re: Is anyone outside of Baton Rouge realistically picking LSU to win?

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That could mean too many people were taking Alabama and the books are moving the line to get more even action.

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I think your correct, it was -6.5 when it started so people bet LSU, now it is -3. I always thought Bama about -6 or -7 was the spread. That makes Bama a 3-4 point favorite on neutral field and a pickem in Baton Rouge which is how I personally see this game.