s second-best defense, firmly entrenching themselves in the protected seed conversation, tied for the third-most Q1 victories in the land. Last but not least (well, definitely least of this group) is Ole Miss, who just squeezes in as my final lock of the week, off the back of tight résumé metrics, solid efficiency numbers, a 9-6 record in Q1/2, and a mammoth win at Coleman Coliseum on Jan. 14 that will carry the Rebels across the finish line, regardless of what happens between now and March. As it stands, Ole Miss is not only in line for its first bid since 2019 but also its best overall seed since the Rebs’ last Sweet Sixteen appearance in 2001.
That’s six sensational squads in lock heaven—easily the most by one conference in Week 1 Bubble Watch—that we thankfully no longer need to write an iota about over the next five weeks… but, alas, the verbosity has only just begun, given the eight other teams popping up below in “safe” or “bubble” range. Buckle in.
Kentucky
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Kentucky fans probably don’t want to hear it, but this year’s Wildcats bunch shares a lot of similarities with the recent Calipari teams that got him driven out of Lexington. Not in roster construction, of course; Coach Cal’s Kentucky squads were always very heavy on freshman talent, while Mark Pope’s first-year UK group sees seniors gathering about 90% of the minutes. But everything else checks the boxes: explosive offense, porous and often counterproductive defense, landmark victories in the early season, befuddling losses in conference play…. I mean, isn’t last Saturday’s stinker vs. Arkansas exactly the kind of game that Cal’s Cats would have lost? And if you’re still not convinced, let’s review the résumé. Kentucky in 2024 earned a protected seed behind results and predictive metrics both hovering around 20, as well as an underwhelming .500 record against Quad 1/2 opposition, though they made up for it by being elite against the best of the best with six Quad 1A wins. Now in 2025, Kentucky is… looking at a protected seed behind results and predictive metrics both hovering around 20 yeah yeah yeah you get it. Identical! This is simply what you were meant to be. And if that’s any indication, then a lock is soon to be in Kentucky’s future. (As is a first-round upset to a double-digit seed… you take with the good with the bad.)
Missouri
Sometimes, a little patience is all you need. It would have been very easy for Missouri’s athletic staff and fanbase to get into a tizzy over the Tigers’ 0-18 showing in conference last season, a year removed from earning an NCAA Tournament 7 seed in Dennis Gates’ debut campaign. But Mizzou stuck with their guy, and that decision has paid dividends. The Tigers’ ascent from winless SEC afterthought to legitimate double-bye contender and near-NCAAT lock has been exceptional to watch play out in real time. Last weekend’s losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M may have dampened the celebration for now, but get this: the worst is all behind, as Mizzou is favored in each of its eight remaining games, per T-Rank. The Tigers only need to win half of those, if even that, to guarantee themselves a spot in the Madness. I think they’ll fly past that mark with ease.
SEC
Is the 2024-25 SEC the greatest conference in modern college basketball history? People are asking. And it’s not the kind of ridiculous, engagement-farming, obviously-the-answer-is-no kind of asking. There’s a legitimate argument to be made here. This year’s SEC rates the highest of any conference since KenPom started tracking data in 1997, with an expected net rating for a team that goes .500 in league play of +21.65. Since the turn of the century, only the 2004 ACC is in the same ballpark with a score of +20.32. That ACC squeezed six of its nine teams into March, each one earning a 6 seed or better. On a per-team and overall basis, this SEC may blow that mark out of the water. As of present moment, it’s completely realistic to expect the SEC to get as many as 13 or 14 teams into March, obliterating the previous single-conference high of 11, famously established by the Big East in 2011. Yes, the stacking of 16- and 18-team super-conferences is undeniably the main factor at play here. But when your league goes a combined 184-24 in non-conference play—a winning rate just shy of 90%… You’d be a liar to say you’re not impressed.
Considering this data, it should come as no surprise then that the SEC is already teeming with locks a month-plus out from Selection Sunday. Just as unsurprising is that Auburn is at the top of that list. The Tigers possess far and away the best résumé in the land, even after Saturday’s shocking home loss to Florida, as a Dec. 4 defeat at Duke is only other mistake on a 21-2 slate replete with top-shelf victories. Auburn’s 12 in the uppermost quadrant is four more than second place, already eclipsing the selection day totals of every team in 2024, save for Houston and eventual champion UConn. They’re lapping the field, y’all.
Elsewhere, hated rival Alabama has been nearly as impressive, their blazing tempo and high-octane offense (staples of the Nate Oats regime) lifting the Crimson Tide to team sheet marks worthy of a top-tier team. And Tennessee is not far behind; though the Volunteers always provide the perfect foil to the Tide with their slow, methodical pace and strait-jacket-level defense, their style of play works the same wonders, as the Vols place top-5 in all résumé and efficiency measures, with eight Quad 1 wins to boot. Florida also finds itself among the CBB elite, Saturday’s stunner at Neville perfectly displaying the Gators’ balanced offensive attack, which has translated into top-of-the-line metrics and a spiffy collection of Quad 1 and 2 victories that have kept Todd Golden’s squad firmly in the conversation for a 1 seed by season’s end. There’s Texas A&M, too, the Aggies playing easily their best ball of the Buzz Williams era. Though they still haven’t shaken the shooting woes of Buzzball teams prior (dead last in the SEC in FG%), they’ve made up for that deficiency in droves with timely offensive rebounding and the league’s second-best defense, firmly entrenching themselves in the protected seed conversation, tied for the third-most Q1 victories in the land. Last but not least (well, definitely least of this group) is Ole Miss, who just squeezes in as my final lock of the week, off the back of tight résumé metrics, solid efficiency numbers, a 9-6 record in Q1/2, and a mammoth win at Coleman Coliseum on Jan. 14 that will carry the Rebels across the finish line, regardless of what happens between now and March. As it stands, Ole Miss is not only in line for its first bid since 2019 but also its best overall seed since the Rebs’ last Sweet Sixteen appearance in 2001.
That’s six sensational squads in lock heaven—easily the most by one conference in Week 1 Bubble Watch—that we thankfully no longer need to write an iota about over the next five weeks… but, alas, the verbosity has only just begun, given the eight other teams popping up below in “safe” or “bubble” range. Buckle in.
Kentucky
The more things change, the more they stay the same. Kentucky fans probably don’t want to hear it, but this year’s Wildcats bunch shares a lot of similarities with the recent Calipari teams that got him driven out of Lexington. Not in roster construction, of course; Coach Cal’s Kentucky squads were always very heavy on freshman talent, while Mark Pope’s first-year UK group sees seniors gathering about 90% of the minutes. But everything else checks the boxes: explosive offense, porous and often counterproductive defense, landmark victories in the early season, befuddling losses in conference play…. I mean, isn’t last Saturday’s stinker vs. Arkansas exactly the kind of game that Cal’s Cats would have lost? And if you’re still not convinced, let’s review the résumé. Kentucky in 2024 earned a protected seed behind results and predictive metrics both hovering around 20, as well as an underwhelming .500 record against Quad 1/2 opposition, though they made up for it by being elite against the best of the best with six Quad 1A wins. Now in 2025, Kentucky is… looking at a protected seed behind results and predictive metrics both hovering around 20 yeah yeah yeah you get it. Identical! This is simply what you were meant to be. And if that’s any indication, then a lock is soon to be in Kentucky’s future. (As is a first-round upset to a double-digit seed… you take with the good with the bad.)
Missouri
Sometimes, a little patience is all you need. It would have been very easy for Missouri’s athletic staff and fanbase to get into a tizzy over the Tigers’ 0-18 showing in conference last season, a year removed from earning an NCAA Tournament 7 seed in Dennis Gates’ debut campaign. But Mizzou stuck with their guy, and that decision has paid dividends. The Tigers’ ascent from winless SEC afterthought to legitimate double-bye contender and near-NCAAT lock has been exceptional to watch play out in real time. Last weekend’s losses to Tennessee and Texas A&M may have dampened the celebration for now, but get this: the worst is all behind, as Mizzou is favored in each of its eight remaining games, per T-Rank. The Tigers only need to win half of those, if even that, to guarantee themselves a spot in the Madness. I think they’ll fly past that mark with ease.
This post was edited on 2/10/25 at 11:33 am
1
Posted on 2/10/25 at 11:32 am to SummerOfGeorge
Mississippi State
OK, so maybe Mississippi State isn’t quite the world beater that many thought they were during their 14-1 start; crack up that hype to the Bulldogs’ 90-57 beatdown of Pitt, a win that has gotten less impressive with time as the Panthers have faded. But that’s alright! In this SEC that takes no prisoners, MSU merely needs to be above average to coast to a fine seed. And that they’ve done; though they haven’t landed a blow on any of the teams ahead of them in the standings (other than Jan. 18’s important OT win at the Hump over arch-rival Ole Miss), the Bulldogs have performed admirably against the league’s lower half, notably going 3-0 on the road against such opposition. That’ll serve you perfectly well in this SEC, where quality wins grow on trees. Keep up that trend—and hopefully snag one or two of the remaining possible mega-wins for posterity’s sake—and Mississippi State will be a-OK come selection day.
Oklahoma
Oklahoma badly needs a bid this year. A program that was almost always a shoo-in during the Lon Kruger days has not been back since ol’ Lon retired in 2021, though they have come excruciatingly close, twice appearing in the selection committee’s First Four Out in three years under Porter Moser. And it seems like the Sooners maybe drifting in that direction once again, as their sensational 13-0 performance in the non-con has quickly subsided to the tune of a 3-7 start in their inaugural SEC season. Unlike most middle-of-the-road P5 schools that underperform out-of-conference and gather their quality victories via league play, Oklahoma has done the opposite, their neutral-court W’s over Arizona, Michigan, and Louisville helping to keep OU afloat while the SEC has spawned the Sooners just one Q1 win (Jan. 25 at Arkansas). It’s enough to just barely keep Oklahoma inside “safe” territory for now, but if things don’t turn around quickly here, they won’t be staying in that middle category much longer.
Vanderbilt
Another Coach of the Year candidate right here—Mark Byington takes James Madison to the big dance for the first time in over a decade, then heads off to NET #202 Vanderbilt and brings the Commodores within striking distance of their first tournament bid in eight years, while playing inside arguably the single most difficult conference of all time. Gotta love it! Two problems, though: 1) Vanderbilt really cannot afford to be close to the cutline with that 330th-ranked non-conference schedule hanging around its neck all albatross-like, and 2) Vandy’s next six games are all against teams that I’ve either locked today or designated as near-locks, each of which will surely be giving their all in hopes of landing one of those coveted protected seeds. It’s a very, very tall task for a team that is light on postseason experience! But these Commies have already knocked off Tennessee and Kentucky each once before inside Memorial Gym. Can they display the same bravado when taking to the road? We’ll find out soon enough.
Texas
Texas’ decision to jump ship for the warmer waters of the SEC went swimmingly for the football team in year one. Now the men’s basketball team is waiting for the same sunny reception. It’s certainly not a good sign that the Longhorns have seemingly gotten worse every year under Rodney Terry, falling from 2 seed in 2023, to 7 seed in 2024, to projected play-in team in 2025. And I suppose old habits die hard, as Texas brought along a very Big 12-esque 280th-ranked non-conference schedule; a problem, considering the Longhorns are just 4-7 in their new home. Even the most egregious NCSOS merchants of Big 12s past got to .500 in league play! Fortunately for the Horns, they probably don’t need to reach that mark to end up in the tournament, as 8-10 and perhaps even 7-11 will suffice. But given their preseason ranking of 19th, surely expectations were a little higher than battling for a bid on the bubble, no?
Georgia
Consider me in the camp firmly rooting for Georgia, a long-suffering men’s basketball program, to make its first NCAA Tournament appearance in a decade and collect its first NCAAT victory since 2002. Consider me also in the camp highly skeptical as to whether or not this year’s Bulldogs can make it happen. Things looked good in year three of the Mike White era following a 72-62 effort over Oklahoma on Jan. 11, placing the Bulldogs at 14-2 overall and 2-1 to start SEC play. But in this madhouse of a conference, it’s sink or swim, and Georgia has done much more of the former lately, their only wins in the past month coming over South Carolina and LSU; i.e., the only two SEC teams not present in Bauer’s Bubble Watch. Not good! On a team sheet that features a 1-5 road record and the #233 non-con strength of schedule, a fateful victory in Nassau over suddenly soaring St. John’s just before Thanksgiving is just about the only saving grace. Have to convert somewhere across these next five games, all of which fall into Quad 1.
Arkansas
Maybe John Calipari isn’t washed quite yet. Such allegations began pouring as Coach Cal failed to lead his transfer-laden Razorbacks to any noteworthy non-conference victories (save for a Dec. 10 squeaker over Michigan at MSG), before kicking off conference play to a 1-6 mark, putting into question the Hogs’ ability to land an NIT bid, let alone an NCAA invite. But lo and behold, the old Cat still has some new tricks. Last Saturday’s triumphant return to Rupp was just as surprising as it was extraordinarily funny, and then Arkansas kept the ball rolling with its second Quad 1 road dub in as many tries, holding on late at Texas to lift this profile to sudden relevancy. Saturday’s return to Earth via defeat to Alabama (a game that Arkansas only lost by four but trailed by as much as 15 with five minutes left) probably puts a lid on the Hogs’ sudden ascent and keeps them outside the projected field for now, given a shoddy 3-7 SEC clip and aforementioned lack of non-con success. But things have gotten pretty interesting in Fayetteville in short order.
This post was edited on 2/10/25 at 11:33 am
Posted on 2/10/25 at 11:34 am to SummerOfGeorge
Just stick posting the NET. This shite you just posted is garbage. DJ is no Joey Brackets.
Posted on 2/10/25 at 11:36 am to WildcatMike
quote:
Just stick posting the NET
The NET is not some end all be all. Plenty of top 40 NET teams have missed the tournament - big schools (Clemson, Texas, Texas A&M, Oklahoma) and small schools (Indiana State, North Texas).
This post was edited on 2/10/25 at 11:38 am
Posted on 2/10/25 at 11:38 am to SummerOfGeorge
Oklahoma and Kentucky do not belong in the same category.
I know, lots of basketball to be played but right now, Kentucky will get in and Oklahoma will be clinging to the outside of the bubble.
Posted on 2/10/25 at 11:41 am to AUFANATL
quote:
Oklahoma and Kentucky do not belong in the same category.
I know, lots of basketball to be played but right now, Kentucky will get in and Oklahoma will be clinging to the outside of the bubble.
They're on the opposite edges of the same category. Kentucky is one big win away (Tuesday as an example) from basically locking things up, but they are 5-5 in the league with only 1 real gimme game left on their schedule (vs LSU) and 7 games of varying difficulty (from @ Texas/vs Vandy to @ Alabama/vs Auburn). So you can't quite lock them up yet, but they have a pretty big margin for error.
Oklahoma needs to finish their last 8 at 4-4 at a minimum. I'd probably have them in the bubble category and not the safe category.
This post was edited on 2/10/25 at 11:45 am
Posted on 2/10/25 at 11:45 am to SummerOfGeorge
A wannabe that calls his info as “ BAUERTOLOGY” is lame and a poser.
This post was edited on 2/10/25 at 11:46 am
Posted on 2/10/25 at 11:49 am to WildcatMike
Just read the damn write ups that discuss the resumes and teams. They're well written and interesting. Or don't, and just GTFO of the thread and go complain somewhere else about NET and Lunardi (I mean LOfvckinL). Good gawd man.
Posted on 2/10/25 at 12:04 pm to SummerOfGeorge
His take on State is spot on. We have a good team but not a great team. Sitting at 5-5, we have 4 games left against teams in the upper half and 4 games against teams at the bottom of the conference.
Florida and at Ole Miss this week. Need to find a way to go 1-1. Gets easier down the stretch.
Florida and at Ole Miss this week. Need to find a way to go 1-1. Gets easier down the stretch.
Page 1 of 1
Popular
Back to top
Follow SECRant for SEC Football News