re: Aggy Recruiting

I know quite a bit about statistically modeling and methods for statistical prediction.

And given the average is 6, actually 5.3 I am rounding up, it would be a statistical anomaly for Aggy to finish below 10 with their current standard of deviation.

However, three data points isn’t a lot of data, so the error in estimation here is high, but even with this error, it doesn’t indicate the fall off the cliff results you are hoping for.

Jimbo has finished 9, 6 then 1, in that order, since he arrived and had a full season to recruit. To break that trend and jump out of the top ten would be unlikely.

To finish five, actually would break the trend considerably or even to finish top ten. Mathematically speaking.

It’s possible they could finish outside the top ten, but it would be the one of the worse finishes Jimbo has had if that occurred barring his first season which he had limited time to recruit in.

And as a science guy, with my football hat off, that doesn’t seem likely unless something causes it, like an investigation or a really bad season.

And for the record, I don’t give two itoas, what your preferences are. No, even less than that, not even one.