re: ESPN: Chance to Make the College Football Playoff

quote:

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even in all the wacky, crazy, utterly ridiculous scenarios you can come up wtih that would give bama even an inkling of a chance...you're ignoring the fact that UT would still have a better resume and would go above bama. Both teams are 10-2. Both teams didn't win their division. Bama lost to the 2 best teams they played and their best win is...uh, texas? Not only does UT have a victory over LSU on the resume, they beat bama head to ehad.

So even if we have massive chaos bama is still at the back of the line

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The computer doesn't measure that - it will see that, most likely, Alabama is now ahead of Tennessee and each team has one game remaining. A game that Alabama is a bit more likely to win (94.5%) than Tennessee (93.2%).

The computer would simply see Alabama ranked above Tennessee, presume both teams win, and therefor has no reason to place Tennessee above Alabama in that scenario.

I'm not ignoring Tennessee at all; I'm simply stating that from a computer's perspective, a 9-2 team with 1 more incredibly likely win doesn't get many chances to jump above another 9-2 team with 1 more incredible likely win.

It's a simple simulation model that gets run thousands of times, and current it is running that scenario model based on Tennessee being ranked behind Alabama. It's not going to retroactively apply games already played - it will presume the playoff committee has already done so. If the committee goes against trend and keeps Tennessee above Alabama after getting wrecked by South Carolina, then the model will change drastically and Tennessee will almost assuredly flip with Alabama in those odds.

Rightly or wrongly UT will be punished bc their QB is hurt